Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 9 Predictions

By Lawrence Smelser

Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Commanders Week 9 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Vikings will travel to Washington D.C. on Sunday to take on the Commanders in an NFC matchup. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. EST and Fox is broadcasting the contest. 

Minnesota has been one of the more surprising teams this season. In his first year as head coach, Kevin O’Connell has led the team to a 6-1 record which is tied for second in the entire league with Buffalo. The purple and white currently lead the NFC North.

Washington had a rough 1-4 start to its year and many experts believed their season was a lost cause. Riverboat Ron’s squad has quietly strung together a three-game winning streak and is hoping to earn a postseason berth come January. 

The Vikings enter the game on a high note after beating the Cardinals 34-26 last weekend. It was the team’s fifth-consecutive victory. Despite the one-score margin, Minnesota never trailed in the contest. With 8:36 remaining in the fourth quarter, Kirk Cousins found K.J. Osborn for a 5-yard touchdown that extended the lead to eight points. Coordinator Ed Donatell’s unit did its job and shut out Kyler Murray for the rest of the game. 

Things didn’t look good for Washington as it trailed Indianapolis 16-7 with just under five minutes to play. A Joey Slye 28-yard field goal with 4:55 left on the clock cut the lead to six. Taylor Heinicke heaved up a deep ball with 41 seconds to Terry McLaurin who made the contested catch at the one-yard line. The backup quarterback then punched it in for the game-winning score to finish the 16-10 comeback win. 

Oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook are favoring the Vikings by three points. On the moneyline, Washington is +135 and Minnesota sits at -160 odds. Bettors have put 58% of their bets on the Commanders to cover and 77% of the money on the Vikings to win straight up.

Players to watch in the Vikings vs. Commanders contest

Vikings

Justin Jefferson: The 2020 No. 22 overall pick has lit up opposing secondaries this campaign. Jefferson has recorded 52 (5th in the NFL) receptions for 752 yards (3rd) and two touchdowns. The LSU product is averaging 14.5 yards per catch and has eclipsed 98 yards receiving in five-of-seven games in 2022-2023. Jefferson will look to continue his streak against Washington’s 16th-ranked pass defense allowing 214 yards per outing.

Commanders

Taylor Heinicke: The journeyman quarterback has found a home in Washington and might have created a quarterback controversy when Carson Wentz returns from injury. Heinicke has won his two starts this season, the same amount as Wentz did in six games. The 29-year-old is completing 67.8% of his passes and has a 46.8 QBR compared to Wentz’s 33.3. The Old Dominion product is now 9-9 as a starter with the Commanders.

Our NFL bet of the week for the Vikings vs. Commanders

ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.

Minnesota vs. Washington Spread: Vikings Alternate Spread -2.5 @ -135

O’Connell’s addition in the offseason to replace Mike Zimmer has worked like a charm so far. Minnesota’s front office has to be highly pleased with their decision to bring in the Super Bowl-winning coordinator from the Rams. 

O’Connell played a large role in Stafford’s success last season and is doing so this year with Cousins. The Michigan State product hasn’t lit up the stats sheet but he has found a way to move the chains and limit turnovers. So far in 2022-2023, Cousins has thrown for 1,734 yards, 11 touchdowns and (T-10th in the NFL) five interceptions. The 34-year-old has a passer rating of 49.7 (16th).

Minnesota has the ninth-ranked scoring offense posting an average of 24.7 points per game and is 15th in total offense 345.7 yards per contest. Defensively, they’re allowing opponents to score 20.6 PPG (14th) and rank 28th in total defense (383.1 YPG). 

After allowing 23.8 points per game in its first five outings, Washington’s defense has stepped up in its last three games by limiting opponents to 14.7 points. One factor may be the quality of opponents. Green Bay has no receivers, the Bears have Justin Fields (ranked 23rd in QBR) and Indianapolis played Sam Ehlinger in his first-ever start. 

It’ll be a lot tougher to face a Vikings team with a veteran quarterback and a plethora of weapons: Pro Bowler Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. Minnesota also recently traded for dynamic receiving tight end T.J. Hockenson. 

The Vikings are 4-1 straight up in their last five matchups versus the Commanders are 6-1 in the last seven games against NFC teams. Washington is 3-6 in its last seven contests against NFC North opposition. This season Minnesota is 3-4 ATS and Washington is 4-4.

Our pick at ESTNN is to take the alternate spread (-2.5) in favor of Minnesota on PointsBet. The sportsbook is offering -135 odds for the selection. 

bet on nfl with Pointsbet >

Minnesota vs. Washington odds: Game total over 43.5 @ -110

Neither of these two teams has an impressive defensive unit. In four of the five previous Minnesota matchups, the total has gone over 43.5. In half of the eight games Washington has played, the total has gone over 43.5.

The game totals were low for the Commanders against the Bears and Colts in two of the three previous weeks due to the mediocre quarterback play from the opposition (Ehlinger and Fields.)

We believe it’s wise to take over 43.5 points on BetMGM Sportsbook. The odds are currently set at -110. 

If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 9, read our NFL player props page.

bet on NFL with betmgm