Jaguars vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 10 Predictions

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Week 10 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-2) are a heavy favorite at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) with the NFL Week 10 odds placing the Chiefs as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5 points.

But home games have been anything but a breeze for this Kansas City team in 2022:

  • Week 2 vs. Chargers: Chiefs trailed 17-7 in third quarter before rallying with a pick-six in a 27-24 win.
  • Week 5 vs. Raiders: Chiefs trailed 17-0 in second quarter before a dramatic comeback and a 30-29 escape.
  • Week 6 vs. Bills: In the Game of the Year, the Chiefs blew a late lead and lost 24-20 after Patrick Mahomes was intercepted in the final minute.
  • Week 9 vs. Titans: Despite being a 14-point favorite, the Chiefs were down 17-9 in the fourth quarter before Mahomes engineered one of his best drives and the Chiefs won 20-17 in overtime.

Four games decided by 1-to-4 points. We may not get that much drama here, but the Jaguars have yet to lose a game by more than eight points this season.

Players to watch in the Jaguars vs. Chiefs game

Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Etienne: Since getting his first start in Week 6, Etienne is averaging 116.3 rushing yards per game. He is also averaging 5.7 yards per carry on the season. We have seen the Chiefs struggle with Derrick Henry (Titans) and Josh Jacobs (Raiders) in recent weeks. This should be a great matchup for Etienne to hit some props like the over in rushing yards and an anytime touchdown scorer.

Kansas City Chiefs

JuJu Smith-Schuster: Ever since his long touchdown against Buffalo, JuJu has been on fire for Mahomes and this offense, undeniably taking over the role of No. 1 wide receiver. Misused in Pittsburgh the last few years, Smith-Schuster should continue to be one of Mahomes’ go-to targets after he had 12 targets and 10 catches against the Titans.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Jaguars vs. Chiefs game

We have two NFL Week 10 predictions for the first Jaguars-Chiefs matchup in over three years.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs Point Spread Pick: Jaguars +9.5 (-107)

The Jaguars vs. Chiefs spread opened with the Chiefs as a 9.5-point home favorite and it has been steadily holding at that number going into the weekend.

The Jaguars have lost 40 consecutive games when allowing more than 20 points, including an 0-18 record for the Trevor Lawrence era. It’s not so much a question of will the Chiefs win, but will they cover the spread?

Thanks to some early-season wins over the Colts (24-0) and Chargers (38-10), the Jaguars are statistically terrible for a 3-6 team. Winning close games has been an issue, but the Jaguars played the Eagles tough in Philadelphia in wet conditions before losing 29-21.

Jacksonville is No. 7 in offensive yards per drive and No. 9 in plays per drive, so this offense can possess the ball and limit the times Mahomes gets the ball in this one. Jacksonville is also No. 17 in defensive points per drive allowed while the Chiefs are down at No. 25. Kansas City had allowed at least 20 points in 12 consecutive games before holding the Titans, with a rookie quarterback, to 17 points last week.

The Chiefs have allowed quarterbacks to throw 17 touchdowns (most in NFL) and only intercepted three passes so far. Lawrence may not be ready for big-time games like this one, but he is a tougher quarterback to deal with than Malik Willis. The Jaguars should be able to score at least 20 points in this one. I like them to stay within single digits of this one and get the cover.

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Player Prop: Travis Etienne Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-126)

The odds favor Travis Kelce (-160) as the most likely to score a touchdown in this one. While he is always an enticing option, he’s having a scoring drought and the Jaguars have only allowed one touchdown to a tight end this season.

Meanwhile, the price on Etienne to score again is very favorable as he is starting to look like a weekly visitor to the end zone now that James Robinson is with the Jets and Etienne is playing 80% of the snaps.

In the first six games this season, Etienne was only playing about 50% of the snaps in a time share with Robinson. But in the last three games, that has gone up dramatically and so has his production. He has four touchdowns in the last three games after being held out of the end zone in the first six games this season.

The Chiefs have only allowed five rushing touchdowns since they give up so many through the air, but the Jaguas are one of the best rushing teams they will face this year. The Jaguars are also balanced in their scoring with 11 rushing touchdowns and 11 passing touchdowns.

With the high projected total of 50.5 points, expectations are for touchdowns in this one. Etienne should be an NFL bet of the week to find the end zone.

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Frequently asked questions about the Jaguars vs. Chiefs game in Week 10

The game is being played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

In the Trevor Lawrence era (2021-22), the Jaguars are a league-worst 3-8 ATS as a road underdog.

In his 82nd game (including playoffs) against the Titans last week, Mahomes won a game where he threw at least 45 passes for the 12th time. That matches the career win total in games with 45 attempts by Peyton Manning (293 games played), Dan Marino (260), and Brett Favre (326).

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