Tampa Bay (-2.5) to cover vs New Orleans Alternate spread
Chris Godwin over 67.5 rec yards Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Buccaneers Week 13 matchup preview and current betting lines
The New Orleans Saints will travel to Florida to take on its divisional foe, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday. The bout is set for 8:15 p.m. ET and ESPN will broadcast the contest.
At the beginning of the season, few could have predicted Tampa Bay sitting with a 5-6 record through 11 games. Even less would have thought it would be enough to see them sitting in first place in the NFC South standings.
NFC South Standings
Tampa Bay 5-6
New Orleans 4-8
The Falcons sit just half a game off the lead behind the Bucs. The division could come down to Jan. 8, when the two meet for the second time at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia.
It appeared Tom Brady and company were back on track after two-consecutive victories over the Rams and Seahawks. The following week, Tampa Bay laid an egg and fell 23-17 to the Browns.
The Buccaneers held a 17-10 lead for the majority of the second half before Jacoby Brissett found David Njoku for a 12-yard touchdown with 32 seconds remaining. The contest looked destined for a tie but Nick Chubb was able to reach the end zone with 19 seconds left to seal the win.
New Orleans hasn’t been eliminated yet from playoff contention and a win against Tampa would give them an outside chance at winning the division. The team enters the contest after a disappointing 13-0 defeat to San Francisco last weekend.
The current moneyline odds for this matchup on BetMGM Sportsbook are New Orleans (+155) vs. Tampa Bay (-190). Oddsmakers favor the Saints as 3.5-point favorites at -110 odds. Among the public, 55% of spread bets have been placed on the Saints to cover and 88% of the money is on the Bucs to win straight up.
Players to watch in the New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay contest
Chris Olave: The 11th overall pick in this year’s draft has proven his worth. Olave leads the Saints in receiving with 56 receptions for 822 yards (11th in the NFL) and three touchdowns. The 22-year-old is averaging 74.7 yards per game in 2022.
Rachaad White: There seems to be a shifting of the guard in the Bucs’ backfield. The rookie running back has recorded 36 carries over the last two weeks compared to Leonard Fournette’s 23. White recorded 169 in the two games against Seattle and Cleveland. The third-rounder can also catch, he had nine receptions for 45 yards versus the Browns.
Our NFL bet of the week for the Saints vs. Buccaneers
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay Alternate Spread: Tampa -2.5 @ -145 (BetMGM)
Todd Bowles and his Buccaneers have one big problem: the offense. Every week many NFL analysts and fans wonder if offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich can crack the code.
The team’s defense is a top-10 unit and has been doing its job. Tampa boasts the sixth-ranked scoring defense by allowing just 18.5 points per game and features the ninth-ranked total defense (315.2 yards per game).
Offensively, the unit is 27th in scoring (18.2 PPG) and 18th in yards per contest (339.1 YPG). The biggest issue is the team’s run game, which ranks dead last in the league (73 YPG).
The rushing issues allow defenses to drop players back into coverage which puts more pressure on Brady to make big plays. This has affected the red zone scoring percentage (25th) for the Bucs as well. They score touchdowns on 50% of trips inside the 20.
Tampa Bay has only scored more than 22 points once this season. This is embarrassing for an offense that features Brady, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
New Orleans has been extremely hit or miss and can’t seem to find any sort of consistency. For every win, this season, Dennis Allen’s men have followed it up with at least two losses. It’ll be interesting to see if they can end that negative trend Sunday.
New Orleans is 4-8 against the spread this season and 0-5 ATS in its last five games on the road. Tampa Bay is 3-7-1 ATS and defeated its rival in week two, 20-10.
As bad as Brady’s offense has been, Andy Dalton’s has performed even worse in the last four weeks (10.75 PPG). Our pick at ESTNN is to bet the Bucs to cover an alternate 2.5-point spread on BetMGM. The sportsbook is offering -110 odds for the wager.
Saints vs. Buccaneers odds: Chris Godwin over 67.5 receiving yards @ -110 (Bet365)
The shifty slot receiver will probably crack 1,000 yards this year. If he hadn’t missed two games due to injury, he’d almost surely meet the threshold.
Godwin has always been one of Brady’s most trustworthy targets. Godwin has gone over 67.5 yards in three of his last four outings. The 26-year-old is earning a massive volume with double-digit targets in five of the previous six games.
He’ll have plenty of opportunities to beat the prop against the Saints this weekend. New Orleans is giving up 42% of its yards to opposing slot receivers.
We believe it’s wise to take the over on Bet365 sportsbook (-110). If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 13, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay in week 13
The “Goat” won six Super Bowls with Bill Belichick in New England and one with Bruce Arians in Tampa Bay.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL Odds for this week page for more information.
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