Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Playoff Preview & Predictions: Game 6

The Memphis Grizzlies avoided elimination in stunning fashion with a 134-95 win over the Golden State Warriors in Game 5. It is the third-largest win in NBA playoff history by a team facing elimination. But can the Grizzlies find a way to win on the road and get this second-round playoff series back to Memphis for a Game 7?

The Grizzlies are now 21-6 without Ja Morant this season, an achievement unheard of for a team with zero All-Star players missing their best player. With the season on the line, Memphis played an outstanding Game 5 and led by as many as 55 points before handing the Warriors their second-largest playoff defeat in the Steph Curry era.

We knew the Grizzlies could amp up the defense without Morant, but the offense scoring 77 points in the first half was a shocking development. Desmond Bane played his best game of the series and was one of three Grizzlies to score 21 points. Point guard Tyus Jones shined in Morant’s place with 21 points and nine assists. Curry was held to 14 points as no one in this game logged 26 minutes of court action due to the blowout on the scoreboard.

Memphis has been good at getting the Warriors to turn the ball over this season, and Golden State was especially sloppy in Game 5 with a season-high 22 turnovers. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies made 18 threes as they continue to shoot the three at a higher volume and efficiency rate than they did in the regular season.

The pressure swings back to Golden State to win at home and avoid going back to Memphis for Game 7. Lost a bit in the Morant injury has been the absence of Golden State coach Steve Kerr, who tested positive for COVID on Monday just before Game 4. The Warriors have played very sloppy, undisciplined offensive ball in these two games without Kerr. It is looking unlikely that he will be cleared from the protocol in time for Friday night’s tip off, so this could be the third-straight game for assistant Mike Brown to lead the team.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Game 6 Info

Date/Time: Friday, May 13, 2022, 10:00 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

For the details on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Odds Analysis

The Warriors are an 8.5-point home favorite in Game 6. This line was 10 in Game 4 when we first learned that Morant was out, but after the Grizzlies led by 12 points in the fourth quarter before losing 101-98, and then the 39-point blowout in Game 5, this has gone down to 8.5. Still, it feels like a big number for the Warriors to cover with how inconsistent they have played in this series. Memphis is 22-12-1 ATS as an underdog, the third-best record this season.

The total for this game is 217 points, which is the lowest yet in this series. But with the way teams are blowing each other out this week and the way Game 4 went down, it would not be surprising to see another low score between these teams as the defensive intensity heats up with elimination on the line.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

Memphis +8.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

It’s not like a superior version of Golden State has never blown a 3-1 series lead before. But the fact is in nine meetings between these teams this season, the Warriors have only won two of them by more than three points. The only blowout was Game 3 when the Warriors couldn’t miss a shot.

Things are trending towards Memphis again. Jones has been impressive in filling in for Morant. Bane finally got going for the Grizzlies, which is so important as Dillon Brooks continues to have a poor series. But Klay Thompson has been very inconsistent, and Jordan Poole was held to a season-low three points in Game 5. Memphis going with center Steven Adams has helped give the team some size and a rebounding advantage. The Warriors were only able to get four offensive rebounds in Game 5 after having 16 back in their Game 1 win on the road.

Memphis has a lot of confidence without Morant, which is unusual for a team missing its best player. But the results speak for themselves, and the Grizzlies were a statistically better team without him this season. They just have to keep getting offensive production from the likes of Bane, Jones, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

The loss of Kerr cannot be understated for Golden State. While you’d ideally always pick a great player over a great coach, this might be the series where the coach matters more given Memphis’ track record without Morant. The Warriors need to play up to their abilities, and while you should expect Curry and Poole to play much better at home, this is still a large spread to cover against a talented, desperate roster with a very good coach in Taylor Jenkins.

The Grizzlies are still fighting against history as teams up 3-2 still win the series over 84% of the time. Teams up 3-2 at home in Game 6 win 62% of the time, so most series do not reach Game 7. While you should expect the Warriors to win at home as an 8.5-point favorite, let’s hedge and go with the Grizzlies to cover as the teams play another nail-biter.

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Under 217.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

The over and under for total points have alternated in this series with Game 5 going over thanks to Memphis’ hot offense. So, if this trend continues then we would expect another low-scoring game to go under in Game 6. It makes sense too after the way Game 4 went between these teams in this venue with Morant and Kerr out. Those same variables will be present in this one, complete with the added pressure of elimination on the line.

While the over is 7-3 in Golden State’s playoff games, it only hit 43.9% of the time in games where the Warriors were a home favorite. Golden State has been one of the worst over bets in the league this year. Whether it’s the Morant-less offense turning into a pumpkin or both teams struggling a la Game 4, let’s go with the under for Game 6.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Steph Curry Over 27.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel)

For a player prop pick at FanDuel, let’s put our trust in Steph Curry to deliver at home. With Thompson and Poole being so unpredictable in this series, Curry had been the safe one with at least 24 points in the first four games before he only scored 14 points in 25 minutes of Game 5. But Curry has a strong home-road split this postseason where all but one of his 30-point games have been at home, and all but one of his sub-30 point games have been on the road. He only needs 28 points to hit his over in this matchup.

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