With the big game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday, we have plenty of Super Bowl predictions to go over from the spread to the total to MVP and prop picks.
Our Super Bowl 2023 picks can be found below, including links to more detailed explanations behind the picks. Consider this a handy overview of our Super Bowl predictions for this epic matchup of No. 1 seeds.
Super Bowl predictions and spread pick
The first of our Super Bowl predictions is the big one: who wins? The Eagles are a 1.5-point favorite, which should make this one of the smallest spreads in Super Bowl history, though that does not guarantee a close finish on Sunday.
The Eagles have been dominant in the postseason with a 69-14 score, but they only played the Giants and 49ers (without a healthy quarterback for most of the game). The Chiefs have won by one score over the Jaguars and Bengals, though they are the more experienced team in big games.
But for the Chiefs, it really comes down to protecting Patrick Mahomes and that ankle from the No. 1 pass rush that produced 70 sacks in the regular season. The Chiefs got rid of the ball in record time for Mahomes against the Eagles when these teams met last year, but Tyreek Hill was his dominant receiver that day with 186 yards as no other Chief had 25 yards. Even Travis Kelce was limited to 23 yards, his lowest game in the last four seasons.
The Chiefs do not have great health or receiver depth right now, and the Eagles have been tracked as having the best coverage in the secondary to go along with that pass rush. But Mahomes has shredded enough top-ranked defenses before in his career, including the 49ers this season. The Chiefs also have gone 32 straight games without losing by more than 4 points (two games shy of the NFL record), and they are the third team in NFL history to hold a fourth-quarter lead in all 19 games of one season (playoffs included). This team knows how to compete.
But the Eagles do have the advantages that are often favorable to teams in the Super Bowl. They are better on defense, better in the trenches, better at running the ball, and they have an excellent receiving corps with a quarterback in Jalen Hurts who also is an MVP finalist this season. The only game the Eagles lost with Hurts saw them turn it over four times while allowing Washington to start 12-of-16 on third down. Even then a brutal missed call on a facemask penalty was a huge deciding factor in that loss.
It should be a competitive game and not 31-9 again as the last time the Chiefs were in the Super Bowl, but with the roster and health advantages, it is hard to go against the Eagles to win this game and add another chapter to the legacy of gaudy defenses stopping high-ranked offenses in the Super Bowl.
For a more in-depth prediction and preview of this game, including how the officiating could play a big role, see our analysis here.
Best Bet: Eagles -1.5 (-110)Bet on BetMGM
Super Bowl 2023 Total Pick
While the last four Super Bowls have gone under, these teams are two of the best in the league at scoring. The Chiefs have scored 30 points in eight games this year and seven of them were on the road, including 44 in Week 1 in Arizona where this game will be played.
The Eagles have scored over 30 points in both playoff games and that is despite Hurts not playing that well. The Chiefs rank No. 21 in points per drive allowed, which would be the third-worst mark for a Super Bowl winner since 1993.
In games played with an equal rest advantage since 2021, no teams have a higher rate of the over hitting than the Chiefs (14-9, 60.9%) and Eagles (13-10, 56.5%).
Best Bet: Over 50.5 (-115)Bet on CAESARS
Super Bowl 2023 Parlay Pick
If you want to put in a three-leg Same Game Parlay for your Super Bowl picks, we have our choices explained here with these bets for a +586 parlay:
- Eagles Prop: Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+105)
- Chiefs Prop: Isiah Pacheco Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Second Half Spread: Chiefs +1.5 (-136)
Super Bowl 2023 Prop Picks
There are so many props to include in your Super Bowl 2023 picks, but which ones are worth your time and which are fluff? We go over some of our favorites here, but here is a list of quality Super Bowl picks to make this week:
- A.J. Brown 4+ Receptions and Travis Kelce 5+ Receptions (-200 at FanDuel)
- Philadelphia Eagles to have successful fourth-down conversion: Yes (-280)
- Both Teams to Make a 33+ Yard Field Goal: Yes (+102)
- Patrick Mahomes: Over 292.5 Passing Yards (-114)
- Isiah Pacheco: Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
- Jalen Hurts: Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-118)
Super Bowl 2023 Odds Update
For a look at the Super Bowl predictions and what happened to each team’s chances at getting to the big game this season, be sure to check out our final weekly update here.
Super Bowl 2023 Odds
Here are the live odds for each team to win Super Bowl 57:
- Philadelphia Eagles (-122)
- Kansas City Chiefs (+104)
Super Bowl 2023 MVP Odds
While Jalen Hurts (+125) has a slight lead in the odds to win Super Bowl MVP over Patrick Mahomes (+135), we still think Mahomes is the most valuable pick as he is far more likely to win the award if the Chiefs win than any one Eagle is as Philadelphia has many options to choose from.
See our Super Bowl MVP analysis here.
Where can I bet on the Super Bowl?
If our Super Bowl predictions have given you ideas on what to bet on for your Super Bowl picks this week, then you’ll want to try out a top-rated sportsbook that will legally accept your bets for this Sunday’s big game.
Here is a list of some of our favorite online sportsbooks:
- Caesars Sportsbook