Falcons vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 16 Predictions

Falcons vs. Ravens Week 16 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Baltimore Ravens (9-5) have lost control of the AFC North to Cincinnati after losing to the Browns 13-3 last week. It was the worst game the Ravens played all year with way too many mistakes from the quarterback position and a shockingly bad day by Justin Tucker and the kicking unit.

The Atlanta Falcons (5-9) gave rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder his first start, and it was far from encouraging. He completed 13-of-26 passes for 97 yards and took four sacks. He found Drake London a decent amount, but no other receiver was able to contribute. London also fumbled in the final minutes, denying Ridder a chance at a memorable moment in his first game. The Saints only won 21-18 despite Ridder’s modest contributions to the offense.

The Ravens will be happy to get a dome team in Baltimore with a rookie quarterback, but the Falcons can run the football. They had a season-high 231 yards on the ground Sunday, and they have gone over 100 yards in every game but one this year. Ridder won’t have to do a lot.

Baltimore also is not getting Lamar Jackson back. Tyler Huntley will once again start, but the Ravens are flopping on offense with 29 points in the three games since Jackson’s injury. This feels like another low-scoring game on the way.

The NFL Week 16 odds have the Ravens as a 6.5-point home favorite with a total of 35.5 points.

Players to watch in the Falcons vs. Ravens game

Atlanta Falcons

Tyler Allgeier: Cordarrelle Patterson has twice the touchdowns and much more name recognition in the Atlanta backfield, but fifth-round rookie Tyler Allgeier is the player who leads the Falcons in rushing yards (743) this season. He exploded for a season-best 139 yards and a touchdown in New Orleans last week. If he can start producing like that, then the Falcons won’t need to throw the ball much with their rookie quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens

J.K. Dobbins: He has been incredible the last two weeks in his return from injury with over 120 rushing yards in consecutive games. Dobbins still has to share the backfield touches, but he has been very productive these last two games. Atlanta is a below-average run defense, and we know the Ravens are going to lean on the run with Jackson still out. Dobbins could be in store for a third big game in a row.

Falcons vs. Ravens prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Falcons vs. Ravens game

We have two NFL Week 16 predictions for this matchup of non-conference opponents.

Falcons vs. Ravens Point Spread Pick: Falcons +6.5 (-110)

The Falcons vs. Ravens spread opened with the Ravens as a 6.5-point home favorite. The line had gone up to 7 points but is still settling around 6.5 going into the weekend. Teasing it at Falcons +7 would probably be the safest pick.

As much as a rookie quarterback against the Baltimore defense sounds tempting, the Ravens still have to deal with their own passing limitations. One of the best ways to beat Atlanta this year was to shred them through the air, but that is not how the Ravens operate.

Both teams are going to want to run the ball, but it is hard to say the Ravens have the advantage there without Jackson’s talents. Huntley can run too, but he hasn’t done a lot of it this year, and he’s already left a game in Pittsburgh with a concussion. Jackson’s scrambles on third-and-long are the rare kind of play only a few in the league can make. The Ravens were also 0-for-3 on fourth down last week, so seizing the moments has been hard without Jackson available.

There’s also the fact that the Ravens have had a really hard time winning any game by a comfortable margin the last two years. We know all about the blown leads of 10-plus points in 2022, but the Ravens also lost five super close games down the stretch last year to miss the playoffs.

Since 2021, the Ravens are only 2-15 ATS when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, a range which this game would fall under. The Falcons were only blown out once all year against the Bengals (35-17). Seven of Atlanta’s nine losses have been by fewer than seven points. Let’s count on that to continue here as the Falcons get a cover for your NFL bet of the week.

You should check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

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Ravens Prop: J.K. Dobbins Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-121)

Dobbins only has 63 carries this season, but six of them have already gone for over 14.5 yards. He had a 44-yard run against the Steelers and three big runs against the Browns last week.

Dobbins may not look quite as explosive as he did before his injury, but he is still productive in this offense. He has averaged 8.75 yards per rush over the last two weeks since returning from injury.

The Falcons allow about one explosive run per game this season, but if anyone is going to hit it big for the Ravens in this game, it is Dobbins. With the weather not being great and the quarterback situation, expect plenty of rushing opportunities here.

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Frequently asked questions about the Falcons vs. Ravens game in Week 16

The game is being played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland

Since 2008, John Harbaugh’s Ravens are 77-85-5 ATS (47.5%) as a favorite, the 16th-best record in that time. But in 2022, the Ravens are just 3-7 ATS (30%) as a favorite and 0-5 ATS as a home favorite. Since 2021, the Ravens are 2-9 ATS as a home favorite.

You can find them at our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.