Steelers vs. Dolphins Week 7 matchup preview and current betting lines
It is just a coincidence these teams are meeting in Week 7, because both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins have failed to start and finish consecutive games with the same quarterback since Week 3 ended.
Miami has somehow seen its starting quarterback get knocked out of four consecutive games with an injury. Tua Tagovailoa infamously returned to that first game against Buffalo, which is where all the fuss over concussions started this season, then he was knocked out again against the Bengals four days later. Then Teddy Bridgewater and Skylar Thompson were injured in the next two games. The once 3-0 Dolphins have lost all three games since the quarterback injuries have wrecked the offense’s chance at building continuity.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are just trying to find some offensive rhythm. They started Mitch Trubisky for 3.5 games before Mike Tomlin benched him for rookie Kenny Pickett. Then in his second start on Sunday, Pickett suffered a concussion after banging his head off the ground on a sack. You might think Pickett would miss Sunday’s game due to the new concussion protocol in the wake of how Tua’s injury was mishandled, but it is looking like Pickett and Tua will be the starters on Sunday night.
Hopefully we can see both quarterbacks finish the game with good health. The NFL Week 7 odds have the Dolphins as a 7-point home favorite with a total of 44.5 points in this matchup. Can the Dolphins end their losing streak?
Players to watch in the Steelers vs. Dolphins game
Pittsburgh Steelers
George Pickens: If Kenny Pickett is a go, then so is George Pickens, the stellar rookie who clearly has a better connection with Pickett than he does with Trubisky. He was quiet on Sunday with Chase Claypool stealing the show, but Pickens has incredible talent and deserves more targets in this offense. The last time he was in prime time (Cleveland) he made the catch of the year.
Miami Dolphins
Tyreek Hill: He has played the Steelers six times and failed to crack 60 yards all but once in those games, so Mike Tomlin has usually had a good plan to keep his speed from killing them. This could be a tricky matchup though with the Pittsburgh secondary heavily injured, and the Dolphins rely so much on Hill (and Jaylen Waddle).
Our Best NFL Bets for the Steelers vs. Dolphins game
We have two NFL Week 7 predictions for this final game of the day on Sunday.
Steelers vs. Dolphins Point Spread Pick: Dolphins -6.5 and Under 50.5 Points (+160)
The Steelers vs. Dolphins spread opened with the Dolphins as a 3.5-point home favorite and it has already doubled with the good quarterback news, assuming it holds up. For that reason, we start with a spread and total points pick.
We assume this game is going to be Tua Tagovailoa and Kenny Pickett at quarterback. Things could always change with head injuries, though Tua is more of a sure thing. He also still leads all quarterbacks with an 80.0 QBR this season, though his brilliant game against Baltimore, particularly the fourth quarter where he led four touchdown drives, still stands out far above the rest of his season.
But you should always fade a quarterback coming off a concussion the previous week, and maybe even double down when it’s a rookie on a bad offense like Pickett. He hasn’t played terribly, but he is at the mercy of offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Another troubling sign is that Pickett has done the best on opening drives in his two starts, suggesting that a scripted drive is what he does best and advancing as the game goes on isn’t there yet.
Every Pittsburgh game has finished under 47 points this season, so we like the total offered here at a nice price. Even Miami has failed to score 28 points in any game despite doing it in the fourth quarter against Baltimore, so that looks like an outlier. This game should be more of the 24-17 variety, if it even gets that high scoring. But 27-20 would work too.
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bet on NFL with betmgmFirst Quarter Total: Over 9.5 Points (-104)
As mentioned above, the Steelers have been at their best moving the ball with Pickett starting on the opening drive. They got a field goal in Buffalo and nothing the rest of the game. They got their first opening-drive touchdown of 2022 against Tampa Bay, Pickett’s first NFL touchdown pass, and then he did not look impressive the rest of the way until he was concussed in the third quarter.
Let’s bank on the Steelers to score early again, either a field goal or touchdown in this game. That would just require the Dolphins to take care of an early score, and you should feel confident they can do that. In Tagovailoa’s last start against the Bengals in prime time, that game started with the Bengals scoring a touchdown and Miami scoring a field goal, hitting over 9.5 points in nine minutes of action.
That’s the kind of start we expect to see in this one too with both quarterbacks coming back from injury and looking to prove something to a national audience. Prove they can stay healthy and finish a game would be great. But the Steelers (29) and Dolphins (26) also rank among the 10 teams to allow the most points in first quarters this year, so we like this over for your NFL bet of the week.
bet on nfl with fanduel >Frequently asked questions about the Steelers vs. Dolphins game in week 7
The game is being played at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida
The standard has changed for Pittsburgh. They were 14-point underdogs in Buffalo, 10-point underdogs against Tampa Bay, and now 7-point underdogs against Miami. The last time Pittsburgh was at least a 7-point underdog in three consecutive games was early in the 2000 season under Bill Cowher. The Steelers went 2-1 SU in those games before finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs.
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