Falcons vs. Panthers Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 10 Predictions

Falcons vs. Panthers Week 10 matchup preview and current betting lines

You might not expect much in a Thursday night matchup between the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) and Carolina Panthers (2-7), but these two just played arguably the best game of the year in Week 8. If you ignored the teams involved and just focused on the game script, it was as compelling as any game this season, and the stakes in the rematch are still high with Atlanta in position to lead the NFC South with a win here.

But in Week 8, no one expected a 37-34 overtime shootout between these teams:

• Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota passed for a season-high 253 yards and three touchdowns.
• Carolina quarterback P.J. Walker had the first 300-yard passing game of his career with 317 yards.
• Carolina running back D’Onta Foreman had 118 rushing yards and three touchdowns in just the second game since the team traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers.
• J. Moore had 152 yards, the second-highest game of his career, and caught a 62-yard touchdown with 12 seconds left that should have won the game.
• Carolina kicker Eddy Pineiro missed the go-ahead extra point from 15 yards further away than usual because of an excessive celebration penalty on Moore on the touchdown.
• After Mariota threw an interception in overtime, Pineiro also missed a 32-yard field goal to win the game.
• The Falcons drove for Younghoe Koo’s 41-yard game-winning field goal.

What a game. What can the teams do for an encore after both lost on Sunday? The Panthers were destroyed 42-21 in Cincinnati and the Falcons lost a close one, 20-17 to the Chargers at home.

The NFL Week 10 odds have the Falcons as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 44.5 points. Can the Falcons complete the sweep, or does Carolina have some more offensive firepower ready on a short week?

Players to watch in the Falcons vs. Panthers game

Atlanta Falcons

Cordarrelle Patterson: He returned from injury for the first time since Week 4 and added two touchdowns against the Chargers. Patterson only finished with 44 yards on 13 carries, but he is the team’s best runner without question. He also scored a touchdown in both meetings last season with Carolina.

Carolina Panthers

D.J. Moore: If there is any receiver that is going to take advantage of the Atlanta secondary, it is D.J. Moore. He averages 18.6 yards per catch against the Falcons in his career compared to 14.2 yards per catch against the rest of the NFL. He is the big-play threat from the receiving position in this game.

Our Best NFL Bets for the Falcons vs. Panthers game

We have two NFL Week 10 predictions for this Thursday night matchup between NFC South rivals.

Falcons vs. Panthers Point Spread Pick: Falcons -3 (-110)

The Falcons vs. Panthers spread opened with the Falcons as a 1.5-point road favorite before moving to 3-point favorites. The Panthers are sticking with Walker at quarterback despite his 0.0 passer rating that led to Baker Mayfield seeing his first action since his injury against the 49ers.

Both teams struggle defending the pass, but we also know both don’t prefer to throw the ball even if they did have a season-high passing game in the Week 8 meeting. Basically, I am going to count on the quarterback who was just benched against the Bengals not repeating what he did last time, which included a miracle touchdown pass to Moore in a game he also threw a pick-six in.

As for Carolina’s newfound running game with Foreman, he rushed seven times for 23 yards against the Bengals. So much for him doing what Nick Chubb did to that defense in a game that got out of hand almost immediately with the Bengals destroying Carolina before halftime.

The Falcons have Patterson back and were light in using him on Sunday with this division game to come on a short week. Look for him to take on a bigger role and give this Atlanta roster that is better than Carolina’s an edge to pull out the cover and sweep to get to 5-5 for your NFL bet of the week.

Remember to check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

Total: Under 44.5 Points (-110)

Division rematches can be very unpredictable but going opposite of what happened last time feels like the smart bet most of the time. Neither of these teams are reliable, offensive juggernauts. The 37-34 game was so absurdly high scoring, and yet the Falcons just played the Chargers in a 20-17 game. The Panthers haven’t scored more than 24 points in any other game this year but the Atlanta one, which looks like such an outlier.

Panthers-Falcons had 71 combined points in a game with an over/under of 41 points, making it one of five games this season that went at least 30 points above its Vegas total. Look for some regression in this rematch with the public expecting another shootout.

Also, have you noticed these night games have been absurdly low scoring this NFL season? Of the 28 prime-time games in 2022, only 10 of them had at least 45 combined points. Look how that stacks up to recent years in night games through Week 9:

• 2022: 10-of-28 games with 45-plus points (35.7%)
• 2021: 17-of-27 games with 45-plus points (63.0%)
• 2020: 17-of-29 games with 45-plus points (58.6%)

It would have been amazing if the Week 8 game was the one we got on Thursday night, but I am banking on this one to be more of a dud. At best, it will be close and competitive, but that also means a low-scoring game won in the 23-17 range by the Falcons.