Green Bay (+10.5) to cover vs. Buffalo Spread
Stefon Diggs over 81.5 rec yards Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
Green Bay Packers vs. Buffalo Bills Week 8 matchup preview and current betting lines
The Green Bay Packers will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills in a matchup between a 4-time NFL MVP and a frontrunner for this year’s award: Josh Allen. The Sunday Night Football contest will kick off at 8:20 p.m. EST and can be seen on NBC.
Green Bay (3-4) started the season on many sportsbooks with 13-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. After a week 1 dismantling by the Vikings, (23-7) it seemed as if the oddsmakers had made a mistake. The Packers then went on a three-game winning streak which included a 14-12 win over Tom Brady and Tampa Bay.
The ship appeared to be back on course but Green Bay’s season has fallen off the rails. The team is in the midst of a three-game losing streak with defeats to the Giants, Jets and Commanders.
Buffalo (5-1) is the current favorite to win the Super Bowl at +550. Allen’s odds to win MVP are +125. Sean McDermott has his team rolling with a three wins in a row.
The Bills enter the game on a high note after getting revenge on the Chiefs 24-20 in week 6, in the previous meeting, Kansas City won in overtime during the playoffs. Allen and his top receiver, Stefon Diggs posted impressive stat lines.
Allen went 27-of-40 for 329 yards and three touchdowns. The 26-year-old finished with a quarterback rating of 62.2. Diggs torched the Kansas City secondary with ten receptions for 148 yards and a touchdown.
The current moneyline odds for this matchup on BetMGM Sportsbook are Green Bay (+375) vs. Buffalo (-500). Oddsmakers favor the Bills as 10.5-point favorites at -110 odds. Among the public, 57% of spread bets have been placed on the Packers to cover, while 82% of the money is on the Bills to win straight up.
Players to watch in the Packers vs. Bills contest
Aaron Jones: The Pro Bowl running back has surprisingly not seen double-digit carries in each of his last two games (8 and 9). Jones leads the team in rushing yards (432) and is averaging an impressive 5.5 yards per tote. The UTEP product has only broken the plane once via the ground but has been impressive through the air with 176 receiving yards and three touchdowns. It’ll be up to his head coach to give him more touches.
Gabriel Davis: The 23-year-old has firmly locked himself in as the WR2 in Buffalo’s offense. A case can be made that Davis would be the top target in a handful of offensive units around the league. The former UCF Knight leads the NFL in yards per catch with 27.4. Davis has posted 383 receiving yards and four touchdowns this season.
Our NFL bet of the week for the Packers vs. Bills
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
Green Bay vs. Buffalo Spread: Green Bay +10.5 @ -110
Aaron Rodgers has never been a double-digit underdog in his entire career as a starter. Many pundits and analysts couldn’t predict him being this much of an underdog after back-to-back MVP campaigns. Rodgers and the Packers are 40-10 in the last three regular seasons under head coach Matt LaFleur.
In Rodgers’ last 13 primetime games, he’s played exceptionally. The stats below indicate how dominant he’s been.
36 touchdown passes
122.8 passer rating
It’ll certainly be a tough feat to win his 14th primetime game in a row, especially against the Bills and without former receiver Davante Adams. That doesn’t mean he won’t cover the spread though.
The 38-year-old has missed the Pro Bowler Adams. The Fresno State product was considered the best receiver in the league by many with Green Bay and created openings for other receivers as well as the run game due to often being double-teamed.
At 2-4 with the Las Vegas Raiders, it appears Adams misses Rodgers too. The 29-year-old stated earlier this week that Rodgers “is the greatest to ever do it at the quarterback position.”
The Packers are 21st in total offense (331.6 yards per game) and 23rd in points per game (18.3). On defense, the unit finished first in 2021. This year, it’s been a different story. The unit is 14th in points surrendered per contest (20.9) and is 7th in total defense (308.4).
Rodgers’ stats look decent on paper with 1,597 yards, 11 touchdowns (T-6th) and three interceptions (T-6th). His quarterback rating has been poor though at 26th in the league (40.6).
The Packers have been successful when leaning on the run game with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. LaFleur has drifted away from the run-first game plan despite the organization’s lack of talent in the receiving corps.
Green Bay will play the role of David as they face Goliath on Sunday night. The Bills rank first in the entire league in both total offense (440.8 YPG) and total defense (281.5 YPG). Buffalo also ranks first defensively in points allowed per contest (13.5) and second in scoring defense (29.3 PPG).
Allen’s MVP-caliber season has been impressive. The Wyoming product has thrown for 1,980 yards, 17 touchdowns, (2nd) four interceptions and has the league’s second-best QBR (76.5). The 6-foot-5, dual-threat signal-caller has also rushed for 257 yards (leads the team) and two touchdowns.
LaFleur has been a master game planner in his previous three seasons as the Packers’ head coach and should devise a solid plan to at least keep the score respectable. Our pick is to take Green Bay to cover the 10.5-point spread on BetMGM at -110 odds.
Packers vs. Bills odds: Stefon Diggs over 81.5 receiving yards @ -115
Stefon Diggs is having a career year in 2022. The Pro Bowler is second in the NFL in both receiving yards (656) and touchdowns (6).
Diggs has 65 total targets (5th in the NFL) despite the team already having a bye week. That’s an average of 10.8 targets per game.
The former fifth-rounder has easily eclipsed 81.5 yards in four of six games this season. Diggs has posted at least 102 yards in those four contests. The Maryland product is averaging 109.3 yards per outing.
Diggs will be facing a Green Bay defense that allowed Washington’s WR1, Terry McLaurin, to record 73 yards on five receptions. Allen is light years better than Heinicke and Diggs is also a better receiver than McLaurin.
We believe at ESTNN that Diggs will beat the 81.5 receiving yard mark. The prop bet is available on Caesars Sportsbook at -115 odds.
If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 8, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding Green Bay vs. Buffalo in week 8
No, the Bills have never won a Super Bowl. Buffalo made it to four-straight Super Bowls in the 1990s but lost all four.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL Odds for this week page for more information.
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