Patriots vs. Dolphins Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 1 Predictions

Patriots vs. Dolphins NFL week 1 odds, preview and current betting lines

It might only be game week 1 but this AFC East match up between the Patriots and the Dolphins could prove enormous when the back end of the season rolls around. You won’t find many realistic fans that disagree with the sentiment of our picks backing the Bills to steamroll the division whilst we fancy the Jets to be comfortably bottom of the standings.

If the season plays out in that manner then these two sides will be gunning for a wild card spot; that puts this game into serious focus and means nobody can afford a slow start – although there are risks that neither team is bang at it from day one.

The Patriots have had what many deem to be a mediocre trade window with more emphasis on those who have left the building whilst their pre-season output has been less than convincing. As for the Dolphins, they arrive here after a crazy period that has seen them tear up their entire coaching hierarchy. Mike McDaniel, who replaced Brian Flores, however, will be keen to make a winning start.

Players to watch in the Patriots vs. Dolphins game

New England Patriots

Jon Jones: There are a couple of ways the Patriots will be able to stamp their authority on this match up and one of them is by locking down Tyreek Hill. He’s caused the Pats some issues historically but in Jones they’ve got someone with the athleticism to keep him under wraps. Maybe.

Miami Dolphins

Tua Tagovailoa: This is a big season for Tua Tagovailoa and it’s starting against one of his favorite teams; he’s beaten the Patriots every time he’s started against them and based on comments coming out of New England, he’s in their heads already.

Our NFL bet of the week for the Patriots vs. Dolphins match

Right, with the preview over let’s move on to our predictions, after all, that’s the main reason you’re here.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Spread betting: Dolphins -3.5 @ -110

Our first prediction for this game sees us back the Miami Dolphins to win with a -3.5 point spread. The Dolphins have a good record against the Patriots in recent meetings having won each of the last three meetings; one of those games was a close encounter that ended 17-16 but that game was sandwiched in between two rather crushing Patriots defeats. In 2020 the Dolphins cruised to a 22-12 win with last season seeing a 33-24 victory. That’s a combined scoreline of 72-52.

It’s hard to believe that the offseason changes have brought things that much closer together and the pre-season displays, particularly the most recent outings, would suggest that this match could be a relatively comfortable win for the Dolphins. Whilst they were closing out their pre-season with a 48-10 win over the Eagles, the Patriots were getting schooled by the Raiders to the tune of 23-6. Throw in the fact that Tua Tagovailoa has been a thorn in the Patriots side during his career and a -3.5 spread feels like a good value bet.

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds: Total points under 46.5 @ -115

Our second tip for this Patriot vs. Dolphins face off is that the game will come in under the 46.5 points cut off. Let’s explain why we believe that will be the case. The Dolphins are the team that push this wager to furthest with three of their last five games going over the 46.5 threshold, however, it is notable that their game average for total points over that period comes in at just 46.0. The Patriots meanwhile have seen three of their last five matches fall short of the 46.5 cut off with their game average coming in at 44.8.

There is also the head to head record to factor into this tip. Of the last five meetings between these sides only two have gone over the 46.5 cut off whilst the average points per match is a fair bit south of the required 46.5 coming in at just 41.4.