Green Bay (+7) to cover vs Miami Alternate Spread
Christian Watson anytime TD scorer Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins Week 16 matchup preview and current betting lines
The Packers will depart from the frozen tundra in Wisconsin and head to Miami for a must-win matchup against the Dolphins on Sunday. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET and the matchup can be viewed on FOX.
Green Bay (6-8) must win their remaining three games to finish 9-8 and have a shot at the No. 7 seed in the NFC. Matt LaFleur’s team trails Washington, (7-6-1) Seattle (7-7) and Detroit (7-7).
If the playoffs started today, the Dolphins (8-6) would sit in the No. 7 seed. New England, (7-7) Jacksonville (7-8) and New York (7-8) are right on the team’s heels.
The Packers have strung together two-straight wins over Chicago and Los Angeles to keep their postseason dreams mathematically alive. Mike McDaniel’s South Florida squad won five-straight games but has now lost three in a row at the hands of San Francisco, Los Angeles and Buffalo.
The current moneyline odds for this matchup on BetMGM Sportsbook are Green Bay (+165) vs. Miami (-200). Oddsmakers favor the Dolphins as 4-point favorites at -110 odds.
The game total is set at 50 points. Among the public, 74% of the money has been placed on the Packers to cover and bets are split 50-50 on which team will win the contest straight up.
Players to watch in the Packers vs. Dolphins contest
AJ Dillon: The power back has become LaFleur’s primary goalline ball carrier and has scored a touchdown in three-straight games. Last week against the Rams, Dillon found the end zone twice.
Tyreek Hill: The speedy wideout has enjoyed success during his first year with his hometown team. Hill has recorded 109 receptions for 1,529 yards, (2nd) caught seven touchdowns and is averaging 14 yards per catch.
Our NFL bet of the week for the Packers vs. Dolphins
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
Green Bay vs. Miami Alternate Spread: Packers +7 @ -185 (BetMGM)
The Packers had a lack of depth at the wide receiver position to start the year but rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs have emerged as formidable weapons for Aaron Rodgers. The team’s defense has also rounded into form these last two weeks.
The back-to-back MVP will face off against a rising talent at the quarterback position, Tua Tagovailoa, who is a candidate to win the award this year. Tagovailoa has dropped to +12500 odds behind Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow.
Tua Tagovailoa Stats
Passing yards: 3,238 (12th)
Touchdown passes: 24 (T-5th)
Interceptions: 5 (T-3rd)
Quarterback rating: 71.8 (2nd)
McDaniels’ offense is a top-10 unit and ranks fifth in total yards (370.4 per game) and ninth in points per outing (24.6). The other side of the ball has been a struggle as the defense ranks tied for 26th in points allowed (24.6) and is 23rd in total defense (357.6 yards per game).
The Packers have had a mediocre offense this season and are averaging 20.5 points per week. Although, in the last five games, Rodgers and company have stepped it up by scoring 26.6 points per contest.
During its three-game losing streak, Miami’s defense is allowing 29.3 points per game. This is the perfect recipe for Green Bay to keep things close.
The Packers are 5-1 against the spread in their last five trips to Miami. The Dolphins have failed to cover against the last four NFC opponents they’ve faced.
At ESTNN, we believe it’s safe to take Green Bay to cover an alternate 7-point spread. BetMGM is offering -185 odds for the bet.
Packers vs. Dolphins odds: Christian Watson anytime TD scorer @ +117 (BetRivers)
After scoring a touchdown during four games in a row, the second-rounder finally drew a blank against the Rams. Although Rodgers called an audible and targeted the young receiver in the red zone, he didn’t notice the quarterback change the play.
Watson has still scored nine total touchdowns in four of his previous five games and will get plenty of opportunities to do so against Miami’s weak secondary. LaFleur also enjoys using Watson as a tailback on jet sweeps.
The North Dakota State product has scored two or more touchdowns in three of five contests. Our pick is to take him as an anytime touchdown scorer this Sunday at +117 odds on BetRivers Sportsbook.
If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 16, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding Green Bay vs. Miami in Week 16
The Packers last tasted victory in the big game in 2011. Green Bay defeated Pittsburgh 31-25 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL odds for this week page for more information.
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