Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks NBA Prediction & Betting Tips: Game 3

The Miami Heat faced a better effort from the Atlanta Hawks in Game 2, but they were still able to take a 2-0 series lead with a 115-105 win. Now the series shifts back to Atlanta where the Hawks have been a much better team this season.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Top Two Picks

Atlanta Hawks +2 @ -110

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Under 221.5 Points @ -110

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In Game 2, the Heat started to pull away from Atlanta in the third quarter of what was a very close game thanks to a sublime performance from Jimmy Butler. He scored 15 of his playoff career-high 45 points in the third quarter.

The Heat really needed this performance as it was another quiet game for Bam Adebayo (six points) and Tyler Herro (15 points). Duncan Robinson was the hero in Game 1 with eight made threes, but the bench sharpshooter did not even attempt a single shot in seven minutes of action.

The Hawks shot a more respectable 47.1% from the field this time, but Trae Young still could not find his deep ball. He was 2-for-10 from three and 8-for-10 from two-point territory on his way to scoring 25 points. But the Heat have done a great job on Young and held him to 11 assists in the two games. Atlanta wasted a fine 29-point performance from Bogdan Bogdanovic, who made five threes.

In addition to our predictions for Heat vs. Hawks, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Friday, April 22, 2022, 7:00 p.m. ET


Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia

For the available options to watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Prediction

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Odds Analysis

With the venue switching to Atlanta, Miami is only a 2-point favorite. Miami is 12-10-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. The Hawks are 1-5 (SU and ATS) against Miami this season.

The total for this game is 221.5 points, the highest yet for the series, up four points from the total in Game 2, which ended at 220. The Heat have scored 115 points in each game this series.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions

Atlanta Hawks +2 (-110 at FanDuel)

For this to still be a series, the Hawks must win this game to avoid going down 0-3. Fortunately, teams down 2-0 in a series and playing Game 3 at home tend to win in the NBA. Teams in Miami’s situation only take a 3-0 series lead 41.9% of the time.

The other good news is that Atlanta has been significantly better at home this season:

  • Home: 28-14 SU, 24-18 ATS (fifth in NBA), No. 8 in Net Rating (plus-5.0)
  • Road: 17-27 SU, 15-29 ATS (28th in NBA), No. 18 in Net Rating (minus-1.7)

The Heat are no slouches on the road where they are ranked No. 4 in Net Rating (plus-3.3) and have a 24-17 SU record. But home is where Trae Young goes from a 35% three-point shooter to 41.4% this season. Eleven of Young’s 14 games with more than 35 points this season came at home.

The Hawks were also able to win the rebound battle by six boards in Game 2 after being outdone by a season-worst 17 rebounds in Game 1. If Young can find his shot at home and get help from his teammates, then the Hawks are more than capable of winning this one. Miami is not clicking on all cylinders yet and has relied on career-playoff performances from Robinson (Game 1) and Butler (Game 2). The Hawks must play this one like their season is on the line, and for a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, I believe they will get the job done on Friday night.

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Under 221.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

For an Atlanta team that ranked 26th in Defensive Rating and has had to play this series without its anchor (Clint Capela), allowing 115 points in consecutive road games was not so bad. Again, the Heat are not getting anywhere near their normal point production out of Tyler Herro (20.7) and Bam Adebayo (19.1), their second and third-leading scorers in the regular season.

Not many players in this series are finding their averages coming easily to them. We are either seeing struggles or a couple career performances. With the importance of this Game 3 and the venue switch to Atlanta, look for the game to be more of a grind and less of a shootout. I like the odds for the under in this matchup.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Trae Young Over 7.5 First Quarter Points (-110 at FanDuel)

In line with the game script of the Hawks coming out strong to defend home court, you can bet on Trae Young to hit his over in first-quarter points at FanDuel. Even in Game 2, Young scored 10 points in the first quarter, surpassing his season-low eight points in all of Game 1. He achieved this despite shooting 1-for-6 from three. It would make a lot of sense for him to seek an even stronger start at home in this one.

For more daily NBA parlay picks, see here.

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