Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 3 Prediction, Odds & Picks

The Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and the Heat are moving to Boston after the two teams shared wins after the first two games in Miami. Can the Heat punch back to get home-court advantage again or will the Celtics go up in the series?

The 2022 NBA playoffs are reaching a critical stage with Conference Finals heating up and we’ve already seen a lot of interesting things in the first two games of the Heat vs Celtics series.

We saw just how much the Celtics missed Smart and Horford in Game 1 of the series since Boston simply ran the Heat off the court in Game 2 with the duo back in the starting lineup. Now the Celtics have the home-court advantage in the series and if they can defend their home court, starting with Game 3, they will get a chance to play in the NBA Finals.

Boston Celtics Stats:

Record (Regular Season + Playoffs): 60-35

ATS: 53-40-2

Over/Under: 46-47-2

Meanwhile, the Heat can’t be happy with the fact that they lost at home, but more worrying is the fact that the Celtics dominated Game 2 from start to end, winning the game by 25 points. Miami is still missing Kyle Lowry, but even without him, they need to do much better if they want to make this a close and interesting series.

Miami Heat Stats:

Record (Regular Season + Playoffs): 62-33

ATS: 54-40-1

Over/Under: 53-42-0

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 3 Info

Date/Time: Saturday, May 21, 2022, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC (How to Live Stream the Game Online)
Location: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 3 Odds Analysis

The Celtics are a 6.5-point favorite ahead of Game 3 and that’s hardly a surprise given the result of Game 2, which the Celtics won by 25 points. However, we did not expect the spread to be that high, perhaps a couple of points lower. After all, the Heat are the top seed in the East.

Meanwhile, the line for total points remains the same, at 207.5 total points. That is a bit surprising since we 229 points being scored in Game 2. Furthermore, Game 1 also went over the line, so we expected points total to be over 210, but we do understand why the bookies decided to keep the line at such a low point.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 3 Picks

Before we get on with our betting predictions for the Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics series Game 3, you should also take a look at our NBA daily betting picks and NBA playoffs parlay tips.

Without further ado, here are our picks and predictions for Saturday’s NBA matchup between Miami Heat and Boston Celtics:

Boston Celtics to Cover the Spread (-6.5) @ -105 (Odds via FanDuel)

Yes, we wanted to see the spread set a bit lower, but we are still going with the Celtics. After all, we expected the Celtics to punch back after that loss in Game 1 and they dully delivered in Game 2. In fact, they were so good in that game that they ended up winning it by 25 points.

So, with the series moving back to Boston, we can see the Celtics keeping that good rhythm going. After all, both Smart and Horford are back and the Celtics now also have a healthy Robert Williams III, unlike the Bucks series. Meanwhile, the Heat are still without Kyle Lowry. All things considered, we would be surprised if the Heat avoid another convincing loss in Game 3.

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Under 207.5 Total Points @ -110 (Odds via Caesars)

Both games of the Heat vs Celtics series so far have gone over the line for total points, which is pretty surprising to us. After all, these are a two defensive-minded teams and we don’t expect this trend to continue in the upcoming games of the series.

With that in mind, our next prediction is for Game 3 to go under 207.5 total points. Yes, we would’ve felt more comfortable if the line was a bit higher, but we still feel that it’s time for one of the games of this series to go under.

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Our Bonus Player Prop Pick: Al Horford Over 9.5 Total Points @ -115 (Odds via BetMGM)

We’ve seen some spectacular performances from Al Horford in these playoffs, even one 30-point game against the Bucks in which he set his record in the playoffs. That being said, Horford went under 10 points in three games in a row before missing Game 1 against the Heat due to health and safety protocols.

In Game 2, Horford scored exactly 10 points, while going 4-4 from the field and 2-2 from the 3-point line. That’s a good sign going forward and we expect the Celtics to utilize Horford more in offense since that gives them another great option that the Heat will have to focus on. With that in mind, we can see Horford scoring ten or more points in Game 3 in Boston.

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