Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers NBA Playoff Betting Tips & Picks: Game 4

The Philadelphia 76ers can tie the Miami Heat in Game 4 of their second round NBA playoff series this Sunday evening. Joel Embiid returned from an orbital fracture and concussion to lead the 76ers to a 99-79 win in Game 3 on Friday night. Can the league’s scoring champion put on a show to tie the series in what should be a higher scoring game?

Philadelphia avoided going down 3-0 with a defensive-led win against the Heat in Game 3. It was the first time all season the 76ers held an opponent under 80 points, a hard thing to do in today’s NBA. But the Heat were abysmal with 35.1% shooting from the field and 7-for-30 from three. It was the second time this season the 76ers held Miami under 38.5% shooting. Jimmy Butler (33 points on 12-of-22 shooting) was the lone bright spot for Miami’s offense.

Joel Embiid wore a mask in his return and scored 18 points in just over 36 minutes of action. But the offense really took off in the second half, scoring 58 of the 99 points after halftime. Tyrese Maxey finally came alive from three-point territory, hitting five of them for 21 points. But it was Danny Green who was red hot, shooting 7-of-9 from three in one of the best playoff games of his career.

The Heat failed to score more than 17 points in three of the four quarters. Miami point guard Kyle Lowry played for the first time since Game 3 of the Atlanta series, but he was scoreless in 25 minutes, missing all four of his shots.

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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 Info

Date/Time: Sunday, May 8, 2022, 8:00 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

For all the info on where you can catch this game, see our streaming guide.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Odds Analysis

Philadelphia is a 1.5-point home favorite, which is about what the team was in Game 3 after news broke that Embiid was going to give it a go. Philadelphia has not been an impressive home favorite this season, posting a record of 16-19 ATS. Miami is 13-6 ATS as a road underdog, the second-best record in the NBA.

The total for this game is 207.5 points, a low projection after Game 3 was one of the lowest-scoring playoff games in recent years. This series has been all over the map in points scored with 198, 222, and 178 points in the first three games. The over is just 1-7 in Miami’s playoff games this year and 3-6 for the 76ers.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions

Philadelphia -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

With both teams fairly close to full strength right now, it is hard to say that the top-seeded Heat have a better roster than the 76ers. With Embiid back, the 76ers have the league’s leading scorer, a future Hall of Famer and triple-double threat in James Harden, a strong shooter in Tyrese Maxey, a capable 20-point scorer in Tobias Harris, and even Danny Green made seven threes in Game 3 as he plays the Seth Curry role in this offense.

Not all of these players seem to click on the same night for Philadelphia, but a down game by Harden can be offset by a big game from Maxey or Harris. Embiid should be better in his second game back as he gets used to playing with the mask.

Miami has had an interesting postseason as Jimmy Butler has been outstanding, but he has not received a ton of help at times. Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are the second and third-leading scorers on the team, but both have been bad in several playoff games. They need to play much better than this or the Heat are in danger of blowing this lead, a lead they grew without having to face Embiid in Miami.

The 76ers seemed to figure their offense out in the second half of Game 3 while the Heat never did. Look for the Heat to shoot much better than 35% this time, but the 76ers should still win this game at home and tie the series. The fear that Embiid could miss the whole series is gone, and that gives Philadelphia a realistic shot to come back and win this series.

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Over 207.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

It was hard to believe an NBA playoff game in 2022 could go to halftime with a 41-34 score, but these teams did that with neither shooting 35% from the field in the first half. But there is plenty of shooting talent on both of these teams to provide a higher-scoring game than what we’ve seen so far.

The over has not been hitting for these Miami playoff games, but 207.5 is a pretty low bar. The over is 12-7 in games where Miami is a road underdog, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Let’s go with both teams to shoot much better in this pivotal Game 4 and to hit the over.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Joel Embiid Over 23.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel)

For a player prop pick on FanDuel, let’s trust that the NBA’s leading scorer is going to easily surpass his low line of 23.5 points. Joel Embiid topped 24 points a total of 52 times in 68 games in the regular season. He has done it only once in four games against Miami, a quality defense, but he took too much of a health risk to return to this series to only provide a minimal scoring contribution. Don’t expect a 35-point MVP performance, but Embiid should be able to clear his over in points in this matchup.

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