Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Game 1

The first game of the Jazz vs Mavericks duel in NBA playoffs is scheduled for Saturday in Dallas. Can the Mavs do well without Doncic or will we see a break by the Jazz right away?

After spending most of the regular season as a top 3 seed, the Jazz had a significant drop in form in the last couple of months and they enter these NBA playoffs as the fifth seed in the Western Conference.

Utah Jazz Stats:

Regular Season Record: 49-33

ATS: 33-45-4

Over/Under: 37-43-2

Meanwhile, the Mavs were in great form in the last third of the season and they managed to climb to the fourth seed. They finished the regular season with four straight wins and they were 8-2 in the last 10 games.

Dallas Mavericks Stats:

Regular Season Record: 53-30

ATS: 46-35-1

Over/Under: 31-50-1

So, here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s NBA matchup between the Utah Jazz and Dallas Mavericks.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Game Info

Date/Time: Saturday, April 16, 2022, 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Odds Analysis

Despite the fact that the Mavs are hosting this game, the Jazz are the favorites in this game by 5.5 points. This is hardly a surprise since we already know that Luka Doncic is out of this game, which certainly tips the scale in the favor of Utah Jazz. These two teams split the series 2-2 in the regular season, but the Mavs have won on the spread in three of those four duels.

Meanwhile, the Jazz vs Mavericks odds for total points are in line with our expectations. The points total is set at 209.5 points, which seems a bit low at a first glance, but both teams were in Top 10 in defensive rating in the regular season. That being said, all four h2h duels between these two teams in the regular season have gone over this line.

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Picks

So, we know some of the most important stats for this game. Now it’s time to check our NBA betting picks for Jazz vs Mavs:

Utah Jazz to Cover the Spread (-5.5) @ -110 (Odds via DraftKings)

The Jazz have struggled a bit in the last couple of months and if Luka Doncic was healthy, the Mavericks would be the clear favorites in the series, especially in games at home. However, Doncic is not ready and the Jazz seem like the logical choice when it comes to Game 1 of the series.

That being said, we still don’t know if Donovan Mitchell will play in this game since he is listed as ill at the moment, but we expect him to suit up even if not at 100 percent since this is a great opportunity for the Jazz to take a win on the road in the series.

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Under 209.5 Total Points @ -110 (Odds via BetMGM)

We said earlier that these two teams are in Top 10 in defensive rating, which is why the line for total points is a bit lower than what you probably expected. Despite this and the fact that all four regular season duels between Dallas and Utah have gone over 209.5 points, we expect this game to go under.

First of all, the Mavs will be without their primary offensive weapon, Luka Doncic. Everything in the Mavs team revolves around him, so the Jazz will have an easier job limiting the number of points that the Mavericks will score. Additionally, the Mavs will have to play even better defense than they did in the regular season, which we expect to happen since Luka Doncic is not known as a great defender.

Lastly, this is a playoff game, which usually means that we see fewer points compared to regular season games. That also makes NBA playoff games more exciting to watch, so check our list of live streaming options for Jazz vs Mavs.

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Our Bonus Player Prop Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 20.5 Total Points @ -115 (Odds via FanDuel)

With Luka Doncic out of this game, the Mavericks will have to find another source of points if they want to stay competitive and hope for a win. With another of the team’s main scorers Hardaway Jr. also being out at this time, the Mavs will likely rely on Jalen Brunson.

The young guard had a real breakout season and he was only behind Luka Doncic in terms of points per game for the Mavericks. Spencer Dinwiddie will also have an important role as a scorer here, but he is too streaky to bet on, unlike Brunson.

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