Titans vs. Packers Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 11 Predictions

Titans vs. Packers Week 11 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Tennessee Titans (6-3) have won six of their last seven games and just got Ryan Tannehill back on Sunday in a 17-10 win over Denver. The Green Bay Packers (4-6) avoided a six-game losing streak by making an improbable 14-point comeback in the fourth quarter against Dallas before winning 31-28 in overtime to possibly salvage their season.

It was a game for Aaron Rodgers unlike anything we’ve seen before from him. He threw just 19 passes in regulation and one in overtime, but he found rookie wideout Christian Watson for three big touchdowns. The Packers are the second team since 1940 to win a game without throwing more than 20 passes despite trailing by at least 14 points to start the fourth quarter.

Could this be a new look for the Green Bay offense to make up for the injuries at wide receiver? It actually puts them closer to Tennessee’s preferred offense, just with two backs (Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon) being featured instead of one (Derrick Henry).

Speaking of Dillon, it was two seasons ago in 2020 when he had the best game of his career with 124 yards and two touchdowns on a Sunday night against these Titans. It was a snow game and a 40-14 blowout where the Packers looked like the more physical team. Green Bay rushed for 234 yards to Tennessee’s 156 yards.

The Titans are hoping this game won’t be a repeat of that, though it does expect to be cold again (low 20s). Just no snow this time.

The NFL Week 11 odds have the Packers as a 3-point home favorite with a total of 41 points. Will the Packers stack some wins, or does Tennessee deliver as an underdog again?

Players to watch in the Titans vs. Packers game

Tennessee Titans

Derrick Henry: Eyes are always on King Henry, though he had just 53 yards on 19 carries in the win over Denver. That snapped a five-game streak of 100-yard rushing games. Henry has not been held under 75 rushing yards in consecutive weeks since late in the 2018 season. He has to deliver against a Green Bay defense that has allowed over 115 rushing yards in all but one game this season.

Green Bay Packers

Christian Watson: What does the rookie have for an encore after 107 yards and three touchdowns against Dallas? He could barely catch the ball or stay healthy on the field before Sunday, but Rodgers should have some trust in him now after that spectacular game.

Our Best NFL Bets for the Titans vs. Packers game

We have two NFL Week 11 predictions for this Thursday night matchup between non-conference teams.

Titans vs. Packers Point Spread Pick: Packers -3 (-115)

The Titans vs. Packers spread opened with the Packers as a 1.5-point home favorite before moving quickly up to 3-point favorites. However, there are several reasons to like the Titans in this one:

• Titans are 7-2 ATS, tied with the Giants for the best spread record this season.
• Derrick Henry against the No. 26 rush defense by yards (28th by yards per carry).
• Titans have the best defense on third down, allowing offenses to convert 27.9% of the time (Green Bay’s offense ranks No. 18).
• Titans score a touchdown in the red zone at the highest rate (76.2%).
• Only Buffalo has scored more than 22 points against the Titans this year.

But even with Tannehill back, we know these Titans are a limited offense without much of a passing game. That Dallas comeback felt like something clicked for the Packers, and we know this team is used to winning big in these prime-time spots. There are other reasons to like the Packers too:

• Packers are 19-11 ATS (63.3%) as a home favorite under Matt LaFleur, the second-best record in NFL since 2019.
• Since 2016, Rodgers is 14-1 in home prime-time starts in the regular season, and Green Bay has scored at least 23 points in all 15 games.
• Tennessee’s Mike Vrabel is awesome as a road underdog of more than four points in his career (10-3 ATS), but as a road underdog of fewer than four points, he is only 4-6 ATS and 4-6 SU, including that 40-14 rout at the hands of the 2020 Packers.
• Tennessee has never scored more than 24 points in a game this season and has scored 17 points in three straight games.
• Titans have a league-low 12 points in the fourth quarter this season.

It may be a low-scoring grind, but I am trusting Rodgers to figure things out at home and take advantage of a team that doesn’t score many points at all late in games. This could be one that ends in a push but take the Packers to cover for your NFL bet of the week.

Remember to check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

Packers Prop: AJ Dillon Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

This pick is a bit more than hoping that lighting strikes twice in the same spot. The best rushing game of AJ Dillon’s career was easily in 2020 against the Titans when he had 124 yards and two touchdowns. His next closest game was 81 yards against the Steelers last year.

But this is a low number (33.5 yards) for a prop that Dillon has hit eight times in 10 games this season. Granted, he barely hit it twice with two games of 34 yards, but he also just missed it a ninth time with 32 yards in Tampa Bay.

The Packers look like an offense that wants to run it more while the receivers (Romeo Doubs and Randall Cobb) are still thin with injuries. Dillon just had 65 rushing yards against Dallas, his second most this season.

The Titans are definitely an elite run defense. They rank No. 2 in yards allowed and No. 3 in yards per carry. They have held their last seven opponents under 100 rushing yards. That is scary, but this game reeks of a running night with the cold weather, short week to prepare, and Green Bay’s situation at receiver and newfound love for the run.

Let’s just hope Aaron Jones doesn’t eat up all the good carries, because Dillon should get enough opportunities to get over 33.5 yards in this one.