Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies NBA Playoff Odds & Betting Tips: Game 1

The Memphis Grizzlies are hosting the Golden State Warriors in Game 1 of a second-round series between the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds in the Western Conference. Memphis, a rare home underdog, has not been this far in the NBA playoffs since 2015 while the Warriors are looking for their sixth NBA Finals appearance in the Steph Curry-Steve Kerr era.

The Golden State Warriors won their first playoff series since 2019 by beating the Denver Nuggets in five games. Steph Curry led the way with 28.0 points per game, and the Warriors shot 51.5% from the field and averaged 118 points per game in the series (most by any team in the first round). The defense did a good job of holding down Nikola Jokic’s supporting cast, but the Warriors will face a tougher test from the Grizzlies.

Memphis eliminated the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 6 on Friday night after the team’s third double-digit rally of the series. Memphis overcame a 26-point deficit in Game 3. Superstar point guard Ja Morant struggled to shoot on the road, but he got plenty of help from Desmond Bane and company as this solid Memphis roster infamously went 20-2 in the first 22 games Morant missed this season.

Both teams have a uniquely talented point guard and defenses ranked in the top six in Defensive Rating. Memphis was 3-1 against Golden State in the regular season but neither Curry nor Morant played in the last meeting in late March, a 123-95 win by the surging Grizzlies. This has a chance to be the most compelling series in the second round.

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Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Game 1 Info

Date/Time: Sunday, May 1, 2022, 3:30 p.m. ET

TV: ABC

Location: FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

For all the information on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds Analysis

Despite being the road team and lower seed, the Warriors are a 2-point favorite in Game 1. This could reflect Golden State’s playoff experience and ease at which the offense operated in the first round. Meanwhile, the young Grizzlies had to grind out multiple comebacks against the Timberwolves to avoid a Game 7 or even an upset loss in the series.

The total for this game is 217.5 points. Memphis finished the regular season second in points per game (115.6) but both teams play good defense. The over was 1-2-1 in the four meetings between these teams, and they had two games end with 217 and 218 points. On the season, the over hits in 52.4% of Memphis games (ranked ninth) but only 45.9% for Golden State (ranked 25th).

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions

Golden State -2 (-110 at FanDuel)

No team has been better at covering the spread this season than Memphis, which is overall 55-32-1 ATS (63.2%) and 28-16 ATS (63.6%) in home games. In fact, both teams are the top two in covering the spread at home this season. The Warriors have been nothing special as a road favorite, going 11-13-2 ATS (45.8%). Memphis is also 7-3 ATS (70%) as a home underdog.

However, the Grizzlies were surprised by Minnesota’s talented scorers in a Game 1 upset at home. The Warriors are more than capable of doing the same with their great guard play and superior shooting. Klay Thompson only played in one of the four meetings with Memphis, and that happened to be his second game back from over two years out of action. The Warriors are 16-5 when Thompson scores at least 18 points this season and 6-2 when he exceeds 25 points. Jordan Poole has also been on a scoring tear for the Warriors late in the year, though he was held to 19 points in the last two games against Denver after averaging 28.7 points over the first three games.

The Grizzlies have a great three-point shooter in Desmond Bane, though Morant’s game is more about getting to the basket. Golden State did a respectable job against him this year, and the Grizzlies were minus-10 on the scoreboard with Morant in the game in three meetings (a minus in each game).

The Warriors are not as likely to blow double-digit leads the way the Timberwolves kept doing to these Grizzlies. Look for the rested, experienced Warriors to play well in this opening game as history repeats itself with the Grizzlies dropping Game 1 at home.

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Over 219.5 Points (-115 at BetMGM)

The Warriors scored at least 118 points in each of the first four games of the Denver series. Things fell off considerably in the 102-98 clincher in Game 5, but there is plenty of firepower here for the Warriors to put up a solid scoring number. Again, there were many games this season where the Warriors did not have Curry, Thompson, and Poole all together. These three guards are going to be crucial to their success this postseason, and it’s a different matchup than the Timberwolves, who relied on a center with big-game issues (Karl-Anthony Towns) and D’Angelo Russell is an unreliable guard.

The Grizzlies allowed 130 points in Game 1 to Minnesota. Not going to predict that happens again, but this is certainly a matchup where both teams could get to 110, allowing the over to hit. But it likely is going to be a final that is within a few points of the oddsmakers’ line. Let’s go with the over in Game 1.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Jordan Poole Over 2.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made (-102 at FanDuel)

For a prop pick on FanDuel, we like Jordan Poole to get back on track and hit his over in three-point field goals (2.5). Poole made 13 threes in the first three games of the Denver series before only hitting one in each of the last two games. When he last played the Grizzlies in late March, he scored 25 points and was 3-for-6 from three. Poole is shooting 42.6% from three in his last 20 games with an average of 4.2 makes per game.

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