Rams (+20.5) to cover vs. the Chiefs Alternate Spread
Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rush yards Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
Los Angeles Rams vs. Kansas City Chiefs Week 12 matchup preview and current betting lines
The Los Angeles Rams will head to Arrowhead Stadium to lock horns with the Kansas City Chiefs. The bout is set for 4:25 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the matchup.
The defending Super Bowl champions are enduring a massive hangover this season. A win against Kansas City is unlikely to cure their headache and the season is all but lost at 3-7.
Andy Reid (8-2) and his men are again in first place in the AFC standings. If the playoffs started today, they’d hold a first-round bye and host a divisional playoff game.
The Rams are coming off a 27-20 loss to the Saints and have been defeated in six of their previous seven games. Sean McVay’s squad has now lost four-straight games.
Los Angeles cut the lead to 24-17 at the start of the fourth quarter via a Matt Gay 33-yard field goal. The offense could only muster up another field goal and could not come back.
Kansas City enters the game on a positive note after a 30-27 win over the Chargers. Contrary to the Rams, the dramatic win awarded the Chiefs their fourth-consecutive victory.
Patrick Mahomes stunned the crowd at SoFi Stadium when he led a 6-play, 75-yard drive resulting in a Travis Kelce touchdown locking in the win for Kansas City. Justin Herbert had just given the Chargers the lead with 1:46 remaining, but there was too much time left for the lethal Mahomes to move his offense down the field.
Oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook are heavily favoring the Chiefs by 15.5 points. On the moneyline, Kansas City is -1500 and Los Angeles is +870. Gamblers have put 58% of their bets on the Rams to cover and 95% of the money on the Chiefs to win straight up.
Players to watch in the Rams vs. Chiefs contest
Allen Robinson II: The 29-year-old wideout was brought in during the offseason to be the second target in Los Angeles’ offense behind Cooper Kupp. Kupp is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain which leaves Robinson as the top target. Robinson has underperformed so far but did manage to record four receptions for 47 yards and a touchdown last week against New Orleans.
Travis Kelce: The 6-foot-5 playmaker lights up the stats sheet and the field nearly every week. Against the Chargers, Kelce had six catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns including the game-winner. On the season, the former Cincinnati Bearcat has racked up 69 receptions (5th) for 855 yards (7th) and 11 touchdowns (1st).
Our NFL bet of the week for the Rams vs. Chiefs
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
Los Angeles vs. Kansas City Alternate Spread: Rams +20.5 @ -196 (FanDuel)
The Chiefs are slight underdogs to win the Super Bowl (+450) behind the Bills (+420). Mahomes is now the odds-on favorite to win the MVP (-165) ahead of Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts (both +600).
It’ll be extremely difficult for the Rams to keep the game close, especially with starting quarterback Matthew Stafford ruled out. Backup quarterback John Wolford will start in his place.
The Chiefs rank both first in the league in scoring offense (30 PPG) and total offense (429.3 YPG). On defense, they’ve allowed opponents to score 23.3 points per outing (19th) and are giving up 349.2 yards per game (18th).
Mahomes ranks first in the NFL for both yards (3,265) and touchdown passes (28). The Texas Tech product also boasts the second-ranked quarterback rating: 78.4 (behind Tagovailoa’s 82.7).
Los Angeles ranks in the bottom four in total offense (30th: 288 YPG) and is scoring 16.8 points per game (29th). The defense has played decent. The unit is giving up 312 yards per game (10th) and is surrendering 22.7 points to opponents (17th).
When facing the spread, Kansas City is 4-6 for the year and is 2-5 ATS when it is favored to win. Los Angeles is 2-7-1 ATS in 2022-2023.
The Rams are losing by an average of 12.1 points per week. In the last three games, they’ve been beaten by seven, three and 10. The Chiefs are winning by an average of 9.3 points per contest. Half of their wins have come by three points or less.
Even with a backup, it’s hard for an NFL team to lose by 21 points. At the end of the day, every player on the field is a professional.
Our pick at ESTNN is to take Los Angeles to cover an alternate 20.5-point spread. FanDuel is offering the bet at -196 odds.
Rams vs. Chiefs odds: Isiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards @ -120 (BetMGM)
Many analysts predicted Pacheco would take over the Kansas City backfield at some point in the season. Reid and the Chiefs selected the 23-year-old in the seventh round of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Pacheco caught the attention of scouts at the NFL Combine when he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.37 seconds. His speed and ability to catch the ball give him a skill set similar to Kareem Hunt, one of Reid’s former running backs.
The Rutgers product was given the reins two weeks ago and has performed well since. The game log below shows his stats for the last two games.
Pacheco Game Log
Week 10 at New York (Giants): 16 attempts for 82 yards
Week 11 at Los Angeles (Chargers): 15 attempts for 107 yards
The Rutgers product is the starter and will likely keep the job unless he has fumbling issues. The game script will likely favor Pacheco and he’ll once again see plenty of opportunities.
We believe it’s wise to bet the over 64.5 rushing yards prop on BetMGM. The sportsbook is offering -120 odds for the selection.
If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 12, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding Los Angeles vs. Kansas City in week 12
Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith for the 2017 season. Smith was the starter from 2013-2017.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL Odds for this week page for more information.
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