NFL Regular season MVP pick and odds
Here is our player-by-player breakdown of the potential NFL regular season MVP candidates.
4. Jalen Hurts (+1500)
For months, NFL MVP odds had Jalen Hurts as the leading candidate to win the award, and there was a point where he seemed like a shot to win. The Philadelphia Eagles continue to boast an impressive 12-1 record after fourteen weeks, and it doesn’t seem like those wins have been a fluke.
The Eagles have steam-rolled past every rival they’ve faced this season, and Hurts has a lot to do with that. However, his latest injury could keep him out for the remainder of the regular season, and that could severely hurt his chances.
3. Josh Allen (+1500)
Josh Allen once again sits near the top of the NFL MVP odds. He failed to deliver last year thanks to Aaron Rodgers’ impressive performances, but it’s not like he was a disappointment by any means. Now, he’ll look not only to win his first MVP but also to put an end to the Buffalo Bills’ shortcomings.
The Bills are the strongest team in the AFC, and it’s not even close, at least on paper. However, Allen has battled with injuries and that also took a toll on their chances to compete over the past three or four weeks.
2. Joe Burrow (+900)
Joe Burrow doesn’t want to join the long list of young QBs who never made it back to the Super Bowl. Instead, he’d look to enter the NFL MVP list, although that also seems to be cursed, as no MVP has gone on to win the Vince Lombardi trophy. That’s a bit of a surprise.
Jinxes, curses, and everything aside, Burrow has shown that he can become a generational player. The Cincinnati Bengals’ new-look offensive line has finally gotten into a rhythm, and that connection with Ja’Marr Chase could be an all-time great.
1. Patrick Mahomes (-1250)
Patrick Mahomes now has the highest odds to win NFL MVP this season, and it’s not even close. You wanted to count him out, but you should know by now that there’s no such thing as counting Patrick Mahomes out. If anything, he’ll end your season.
The Kansas City Chiefs’ new-look offense has been as explosive as ever. Mahomes has spread the wealth, and you never know who’s going to break out for them. He’s slinging the football downfield and torching defenses left and right.
How does NFL MVP voting work?
Back in the day, long before today’s NFL MVP voting system, the NFL presented the Joe F. Carr Trophy (1938-46). There were multiple MVP trophies ever since, but it wasn’t until 1956 that the Associated Press started handing out the trophy we know nowadays. Therefore, although we still have several awards for the MVP, the AP MVP is the only official award.
Right before the start of the playoffs, a panel of 50 expert sportswriters votes for their Most Valuable Player of the season. Needless to say, the 50 experts are chosen according to their trajectory and NFL-related work, and the panel often includes former players as well, such as Troy Aikman.
Multiple legends have won the award, with Aaron Rodgers (4-time MVP) taking it in back-to-back years. Peyton Manning headlines the list with five MVP trophies, while Tom Brady, Johnny Unitas, Jim Brown, and Brett Favre are right behind him with three each. It’s also worth noting that Brady and Lamar Jackson were the only unanimous winners of this award in 2010 and 2019, respectively.
Also, as you may have noticed by Jim Brown’s inclusion, this isn’t an award reserved for quarterbacks exclusively, although they have taken home most of the trophies. Other notable non-QB winners include Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Marshall Faulk, Terrell Davis, and Barry Sanders, among others. Notably, a Wide Receiver has never won this award.
Out of the 57 possible winners, 38 have been quarterbacks, 16 have been running backs, and only two defensive players have been named MVP: Alan Page (DT, 1971), and Lawrence Taylor (LB, 1986). Also, Mark Moseley is the only Special Teams player to win the award (K, 1986).
So, unsurprisingly, the NFL MVP 2022 odds also feature fifteen quarterbacks at the top of the odds table. That’s because the NFL has become a quarterback’s league now more than ever, and the passing-happy dynamic of today’s game makes it easier for them to stand out from the rest of the pack.
When Is NFL MVP Announced?
The reason why the start of the season is the best time to check the NFL MVP odds is that is when the value is at an all-time high. The odds will be adjusted each season according to the player’s performance and how his team fares in the regular season, meaning those who do good will see their odds plummet and vice versa.
The panel of 50 experts votes based on their regular-season performances, but they don’t submit their ballots until the last day of the season. However, as a tradition, they don’t announce the winner until the day before the last game of the season.
Over the past 12 years, the National Football League has held a ceremony to honor their MVP winners, as well as the AP Offensive Player of the Year, AP Defensive Player of the Year, and many more awards. This ceremony is pre-recorded and then broadcast on the same day, which is always the night before the Super Bowl. So, no, you won’t see the Super Bowl MVP get awarded on that stage.