NFL Super Bowl 57 Winner Pick and Odds
Here is where every team stands in the odds to win Super Bowl 57 going into Week 12 of the 2022 season. NFL futures and Super Bowl odds are from FanDuel.
While the Bills and Chiefs both won in Week 11, the Chiefs made major strides in wrapping up the AFC West for the seventh year in a row by beating the Chargers for the second time this year in thrilling fashion. Buffalo still trailing Miami in the AFC East must be the logical explanation for why the Chiefs have cut into Buffalo’s lead (from +120 down to +70) even though the Bills had an easier time of winning their game last week.
The Dolphins and Buccaneers remain at +1700 after a bye for both, but they are now joined at those odds by the Vikings, who were dominated 40-3 at home by the Cowboys (+1000), who move up to No. 5 in the NFL after they were at +1500 a week ago.
The Ravens (+1200), Bengals (+2500), and Titans (+2700) all made modest gains with wins as the field of contenders takes shape heading into Thanksgiving. The biggest movers of the week were the Lions from +39000 to +15000 after a third-straight win, but they are a huge dark horse with a tough game coming up against Buffalo. Buy your friend a Christmas present before dropping any coin on the Lions winning a Super Bowl this year.
Team to Make the Playoffs Top Pick
Here is where every team stands in the odds to make the playoffs in the 2022-23 season as we head into Week 12. NFL futures odds from FanDuel.
- Like last week, we see some teams pulled off market as they are either too likely to make the playoffs (Chiefs, Eagles, Vikings) or they are too unlikely to make it and have uncertain quarterback situations (Rams, Texans, Bears).
- The Cowboys are all but a lock now after going from -1400 to -20000 with a huge win in Minnesota.
- The Titans’ somewhat surprising win in Green Bay combined with another loss by the Colts has catapulted Tennessee into near lock territory at -1600.
- Tampa Bay fell from -600 to -460 on a bye week, but that’s because of Atlanta’s win over Chicago. The Buccaneers are still big favorites in the NFC South, which is only getting one playoff team.
- Seattle was also on a bye but managed to go up from -220 to -340. Not a bad week and it helps that Green Bay and the Giants lost.
- The Giants could have had a very costly loss to Detroit as they fell from -310 to -144 with a tough Thanksgiving game in Dallas. The Giants are going to have to do very well in upcoming games against a surging Washington team (+140) if they want to make sure they make the tournament as the NFC East’s third-best team.
- The Chargers (-102) are in a dicey situation after blowing another fourth-quarter lead to the Chiefs, but we’ll see if they can hold off the Patriots (+106) and Jets (+134) for that last playoff spot in the AFC. They still have the quarterback edge with Justin Herbert while the Patriots struggle with Mac Jones and the Jets just benched Zach Wilson for Mike White.
Breakdown by Team
Here is the playoff or Super Bowl outlook for all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 12 of the 2022-23 season.
If the Cardinals struggled this much to start 3-5, what’s going to happen when baseball season ends, and Kyler Murray has his hands on a new Call of Duty game? This team notoriously fades after October, but things have already been rough on both sides of the ball.
The Falcons possibly losing tight end Kyle Pitts for the season (MCL) should be a big deal, but they really have not used him the way they should this year. Pitts was only third on the team in receiving yards (356) and he caught just 47.5% of his targets this year. As a rookie, Pitts averaged 60.4 yards per game and caught 61.8% of his targets from Matt Ryan. The Falcons are barely getting by at 5-6 but they have a tough game coming up against a confident Washington team.
The Ravens nearly blew another 10-point lead at home to the Bengals, but Lamar Jackson was able to set up Justin Tucker for the game-winning field goal in a big win. The defense did a fine job of limiting the big plays for Joe Burrow that plagued them in 2021. Baltimore is in solid shape for winning the division, but it still needs to start playing better defense and more consistent passing offense if the Ravens are going to compete in January with Buffalo and Kansas City.
The Bills had lost 12 games in a row when they trailed in the fourth quarter, but Josh Allen ended that streak and improved his odds of winning the MVP with a signature game-winning drive in Kansas City. He has thrown for over 300 yards and three touchdowns the last three times he’s faced Kansas City. The Bills have arguably the best offense, the MVP at quarterback, and the best defense in the league as they head into the bye week at 5-1. They are doing everything they needed to to make 2022 their season so far.
Sam Darnold is back as Carolina’s starting quarterback after Baker Mayfield managed just one field goal in a 13-3 loss to Baltimore that the defense played well enough to win. But Darnold has not started a game this season, and he was 4-7 as Carolina’s starter in 2021 with nine touchdowns to 13 interceptions. It is unlikely to expect him to deliver in this latest starting stint, but the Panthers could still end up with a high enough draft pick to get the second-best quarterback in this draft as the Texans seem on lockdown for the No. 1 pick.
Chicago can become the first team in NFL history to rush for at least 230 yards in five consecutive games. Drawing the Detroit defense should be a big help to keeping that streak alive, but we have to give props to Justin Fields for turning things around after a horrific start to this season with his new coaching staff. The Bears are actually starting to get fun to watch on offense.
The Bengals believe if they run the ball like they did against Carolina (over 200 yards and Joe Mixon had five touchdowns), then no one is beating this team. They probably are right, but it seems unlikely the running game is going to eat up after it was ranked No. 30 coming into Week 9. The Bengals need to focus on getting Ja’Marr Chase back immediately, because this remaining schedule might be the toughest in the league.
The Browns had a rough game in Detroit taking on the Bills as Nick Chubb was held to 19 yards on 14 carries. It was the first time in his starting career that Chubb was held under 2.0 yards per carry, and that game may have ruined his chances at his first rushing title. It was one of the last things the Browns had to look forward to as they are now 3-7 with a game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers up next.
Are the Cowboys the new “it” team in the NFC after demolishing Minnesota 40-3 on the road? We need to see the Cowboys follow it up on Thanksgiving where they are 1-10 ATS since 2011. The Giants are a division foe that is not as incompetent this year as usual, so we’ll see how Dallas fares now that the expectations are growing, and the team is trying to woo injured wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to come ring chasing with them. But the defense is very good and Tony Pollard makes the offense more fun to watch.
At least we know who the worst team in the AFC West is now. The Raiders have more games where they blew a 17-point lead (three) this year than the Broncos have game where they scored 17 points (two). This offense is so bad at scoring under Russell Wilson that it’s producing 17 points at a rate on par with Jimmy Clausen’s 2010 Panthers and Blaine Gabbert’s 2011 Jaguars. Keep in mind those were rookie quarterbacks on bad teams. Wilson and coach Nathaniel Hackett continue to waste an excellent defensive performance from Denver.
Just when the Lions were getting notice for their incredible No. 1 scoring offense trying to cover up for the No. 32 scoring defense, they laid an egg in New England, losing 29-0 to fall to 1-4. Jared Goff has played better than expected, but more games like the one on Sunday, more losses because of this terrible defense, and the Lions may go for a quarterback with a very high pick in 2023 after all.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers’ first significant NFL game was against Dallas in 2007. His two most clutch playoff moments were in wins against the Cowboys in 2014 and 2016. He had one of his best game-winning touchdown passes and drives in Dallas in 2017. This is a team that has got the best out of him, but now the Cowboys are seeing him at his team’s worst. Can Rodgers conjure up one more great performance at Lambeau Field to welcome back head coach Mike McCarthy with the Cowboys? We’ll see.
If the Texans only manage a tie with the Colts and some wins in the division against the likes of Jacksonville and those Colts again, then it may be hard to justify bringing head coach Lovie Smith back for 2023. This team hung in there with the Eagles better than expected, but the limitations of the roster were clear as day. It also is not that attractive a job for incoming head coaches.
If you like chaos, root for Jeff Saturday to go 2-0 and hand the Eagles their second loss in a row this year. A lot of the NFL’s coaching network was riled up about the way Saturday was hired as Indy’s interim coach without any experience coaching in the NCAA or NFL. But he won his first game against the Raiders, and he showed that leadership and knowledge of winning football can go a long way. You don’t have to be working 100 hours a week and sleeping in your office every night to be a good coach in the NFL. Saturday’s tenure could bust a lot of myths about what it takes to be qualified for these jobs. Root for him to continue doing well, but it also wasn’t rocket science to go back to Matt Ryan instead of Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. That move never made sense by Frank Reich, especially the way he announced it would be for the rest of the season. Now he’s unemployed and Ehlinger is back on the bench where he belongs.
The Jaguars are an improved team this year, but at 2-5, the wins are still not coming, and it’s usually the same story each week. The Jaguars have lost 39 games in a row when they allow more than 20 points. The Jaguars are also 1-10 when trailing by one score in the fourth quarter with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. They came up literally inches short of pulling out the Giants game on Sunday, but it just seems like this team always loses those types of games.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has two home games in his career where he threw multiple interceptions and was held under 24 points. Both are against Buffalo the last two years. The Chiefs are still the second-best team in the AFC and maybe the whole NFL, but if they meet the Bills again in the playoffs, Buffalo is likely going to be favored in that game. And it will likely be played in Buffalo, the first true road playoff game for Mahomes.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders (2-4) have disappointed, but if they could have stopped Kyler Murray on one of the many critical fourth downs or two-point conversions in Week 2, and if Davante Adams cleanly catches a pass down the sideline against the Chiefs, this team could be 4-2 and leading the AFC West right now. That is how thin the margins are in this league. But the schedule softening up and Josh Jacobs on fire at running back could lead to a strong second half for the Raiders.
Los Angeles Chargers
Kudos to the Chargers for not blowing two winnable games in the fourth quarter against the Texans and Browns to get to 3-2, but this team is not making the major strides we expected to see. The defense needs to step up against a struggling Denver offense on Monday night, and Justin Herbert needs to play more like an MVP candidate. He is currently a distant fifth in the odds (+1600) for that race.
Los Angeles Rams
If the Rams cannot find their mojo against a Tampa Bay team they have beaten three times in a row, they may be finished this year after getting swept by the 49ers. The division is looking harder to win by the week, and the Rams did not execute any blockbuster trades before Tuesday’s deadline like they did a year ago on their way to winning a Super Bowl.
It sounds crazy that Tua Tagovailoa is the first quarterback in Dolphins history to throw for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in consecutive games. But then you remember that Dan Marino did not play defenses as bad as the 2022 Lions and Bears in consecutive games in his career. Still, it’s a good sign that this offense is consistently producing and not just resting on the laurels of that 28-point fourth quarter in Baltimore. This offense is lighting it up now with the best wide receiver duo in the league.
You like that? If we want to like the Vikings as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, then they need to go on the road and beat the Bills. If the Jets can beat these Bills, then why not Minnesota? The Vikings always fold in these spots, and the loss in Philadelphia in Week 2 is the latest example of that. However, the Vikings could catch a break here if Josh Allen’s elbow injury keeps him out. But don’t discount Case Keenum, a former Vikings quarterback, starting for Allen and still leading the Bills to a win. This game is Minnesota’s chance to show us things really are different this year.
New England Patriots
The Patriots (6-4) have allowed six points in the last eight quarters as Bill Belichick has helped the Colts fire their head coach (Frank Reich) and the Jets bench their starting quarterback (Zach Wilson). Does he have a dominant game plan ready for Kirk Cousins on Thanksgiving night? Cousins is 0-2 against Belichick and only scored 10 points in both games. Mac Jones is still struggling for New England, but this defense has a chance to lead this team into the playoffs again.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints were very competitive in London against the Vikings without having Jameis Winston, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas. But Wil Lutz’s 61-yard field goal just hit the upright and crossbar, denying the team of overtime. Still, the Saints lead the NFL with 11 giveaways and are mediocre on both sides of the ball now.
New York Giants
Hard to be mad with the Giants going 6-2 before the bye, but this team’s reliance on close wins is going to catch up with them. Fortunately, the schedule continues handing out gifts with the Lions and Texans up next. They still have two games with the Commanders as well, though despite the difference in record, it is hard to say much separates the Giants from 4-4 teams right now. But Brian Daboll deserves to be right in the mix for Coach of the Year.
New York Jets
It took just eight days after running back Breece Hall’s season-ending injury for head coach Robert Saleh to make a statement that Zach Wilson is still his quarterback after an ugly loss to the Patriots. Without Hall’s big-play ability, it is hard to trust this offense to do anything. Count on this team’s 5-2 start proving to be fool’s gold, though the Hall injury was a huge bummer as he was just getting rolling.
The Eagles are the latest NFC team to start 6-0. They have done it by completely dominating the second quarter this season. The Eagles are plus-85 in the second quarter, though they are only minus-29 on the scoreboard in the other three quarters. It will be interesting to see what happens when the Eagles play a team capable of coming back. But that could be a while given this schedule.
The Steelers are all over the map after going from a 38-3 blowout in Buffalo to upsetting Tampa Bay 20-18 at home for the season’s first win by a double-digit underdog. The Steelers are a 7-point underdog again this week in Miami. You have to go back to 2000 to find the last time the Steelers were a 7-point underdog in three consecutive games. They went 2-1 SU that time. Can they do it again?
Is it finally going to happen? With a win over the Cardinals on Monday night, Kyle Shanahan will finally be above .500 for the first time in his career. The 49ers grinded out a tough win over the Chargers in prime time. Now we’ll see if they can get the job done on the road against a division rival.
Seattle heads into the bye after a disappointing loss in Germany, but you can’t argue with a 6-4 start when most people did not expect this team to win six games all season. Geno Smith has blown away expectations in what is technically only his third season as a full-time starter. It will be very interesting to see if this team finishes strong to make the playoffs as they are favored to do.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers enter the bye week at 5-5 and averaging 18.3 points per game. But the defense is No. 3 in scoring and just shut down Seattle’s running game in Germany. Given how shaky this NFC field looks with Philadelphia, Minnesota, Dallas, and San Francisco among the top competition, are you really going to count out Tom Brady and this team in the playoffs? We know they’re getting there by default given how bad the NFC South is.
It would be a big win for the Titans to come through in Green Bay as the No. 1 seed is still within reach for the second year in a row for this team. However, the lack of passing offense is likely to doom them in matchups like this just as it did against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Titans still have not scored more than 24 points in any game this season.
This team is going to regret not scoring from the 2-yard line against Tennessee and blowing a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter to Minnesota. Otherwise, we might be looking at a Washington team with 10 or 11 wins this season and a likely playoff spot. Of course, the biggest regret will be trading for Carson Wentz. He’s just not a franchise quarterback and Taylor Heinicke makes this team better than he does.
What Are NFL Futures?
NFL Futures are bets you can make that will not be determined until later in the season, usually at the conclusion of the regular season or Super Bowl. There are multiple types available, and the NFL futures odds can be quite profitable if you make a correct wager.
Super Bowl Futures
You can bet on which NFL team will win the Super Bowl, and some sportsbooks will also let you bet on which two teams will be in the matchup. Betting on each conference winner is also available.
NFL Division Futures
You can bet on which teams will win the eight divisions in the NFL this upcoming season. Some sportsbooks will also have markets where you can bet on the exact order of the division race finish, or which team will finish second, third, or fourth in each division.
NFL Win Totals
You can bet on an over/under for total wins for each team in the upcoming regular season. Some alternate lines are available as well.
You can bet on whether or not each team will qualify for the NFL playoffs in the upcoming season.
Finally, some of the most popular NFL futures are betting on individual award winners. You can bet on who will win regular season MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year. Some markets will even have an early Super Bowl MVP option.