Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks NBA Playoff Betting Tips & Predictions: Game 3

The Golden State Warriors held home court to take a 2-0 series lead against the Dallas Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. But can the Warriors take a commanding 3-0 lead with a win on the road where Dallas has been so good in these NBA playoffs?

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Top Two Picks

Dallas -2 @ -110

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Under 218.5 Points @ -110

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In Game 2, the Mavericks came out on fire with 15 made threes in the first half and a lead as large as 19 points. But as history has shown, a double-digit lead in Golden State means little if you cannot sustain your hot shooting or slow down the Warriors. Golden State had one of its usual third-quarter dominations with a 25-13 edge and took its first lead of the game on the first shot of the fourth quarter.

With Luka Doncic and Steph Curry on the bench to start the fourth quarter, Golden State went on a 14-7 run that proved crucial. Dallas was never able to get closer than five points on the way to a 126-117 loss.

The Warriors made most of their comeback without Draymond Green, who fouled out after a night of foul trouble. Jordan Poole gave another huge lift off the bench with 23 points and was a plus-26 for the game. Center Kevon Looney had never scored more than 14 points in any game this season, but he impressed with 21 points and 12 rebounds.

While Doncic did his part with 42 points after that awful Game 1, it was not enough as the Dallas offense went cold from three in the second half. After shooting a prolific 15-of-27 (55.6%) from three in the first half, the Mavericks were 6-of-18 (33.3%) from three in the second half, including a 2-for-13 stretch in the third quarter when the momentum moved to the Warriors.

For more analysis on the Conference Finals, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Info

Date/Time: Sunday, May 22, 2022, 9:00 p.m. ET


Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

For more on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds Analysis

With the series shifting to Dallas, the Mavericks are a 2-point home favorite for Game 3. Dallas is 28-17-2 ATS at home this year, the second-best record in the league including playoff games. The Warriors are 8-8 ATS as a road underdog this season. Dallas is 5-1 (ATS and SU) this postseason, and the only loss was Game 1 against Utah without Luka Doncic. Golden State is 1-4 ATS on the road this postseason, losing its last road game by 39 points in Memphis. The Warriors are also 0-2 in Dallas this season, including a January loss where they scored a season-low 82 points.

The total for this game is 218.5 points. Both the Warriors (25th) and Mavericks (30th; last) rank in the bottom six teams in the league in the over hitting. The Mavericks are the slowest-paced offense in the league, which has a big impact on the under hitting 61% of the time in their games.

Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks Predictions

Dallas -2 (-110 at FanDuel)

Dallas has been a resilient team all season. Not only did the Mavericks come back from a 2-0 deficit against Phoenix in the semifinals, but Dallas is an NBA-best 26-10 ATS after a loss this season, the only team over 70%.

It looked like this was happening again in Game 2 with Dallas up 19 points in Golden State, but the Warriors are a different beast at home. The Mavericks lived and died by the three in Game 2, and head coach Jason Kidd admitted as much after the game. “And we died in the third quarter by shooting that many 3s and coming up with only two,” Kidd said.

Dallas has fallen in love with the three this postseason, and it attempts one on over 50% of its shots. This is a strategy that has never led a team to the NBA Finals, and you can see the volatile nature in relying on that with the way Dallas dominated the first half and was dominated in the second half when the threes stopped going in.

Meanwhile, the Warriors have actively avoided taking many threes against Dallas this season. Golden State has eight games with no more than 30 threes attempted and half of them are against the Mavericks. In fact, Golden State has not attempted 30 threes in either game of this series, the first time since February 2021 that Golden State had consecutive games without taking 30 threes.

Why rely on the three when Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole have been off, and when your offense is getting so many easy layups and dunks? Golden State has made 46-of-82 field goals in both games this series. Yes, the exact same numbers. Those easier shots are what the Mavericks are missing out on, and it’s up to Kidd and his coaching staff to get more out of the offense than just threes.

Fortunately, the Mavericks have the best Defensive Rating (102.4) in home games this postseason. Golden State’s Offensive Rating declines by 11.1 points on the road compared to home this postseason. The Mavericks are going to need a big defensive effort in this one.

Dallas has not had a three-game losing streak since early December. With the season essentially on the line, look for the Mavericks to find more offensive balance and force the Warriors to shoot worse on the road as they get their first win in this series.

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Under 218.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

Golden State’s last 10 playoff games have all finished more than 10 points above or below the projected total, and the over and under have usually alternated from game to game. Game 2 was well over with 243 points, so we could easily be looking at an under here. It helps that the over only hits in 39% of Dallas games, the lowest rate in the NBA this season.

In games where Dallas is a home favorite, the over is 9-22-1 (29.0%), the second-lowest rate in the league. Let’s count on Game 3 being more of an offensive grind than a three-point shooting contest, allowing the under to hit as the Mavericks look to get a win in this series.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Luka Doncic Over 7.5 Assists (-140 at FanDuel)

For a prop pick on FanDuel with good value, let’s look at Luka Doncic’s assists. A theme for this game should be getting his teammates involved at home so he isn’t left needing to score 40-plus points again. Doncic already had eight assists in Game 2, and he’s had at least eight assists in both home games against the Warriors this season. He’s also had at least eight assists in three of his four home playoff games. This should be an easy bar for him to clear in Game 3.

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For more daily NBA parlay picks, see here.

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