Texas vs. Virginia Tech Picks, Odds & Predictions – NCAAB March Madness (03/18)

Texas vs Virginia Tech is one of the closest matchups in the first round of NCAA Tournament 2022. So, check our preview and predictions for this game if you need a bit of help to find the right bet.

Our Texas vs Virginia Tech Betting Odds and Tips

Virginia Tech +1.5 @ -115

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Under 123.5 @ -110

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As we already mentioned, the Texas vs Virginia Tech matchup in the first round of NCAA Tournament 2022 is probably one of the toughest games to predict. Texas Longhorns enter the tournament with a 21-11 record and they are the 6th seed in the East Region, while Virginia Tech Hokies are at 23-12 and 11th seed in the conference.

However, it was Virginia Tech who earned the automatic bid by winning the ACC Tournament for the first time in their history, while Texas was given an at-large bid. The two teams are pretty evenly matched, but Virginia Tech comes here in better form. After all, they are on a four-game winning streak, including the win over Duke in the ACC Tournament final.

So, here are our picks and predictions for Friday’s NCAAB matchup between Texas and Virginia Tech. The odds are provided by BetMGM.

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Texas vs Virginia Tech Game Info

South Region – First Round: No. 6 Texas vs No. 11 Virginia Tech

Tipoff Time: 3:30 p.m. Friday, March 18


Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI.

Texas vs Virginia Tech

Texas vs Virginia Tech Odds Analysis

The odds for this game didn’t change much from where they started. For example, Texas started as a 1.5 favorite, but have since moved to +1.5, depending on the bookie. Some bookies still keep the spread +0.5 on one or the other team. And since the spread is so low one way or another, perhaps going with moneyline is a good choice for this game.

Meanwhile, the total opened at 126 points, but that’s changed now and it’s gone down to 123.5 at the lowest, although some bookies still hold it at 124.5. The reason is clear – we are not the only ones who expect a low-scoring game and so the line for total points is slowly but surely going down, as is often the case with March Madness betting.

Texas vs Virginia Tech Predictions

So, we’ve talked about some basic information related to the Texas vs Virginia Tech duel and now it’s time to discuss our predictions for this game in more detail:

Virginia Tech to Win on Spread (+1.5) @ -115

As we mentioned before, the Hokies are on a four-game winning streak and they enter the tournament after winning the ACC Tournament by upsetting Duke in the final – which was basically their only way to get a chance to play in the NCAA Tournament since they didn’t have the best of seasons. In fact, the team was 5-11 at one point in the season, but then everything seemed to click for Virginia Tech and they’ve been in great form ever since.

On the other hand, Texas enters the tournament in completely different mood. The team has lost their last three games in a row, including a surprising loss in the Big 12 Tournament quarter-finals to TCU. So, the question is, can Texas get back in form in time for the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Or will their poor form continue, especially in a clash against a team as hot as Virginia Tech.

We think that the latter will come true. After all, Virginia Tech is high on confidence after their ACC Tournament win and they will enter this game with a strong belief of winning. Meanwhile, the Longhorns are certainly down in the dumps right now and while their coach Chris Beard, who played in the Championship Game in 2019 with Texas Tech, knows how to deal with the pressure, we just don’t see them pulling out of their slump at the moment.

Under 123.5 Total Points

So, the next up is points total, which is pretty low for this game. In fact, we were feeling a bit uncertain when we saw the line for total points, but, ultimately, you have to go with your gut. And our gut is saying that we’re about to witness a slow, hard-fought game where free-flowing offense is a thing of fairytales. Don’t get us wrong, we always enjoy a good slug fest, especially with two quality teams such as Texas and Virginia Tech.

So, let’s start with Texas. Their coach Chris Beard had a lot of success using his No Middle defense at Texas Tech, and the things started great for the Longhorns defensively this season too. But after the first 14 games in which they went 12-2 and held opponents to below 50 points in most of the games, Texas allowed 65.3 points per game in the 18 games since. That’s still a solid defense and one of the reasons why we can see this game going under, especially since Virginia Tech is not in the same conference as Texas and they aren’t familiar with their No Middle defense.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns are a top-40 defense in the paint and a top-80 defense on 3-pointers. Their weakness could be the fact that they tend to foul a bit much, but Virginia Tech isn’t that great at drawing fouls. What they are good at is shooting threes and they are one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

Their efficient offense could be a problem for betting on under, but Texas has very good defense and they are not that great on offense. But the main reason why we expect this game to go under is pace. Both teams average around 63 possessions per game, putting them both below 340 other teams when it comes to pace. When two slow teams meet, expecting a lot of points is almost crazy, so under 123.5 total points sounds like a reasonable bet, despite the fact that we would prefer the total to be a few points higher.