Las Vegas (+3) to cover vs. Denver Alternate Spread
Davante Adams over 76.5 rec yards Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos Week 11 matchup preview and current betting lines
The Raiders will travel to Empower Field at Mile High to take on their division rivals, the Broncos on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the matchup.
As cliché as the phrase sounds, this is practically a must-win game for these two struggling teams. Both pairs of veteran starting quarterbacks, Derek Carr and Russell Wilson have been unable to lead their teams to a positive record despite high expectations entering the season.
The Broncos gave up a boatload of high picks and players to acquire the Super Bowl-winning Wilson, while the Raiders traded away a first and a second-rounder for Carr’s college teammate Davante Adams.
The Pro Bowl wide receiver is on pace for another fantastic year but is clearly not happy with his team’s losing habits. The silver and black fell victim this time to the Indianapolis Colts, 25-20. The loss was embarrassing because Josh McDaniels lost to Jeff Saturday in his first-ever game as a coach at any level in the NFL. Saturday didn’t even have experience at the college level.
Carr was extremely emotional after the loss during the postgame press conference. He said it was difficult to watch what his teammates put their bodies through week in and out just to lose.
"I'm sorry for being emotional. I'm just pissed off."
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 14, 2022
Vegas (2-7) put up a paltry 309 yards in the loss, 116 less than Indy. Jonathan Taylor gashed them 147 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
The Broncos (3-6) are coming off a 17-10 loss to the Titans in Nashville. After starting the year 2-1, McDaniels’ men have now lost five of the last six contests.
Oddsmakers at Bet365 Sportsbook are favoring the Broncos by 2.5 points. On the moneyline, Las Vegas is +125 and Denver is -145. Bettors have put 55% of their money on the Raiders to cover and 80% of it on them to win straight up.
Players to watch in the Raiders vs. Broncos contest
Josh Jacobs: Vegas’ top tailback is having a Pro Bowl season. The former Alabama star has 159 attempts for 821 yards (4th) and seven scores (T-4th) this year. Jacobs is also averaging a whopping 5.2 yards per carry. The 24-year-old will attempt to get things going on the ground and help open up the passing game against Denver’s stingy defense.
Courtland Sutton: The WR1 in Denver has posted slightly above-average numbers but hasn’t exploded as many thought he would. Sutton has only broken the plane on one occasion and has 41 catches for 533 yards. Sutton has failed to eclipse 23 yards receiving in three of the previous four outings.
Our NFL bet of the week for the Raiders vs. Broncos
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
Las Vegas vs. Denver Alternate Spread: Las Vegas +3 @ -125 (Bet365)
Despite the Raiders having a worse record than the Broncos by a game and both teams massively underperforming this year, McDaniels’ doesn’t have a bad football team. They aren’t the best statistically in any category, they’ve just lost too many tight matchups down the stretch and can’t figure out a way to close out games.
Six of Vegas’ seven losses have come by one score or less. Two of them came by two points or fewer. Aside from an outlier (24-0) defeat against the Saints, the silver and black have lost by an average of 4.3 points per game.
The Raiders’ offense is 14th in the league in points per game (22.6) and 17th in yards per game (335.1). They are both 28th in total defense (376.1 YPG) and points surrendered (25.1 per contest).
Carr is playing above the league average and has a quarterback rating of 58.5 (10th). He’s thrown for 2,128 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.
The Broncos on the other hand have a great defense but a putrid offense. They are playing horrible football with Russell Wilson as their quarterback.
Last season through nine games, Denver had a 5-4 record with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. After nine starts from Wilson, the organization is much worse at 3-6. Bridgewater was making $4.25 million last year compared to Wilson who is making $17 million this season. The former Seahawk is expected to make $296 million over the next seven years after signing a five-year extension during the offseason.
Below are Wilson’s numbers compared to the rest of the league.
Russell Wilson Stats
Passing yards: 1,980 (17th)
Touchdown passes: 7 (27th)
Interceptions: 5 (T-13th)
Quarterback rating: 33.1 (27th)
Denver’s offense has only scored more than 17 points twice this season. The unit is ranked dead last in the NFL in points per game (14.6). In terms of total offense, Nathaniel Hackett’s team sits at 22nd (327.1 yards per contest).
Broncos fans have to be fuming because the defense ranks first in the NFL in points allowed (16.6) and second in yards surrendered per outing (290.4).
Both teams are 3-6 against the spread this year. Las Vegas is 9-1 ATS in its last ten matchups against Denver. The Broncos are 0-5 ATS when playing as the favorite.
At ESTNN, we believe the Raiders will cover an alternate 3-point spread against the Broncos. Carr has outperformed Wilson and the Broncos don’t have a running game. Bet365 is offering -125 odds for the bet.
Raiders vs. Broncos odds: Davante Adams over 76.5 receiving yards @ -117 (Caesars)
The Pro Bowl wide receiver certainly misses Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay defense. Rodgers equally misses him as the Packers have struggled at 4-7.
Adams has shined in Vegas, posting 57 receptions for 784 yards and eight touchdowns. Adams’ average of 87.1 receiving yards per game is 10.6 yards per game higher than his prop of 76.5.
The former Fresno State Bulldog has hit the receiving yards over in 11 of his last 16 games. This year, he’s had over 76.5 yards in six of nine games (66.6%).
Adams has had at least 95 receiving yards in five of the previous six contests. He’ll be lining up against a top corner in Patrick Surtain II. If it were many other wideouts, we wouldn’t recommend taking this prop. Although, Adams is arguably the best receiver and route runner in the entire league. He’s had 31 targets and 272 yards over the past two weeks so there’s a good chance he’ll eclipse 76.5 yards on Sunday.
The prop is available at Caesars Sportsbook at -117 odds. If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 11, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding Las Vegas vs. Denver in Week 11
John Elway won two Super Bowls with Denver in 1998 and 1999. The other quarterback to win the big game was Peyton Manning in 2016.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL Odds for this week page for more information.
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