Chiefs (-12.5) to cover vs. the Titans Spread
Travis Kelce anytime TD scorer Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 9 matchup preview and current betting lines
The Titans will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face off against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. EST and NBC is broadcasting the contest.
This matchup features two teams with the same records of 5-2 while both leading their respective divisions. Titans starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been ruled out for the contest. The former Texas A&M product also missed last week’s 17-10 win over Houston due to a hurt ankle. Rookie quarterback Malik Willis will make his second start.
Kansas City is once again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl at 7-1 on most sportsbooks as is Patrick Mahomes to win the MVP. The team sits behind Buffalo (+230) and Philadelphia (+500). Mahomes (+325) trails only Josh Allen, the frontrunner at +125.
The Chiefs are well rested coming off a bye week. Prior to it, the team impressively dominated the 49ers, 44-23 in Santa Clara.
Tennessee enters the game on a high note after beating Houston 17-10 at NRG Stadium. Derrick Henry ran rampant, posting a stat line of 32 rushes for 219 yards and two touchdowns.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel didn’t have much faith in Willis during his first-ever NFL start. Willis only attempted 10 passes in the contest. The Texans knew the Titan’s game plan but still were unable to stop Henry.
The current moneyline odds for this matchup on Caesars Sportsbook are Tennessee (+460) vs. Kansas City (-650). Oddsmakers favor the Chiefs as 12.5-point favorites at -110 odds. Among the public, 52% of spread bets have been placed on the Chiefs to cover and 76% of the money is for them to win straight up.
Players to watch in the Titans vs. Chiefs contest
Derrick Henry: The former Heisman Trophy winner wasn’t able to crack 1,000 yards rushing last season for the fourth year in a row after he was forced to miss nine games with an injury. He rushed for a historic 2,027 yards in 2020. He’s back to his usual semi-truck abilities in 2022, with 166 attempts (1st) for 755 yards (3rd) and seven touchdowns (3rd).
Kadarius Toney: The former 20th overall pick out of Florida in 2021 hasn’t been able to consistently post big numbers as he enters the midway point of year two in the league. Toney has dealt with injuries and a quarterback who doesn’t throw often (Daniel Jones). NFL fans and pundits were in awe though when he posted 10 catches for 189 yards last year against a tough Dallas defense. We’ll see what he can do with a massive upgrade at quarterback.
Our NFL bet of the week for the Titans vs. Chiefs
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
Tennessee vs. Kansas City Spread: Kansas City -12.5 @ -110
Kansas City is stacked from head to toe. Some analysts questioned if Patrick Mahomes would continue to shine when his Pro Bowl receiver, Tyreek Hill, departed for Miami during the offseason. Mahomes has had a stellar year and Hill seems to be enjoying himself (leads the league in receiving) while basking under the Florida sun.
The Chiefs have been dominant this season. They have also kept their two losses close (lost by an average of 3.5 points).
Chiefs 2022-2023 schedule
@ Cardinals 44-21 (W)
Chargers 27-24 (W)
@ Colts 20-17 (L)
@ Buccaneers 41-31 (W)
Raiders 30-29 (W)
Bills 24-20 (L)
@ 49ers 44-23 (W)
Andy Reid has surrounded Mahomes with weapons to fill the void left by Hill. Reid acquired receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling from Pittsburgh and Green Bay. Last week, just before the trade deadline, Kansas City brass successfully traded for disgruntled Giants’ receiver Kadarius Toney. The former second-round pick is expected to make his debut this Sunday.
The Chiefs’ explosive offense ranks first in the NFL in points per game (31.9) and second in total offense (403.3). Defensively, the unit has been subpar and has relied on Mahomes to win shootouts. Kansas City is surrendering 24.6 PPG (23rd) and 369 yards per contest (26th).
The Titans are ninth in the NFL in points allowed (19.8) and 15th in total defense (343.9). On offense, Tennessee has been putrid, the unit ranks dead last in total offense (285.6 YPG) and is scoring 18.9 PPG (24th).
After starting this campaign 0-2, Vrabel’s squad has reeled off five-consecutive wins. The streak has come against the Raiders, Colts, (twice) Commanders and Texans. Three of these four teams all have losing records aside from Washington (4-4).
Kansas City is 2-4 against the spread this year, compared to the Titans (5-2 ATS). A 12.5-point spread is a lot, especially in primetime. Although, it’s a difficult task for a rookie in his second-ever start to keep the game close in hostile territory.
Our pick at ESTNN is to take the Chiefs to cover the 12.5-point spread at home. Caesars Sportsbook is offering -110 odds for the selection.
Titans vs. Chiefs odds: Travis Kelce anytime touchdown scorer yards @ -135
Travis Kelce is Mahomes’ top target. The Pro Bowl tight end and Hill were the 1A and 1B options in past years but after Hill left, he’s clearly become the WR1/TE1.
So far in 2022-2023, Kelce has recorded 47 receptions (T-7th) for 553 yards and seven touchdowns (1st in the NFL). The former Cincinnati star has caught a touchdown in four of seven games this season.
Mahomes loves to target his close friend when he’s in the red area. Kelce has been targeted in the red zone 16 times and has caught 12 of those passes (75% catch rate). The 16 targets equate to 2.3 red zone looks per game.
Kelce didn’t score in the last two contests, so he’s definitely due to break the plane. We believe a good bet is to take the 6-foot-5 athlete to score against the Titans. The prop bet is available on DraftKings Sportsbook at -135 odds.
If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 9, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding Tennessee vs. Kansas City in week 9
Tennessee has never won a Super Bowl. In 2000, the team lost 23-16 to the St. Louis Rams.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL Odds for this week page for more information.
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