AFC South Predictions NFL 2022-23: Odds, Picks and Projections

Check out everything AFC South with our top predictions

This is your go-to resource for everything AFC South throughout the NFL season. We’ll be covering news from the division, providing updates on form and the AFC South standings as well as providing you well-researched AFC South predictions.

Our pro pick on the Titans vs. Jaguars AFC South matchup

The clash between the Titans and the Jaguars this weekend is absolutely massive with the divisional title up for grabs. Despite that, we’re steering well clear of the money line bets and instead turn to the total points market where we weigh up whether we’re about to witness a cagey or gung ho game of football.

With this over and under bet we are betting on over 39.5 points. The Titans have gone over that 39.5 marker in three of their last five games whilst averaging 41.4 points in that period. The Jaguars have also seen three of their last five matches go north of 39.5 points but with a points average that is considerably higher at 48.4. Finally, we have the head to head record to factor in as well. Four of the last five meetings between these two sides have gone over 39.5 with a game average of 47.6.

Our best bet on who will win AFC South in 2023

Right, if we are being completely honest, when we thought about our AFC South picks we immediately fancied the Indianapolis Colts to claim the top spot. That is not who we are backing here though. The Colts could well take the division but we quite like the look of the Tennessee Titans as well and, notably, with better odds, we think the value on offer from the bookmakers is actually a smarter bet.

There is a lot of talk about the Titans being a weaker outfit than they were a year ago with AJ Brown a big loss but they topped the AFC South standings last season – and did so without much of a challenge from the other sides. They put up a 12-5 record last year giving them room for a slight drop off too and, whilst punters keep writing them off, it’s worth remembering that they have Derrick Henry in their ranks. If he remains fit then he’s a huge asset to the team.

Of course, we’ve described this AFC South prediction as a value bet rather than a nailed-on winner and the reason for those doubts can be found at quarterback. Ryan Tannehill is the go to QB; his numbers just aren’t reliable enough and now he’s gone five years without hitting the 4,000 mark. Thankfully though, the Titans’ defense is formidable with Jeffery Simmons the cornerstone. If Simmons and co perform again then the pressure on Tannehill will ease – it will help his confidence no end.

What are the current AFC South odds?

Here are the odds to win the AFC South:

• Jacksonville Jaguars @ -200
• Tennessee Titans @ +150
• Indianapolis Colts @ +15000
• Houston Texans @ Odds not offered

Check out more information on the entire AFC by visiting our AFC Championship page.

What is the current situation in the AFC South

For a while now it has been clear that the AFC South was going to end in two very clear categories with two of the teams battling for the title and the other two being eliminated after an extended period of not being good enough; that’s exactly how it has played out.

Jaguars

The Jaguars have their fate in their own hands heading into the last fixture of the regular season. They edge out the Titans at the top of the AFC South standings courtesy of their 8-8 record being superior to that of the Titans. The Jaguars are a side in good form too having won each of their last four games. Amongst those four wins have been some seriously good results as well notably a win over the Cowboys. The other game that really catches the eye is their clash with the Titans; the Jaguars won that game but with the fixture repeating itself again on the final day it is safe to say there is still an awful lot at stake.

Titans

So, that is where the Jaguars are at right now. Where then does that leave the Titans? Well, in truth, it is very simple. They have to go and beat the Jaguars at the weekend. If they do that then it will be rule books and calculators at the ready as the final moments of the game are playing out. Lose though and it will be a really disappointing blow. What the Titans are perhaps more likely to be annoyed with though is the dip in form; the Titans were storming this division before a six game winless run has seen them end the campaign in this nervous position.

Texans

We seem to keep chewing over old ground with regards to the Texans. They’ve been awful all season amassing just two wins and after getting taken apart last time out they will just be looking forward to the end of the campaign before the regroup and come back next year. With just one game left all they can do is try and get a result there – against the Colts – to end on a high. Should they grab a win it might – and we mean might – be enough for them to avoid finishing the season as the worst side in the NFL.

Colts

We’ve already lambasted the season the Texans have had but the Colts haven’t achieved much more to be honest. They’ve only managed to win four games all season. Like the Texans, for a long time the playoffs were looking unrealistic and that has now been confirmed. The Colts end their season with a clash against the Texans, which both teams will hope to win. Neither will want to end their regular season out of the playoffs and having signed off with their year with the other so-called “loser” of the division.

A statistical look at the AFC South’s history

Right, we’ll park the AFC South predictions for a minute now and instead take a brief look back at some of the AFC South’s past team achievements, rivalries, big-name players, and stats.

Team History

We’ve spent a fair bit of time talking about the odds to win AFC South but no matter what those AFC South odds say, it’s hard to see the Super Bowl championship heading back there; after all, between the four teams, they’ve managed to get their hands on the Vince Lombardi trophy just twice. So, on that subject, we might as well take a look at the Colts; they’re responsible for both those Super Bowl wins whilst they also won three Championships prior to the NFL formation. What is noteworthy though is that their last triumph came back in 2006. They are by far the most decorated team in the AFC South though with three conference titles and 16 division wins capping off their honors list.

The closest side to the Colts on the honors front is the Titans. The Super Bowl has obviously evaded their grasp and one Conference win is hardly amazing but 11 Divisional Championships shouldn’t be sniffed at. The other AFC South teams are somewhat younger in their existence. The Texans were only formed in 2002 but amassed six Division titles in an impressive eight-year spell between 2011 and 2019. Then, last but not least, you’ve got the Jaguars. They are fast approaching their 30-year anniversary (in 2025) but have little to show for it. They’ve been top dog amongst the AFC South teams just once and scooped the AFC Central title a couple of times. If they fail to make the post-season this year then it will be five years since they did so.

All-time records

Looking at the honors list of the AFC South teams puts the Colts head and shoulders clear of the other three teams. How though do they measure up from a win percentage perspective? It is again the Colts that lead the way with a 53% win record. Tracking behind them is the Titans on 49.1% with the Texans and Jaguars both ranking quite poorly in the list with win percentages of 43.3% and 41.6% respectively.

Biggest rivalries

Some AFC divisions, such as the AFC East match-up between Patriots and Jets, have big rivalries in them. The AFC South doesn’t have quite the same level of hatred within it; perhaps that’s because some of the history simply isn’t there. That said if we were picking one clash to keep a close eye on it’s the Texans vs the Titans; this rivalry dates back to the mid-nineties and exists due to the Oilers franchise being relocated from Houston to Tennessee leaving Houston teamless until the formation of the Texans. Interested in checking out some more detail on that aforementioned Patriots-Jets match-up? Head on over to our AFC East predictions page.

Most famous players

We’d usually use this space to talk about some of the biggest and best names to have played in the AFC South but, given what we’ve already covered around a lack of success, we are instead going to pour our worship in just one direction; that’s towards former Colts man Peyton Manning. We might only be referencing a solitary player but they don’t come much better than Manning; he guided the Colts to Super Bowl XLI glory, earned four NFL MVP awards, and threw near on 55,000 yards for the franchise.

Season records

Before we sign off on our AFC South predictions article, we’re just going to put up a list of interesting stat leaders meaning you can stay clued up on some records throughout the season:

• Most passing yards – Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans, 4,823 in 2020
• Most passing touchdowns – Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts, 49 in 2004
• Most rushing yards – Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans, 2,027 in 2020
• Most rushing touchdowns – Earl Campbell, Houston Texans, 19 in 1979
• Most interceptions – Fred Glick, Houston Texans, 12 in 1963
• Most tackles – DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans, 126 in 2006