Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Playoff Odds & Predictions: Game 4

The Golden State Warriors look to leave home with a 3-1 lead over the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 4 of their second-round NBA playoff series. The Warriors blew out the Grizzlies by 30 points in Game 3, a 142-112 loss that saw Ja Morant limp away with a knee injury. Is the series getting away from Memphis too?

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Top Two Picks

Memphis +9 @ -110

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Under 225.5 Points @ -105

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In Game 3, the Warriors reminded us of how deadly they can be at home. While Memphis hit six early threes and led by 13 points in the first quarter, the Warriors dominated the final three quarters on their way to an easy 142-112 win, a 43-point turnaround.

The Warriors shot a season-high 63.1% from the field, and that was even with a cold night from Steph Curry, who finished 2-of-8 from three. Curry still scored a team-high 30 points as he made all 14 of his free throws and the Warriors were 19-of-21 at the line. Klay Thompson finally found his shot this series and scored 21 points while Jordan Poole put up another impressive 27-point game off the bench. The Warriors had 34 assists and are now 29-1 this season when they get at least 30 assists.

With Memphis shooting 43.5% as getting to the basket was a struggle again, the Warriors had their biggest FG% difference in a game this season (+19.6%). The Grizzlies got another 34-point game from Ja Morant, but he left with the injury and the supporting cast was not good enough. Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane both hit four threes, but it was not enough after Memphis allowed a season-high 142 points.

For more analysis on the second round of the NBA playoffs, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Game 4 Info

Date/Time: Monday, May 9, 2022, 10:00 p.m. ET


Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

For all the information on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors prediction

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Odds Analysis

With uncertainty to Morant’s health, the Warriors are now a 9-point favorite in Game 4 after closing as a 7-point favorite in Game 3. When favored by at least nine points this season, Golden State is 12-12 ATS and 21-3 SU. Memphis is 20-12-1 ATS as an underdog, the fourth-best record in the league.

The total for this game is 225.5 points, which the teams easily blew past in Game 3. But Memphis’ heavy reliance on Morant in this series and Golden State likely to regress from its best shooting performance of the season gives real pause to smashing the over.

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

Memphis +9 (-110 at FanDuel)

Many will want to write off the Grizzlies after Game 3, but this is a large spread for a team that has had an exceptional season. Saturday was the ninth time Memphis lost by 20-plus points this season. In six of the previous eight instances, the Grizzlies won their next game. Memphis is 19-10 ATS after a loss, the third-best record in the league.

The Warriors just went from one of their worst shooting games of the season to their best. Chances are they land somewhere closer to average this time around. While the Morant injury is not good news, the team has played at a high level without him this season, including a 20-5 record and a win over these Warriors (albeit without Steph Curry).

Desmond Bane finally found his three-point shot and made four in Game 3, which should restore some confidence in the young guard. Dillon Brooks will be back from his one-game suspension, and he has been one of the driving forces behind Memphis’ success without Morant.

The Warriors may very well win this game, but the Grizzlies should be able to keep it within single digits to get the cover.

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Under 225.5 Points (-105 at BetMGM)

These are two smart, well-coached teams, so you have to expect adjustments. Games 1 and 3 were offensive showcases, but Game 2 in the middle was a defensive affair more in line with what we saw from these teams in the regular season matchups. With Morant either out or not 100%, it is reasonable to think the Grizzlies, who are shooting the three beyond their usual output, will regress in scoring. It is only logical for the Warriors to cool down after shooting 63.1% on Saturday night.

That is why the under should be a solid bet in this matchup. Both teams know how important this game is as Memphis is unlikely to come back from a 3-1 hole against a team this good. The Grizzlies must defend better than they did in Game 3, and they may have to rally for a more defensive approach if Morant isn’t averaging over 35 points for them like he has in the first three games. Go with the under, which hits 55% of the time in games where Golden State is a home favorite this season.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Draymond Green Over 7.5 Assists (+110 at FanDuel)

For a player prop pick at FanDuel, take a good look at Draymond Green hitting his over in assists. When he’s not getting ejected in Game 1, he’s finished with seven or eight assists in the other two games this series. Golden State just had 34 assists in Game 3 and are smoking hot at home where Green averages 7.3 assists this season compared to 6.6 assists on the road. The Warriors average 118.8 points per game this postseason, 5.2 more points than the next closest team (Memphis). Green makes a lot of the important passes in this offense to set up the easy three-point shots by the guards. The “triple-single” legend is a good candidate to hit his over for assists.

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For more daily NBA parlay picks, see here.

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