Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks NBA Odds & Prediction: Game 4

The Atlanta Hawks will not be swept after a 16-point comeback win in Game 3 on Friday night. Now the Hawks can tie the series on Sunday night before things shift back to Miami.

For a half in Game 3, the Hawks lived up to the hype of their offense being the second-most efficient in home games this season. But Atlanta’s 61-54 halftime lead quickly turned into a 16-point deficit with the Heat threatening to take a 3-0 series lead.

Miami guard Kyle Lowry left with a hamstring injury late in the third quarter, and the Heat faltered down the stretch. The Hawks leaned on their guards to rally in the fourth quarter. While Trae Young (24 points) was still not effective from three, he kept his turnovers down and made the game-winning floater with 4.4 seconds left.

Jimmy Butler flirted with a triple-double for the Heat, but he scored just 20 points after having 45 in Game 2. However, it’s the last three points he didn’t score that stand out the most. His bad look at a game-winning shot attempt was well off the mark as the Hawks held on for the 111-110 win. This sets up an exciting Game 4 on Sunday night.

In addition to our predictions for Heat vs. Hawks, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, April 24, 2022, 7:00 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia

For more information on where you can view this game, see our streaming guide.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds Analysis

Miami remains a 1.5-point road favorite for Game 4. Miami has been favored in every game this series and is still 5-2 (SU and ATS) against Atlanta this season.

The total for this game is again 221.5 points. Fittingly enough, Game 3 ended at 221 points with Butler’s missed three allowing the under to hit and Atlanta to cover as we predicted.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions

Miami Heat -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Miami is still in a good spot in this series. Lowry does not feel his hamstring injury is serious and he could be in action on Sunday night. The Heat blew a 16-point lead, but the defense still made things difficult on Atlanta, which shot 37.5% from three but 51.2% overall. Miami was plus-9 in rebounds and lost. On the season, Miami was 18-2 when winning the rebound battle by at least nine boards.

Butler got more scoring help this time from Max Strus (20 points) and Tyler Herro (team-high 24 points), but Herro was a minus-21 as the Hawks’ reserves helped turn this game around. Delon Wright stepped up by making all six of his field goals, making up for a 1-for-8 from three performance from Kevin Huerter. But Young was still just 2-of-6 from three and has not found his deep shot in three games in this series.

Few teams have bounced back better after a loss than Miami this season. Following a loss, Miami is 18-10-1 ATS (64.3%), the third-best record in the NBA. Meanwhile, Atlanta is one of the worst teams after a win, going 18-27 ATS (40%) in the next game.

The road team is 17-8 SU in the last 25 cases of a Game 4 in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Trust Miami’s defense to still make things difficult on the Hawks and get the cover in this crucial Game 4.

Over 221.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

This series still feels due for a high-scoring shootout. Both offenses have struggled, including both from three-point territory on Friday, but that game still got to 221 points. Bam Adebayo has not got his scoring going yet, Clint Capela is still out, and Young has been held to five threes in the series.

Atlanta has increased its scoring by at least six points in each game this series. The over hit 61.9% of the time in Miami’s road games this season, the second-highest rate in the NBA. Let’s go with the over in this one.

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