Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies NBA Playoff Betting Tips & Predictions: Game 5

The Golden State Warriors can eliminate the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 5 of their second-round NBA playoff series. The Grizzlies fought hard without Ja Morant in Game 4, but the Warriors were able to come back in the fourth quarter for a 101-98 win to take a crucial 3-1 lead. Will the series make it back to Golden State?

In Game 4, the Grizzlies showed us why they were 20-5 without Ja Morant this season. Despite being a 10-point underdog and coming off a 30-point defeat, the Grizzlies fought hard with the Warriors in their building for 48 minutes. They just ran out of offensive steam in the end after blowing a 12-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Warriors took their first lead of the game with 45 seconds left as Steph Curry led the way with a superb fourth quarter, scoring 18 points. It made up for a poor shooting night as the Warriors shot 40% from the field and 24.3% from three just two days after their best shooting game of the season on Saturday.

Memphis’ Desmond Bane was again held to single-digit points (eight), and Dillon Brooks returned from his suspension to shoot 5-of-19 from the field. Tyus Jones, Morant’s replacement at point guard, scored 19 points with five assists. Kyle Anderson led the bench effort with 17 points, but he missed five free throws that could have been crucial in a tight, low-scoring game.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, May 11, 2022, 9:30 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Location: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

For information on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds Analysis

Golden State continues to be favored in this series and is a 4-point road favorite for Game 5. The spread was originally 2.5, but it went up after news broke Tuesday evening that a bone bruise will keep Ja Morant out for the rest of the postseason. But even with Morant available in the first two games of the series at home, Golden State was still a 1.5-to-2.5 point favorite in those games.

The total for this game is 218.5 points, which is a series low after what was a true grind of a Game 4 in Golden State. It was a 41-38 game at halftime, which sounds like a playoff game from the NBA’s late 1990s or early 2000s.  But these teams both have shooters capable of much more, so it should be a game that finishes much closer to the line. On the other hand, four of the eight matchups between these teams this season have finished more than 20 points away from the projected total.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions

Golden State -4 (-110 at FanDuel)

It really feels like the Grizzlies blew a golden opportunity in Game 4 to keep this series alive and well after the Warriors shot so poorly. Golden State was 9-of-37 (24.3%) from three, the second time in three games where the Warriors shot under 25% from three. They were 1-7 this season when shooting under 25% from three but make that 2-7 now.

Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins combined to go 1-for-15 from three. It was really a pair of threes by Otto Porter Jr. that got the fourth-quarter rally going for the Warriors. While Thompson has had a bad series, it is hard to imagine he and Poole, who has been great, will both disappoint so much again.

For the purposes of this prediction, let’s assume Morant is inactive for the rest of the series. While Tyus Jones was respectable with 19 points in place of Morant, that is a far cry from the 38.3 points per game Morant has averaged in this series.

Morant’s surprisingly great three-point shooting was also missed as the Grizzlies made just 9-of-35 threes in Game 4. Desmond Bane’s back injury must be giving him problems as he has failed to score 10 points in three of the four games this series after averaging 23.5 points per game against Minnesota in the first round. He cannot be trusted to deliver.

Brooks has been terrible, and while Jaren Jackson Jr. has been Memphis’ second-best player in this series, he only scored 21 points on 21 shots in Game 4. That type of inefficiency is not going to win.

While the Warriors may not find another easy win against this Memphis team, this feels like the end of the series with Golden State covering to eliminate the Grizzlies in five games.

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Under 218.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

This series has been a rollercoaster for scoring. Games 1 and 3 were the offensive ones with over 230 total points scored. Games 2 and 4 were the defensive struggles with the winning team barely cracking 100 points. That would put Game 5 on track to be a higher-scoring contest, which makes sense as both teams are unlikely to shoot under 42% again.

Game 4 aside, the Grizzlies still play efficient offense with Morant off the court as their Offensive Rating without him was still 113.7 in the regular season. The over hitting is likely more dependent on how Golden State performs than Memphis. While the Warriors will shoot better than Game 4, Klay Thompson has had a poor series outside of Game 3. If he doesn’t get going again, this feels like a good spot where the under will hit again as the Grizzlies try to rely on defense without Morant to keep this series alive. Let’s go with under 218.5 points.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Andrew Wiggins Over 5.5 Rebounds (-142 at FanDuel)

In searching for good value on a prop pick on FanDuel, let’s look at Andrew Wiggins’ rebounding. His line is only 5.5 rebounds, and he has had at least six rebounds in seven of the nine playoff games. He had a playoff-high 10 rebounds in Game 4, and he had eight or nine rebounds in Memphis in the first two games this series. If the Grizzlies keep bricking shots like they did in Game 4, then Wiggins should have plenty of opportunities to rack up boards. Either way, he’s been a safe pick for getting to at least six rebounds this postseason.

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