Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 17 Predictions

Dolphins vs. Patriots Week 17 matchup preview and current betting lines

Thanks to a four-game losing streak, the Miami Dolphins (8-7) are on shaky ground for the playoffs that once looked like a lock this year. The New England Patriots (7-8) are still hanging around despite literally fumbling the game away the last two weeks to the Raiders and Bengals.

After another concussion for Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater is going to get the start for Miami in a crucial game. Bridgewater’s resume with Miami this year includes a decent effort off the bench when Tua was concussed in Cincinnati until he threw a late pick, a start against the Jets he left after one pass after his own concussion worry, and a 329-yard effort off the bench against the Vikings in a loss.

Bridgewater is averaging 8.7 yards per attempt on 60 throws this season. He just needs to avoid the big mistakes, which we know the Patriots capitalize well on under Bill Belichick.

It sounds like a huge deal to lose Tua for this matchup when he is 4-0 against the Patriots, but we’ll look at why that may not be the case.

The NFL Week 17 odds have the Patriots as a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 40.5 points.

Players to watch in the Dolphins vs. Patriots game

Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle: If Belichick tries to take away Tyreek Hill from this offense, then Jaylen Waddle is arguably the best No. 2 receiver in the NFL. He has gone over 100 yards with a touchdown in each of his last two games. He had a touchdown in Week 1 against the Patriots, and it was his third game in a row with a receiving touchdown against New England. Waddle will be ready for a big game here.

New England Patriots

Matt Judon: He still has a shot to lead the NFL in sacks as he has 15.5 this year, a career high after setting his career high with 12.5 sacks in 2021. Bridgewater is known for checking the ball down, but he does not necessarily get rid of the ball the fastest. His 9.1% sack rate this year would be the highest of his career. He could give the Patriots a strip-sack in this game if he is not careful.

Dolphins vs. Patriots prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Dolphins vs. Patriots game

We have two NFL Week 17 predictions for this important AFC East rematch.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Point Spread Pick: Dolphins +2.5 (-110)

The Dolphins vs. Patriots spread opened with the Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite before switching around entirely to the Patriots as a 2.5-point favorite due to the surprising Tua news on Monday after he finished Sunday’s game.

Is Tua really worth that kind of point swing? For one, he has not played well in three of the four games during this losing streak. The other fact is quarterback play has not largely determined these recent games against the Dolphins and Patriots since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay.

  • Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patriots: 4-0 record, 18 offensive points per game, 3 TD, 2 INT, 6.72 YPA, 88.7 PR, 3 rushing TD
  • Mac Jones vs. Dolphins: 0-3 record, 15.7 offensive points per game, 3 TD, 2 INT, 7.63 YPA, 94.5 PR, 2 lost fumbles

The problem has been Jones has given the Miami defense a touchdown return in each of the last two meetings, including a fumble return in Week 1 this year. Miami’s offense only scored 13 points in Week 1. Do you know how many quarterbacks wish they could be 4-0 against Belichick when only averaging 18 points per game on offense?

Tua avoided the big mistakes in these games, and that’s what Bridgewater will have to repeat. But to think he needs to have a huge game to beat this terrible New England offense is just incorrect.

When Mike McDaniels took over for Todd Bowles in Miami this year, one move he made was to retain defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, who coached under Belichick in New England from 2006-2018. Boyer knows the Patriots well and has called good games against them. This version is the weakest New England offense yet, so he should have another good game and limit what Bridgewater needs to score to win.

The Dolphins have been better than the Patriots all season. Trust them to not let this thing slip away and cover on the road for your NFL bet of the week.

Be sure to visit our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

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Dolphins Prop: Tyreek Hill Over 79.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

The Dolphins are as good as any team in the league at getting both their wide receivers to have huge games in the same game this season. Hill has had past success against the Patriots, with 133 and 142 yards in his first two meetings, and he had 94 yards in Week 1 in his first game as a member of the Dolphins.

In the two games where Bridgewater was the primary quarterback this season, he had no problem locking onto Hill in those games. Hill finished with 160 and 177 yards in those games.

He only needs 80 to hit his over in this matchup and given the way the Dolphins do not distribute the ball a ton outside of Hill and Waddle, he should be able to get it. Only five teams have held Hill under 80 yards this year.

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Frequently asked questions about the Dolphins vs. Patriots game in Week 17

The game is being played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.

Since 2020, the Patriots are 8-9 SU and 8-9 ATS in division games as the division has greatly improved its coaching and quarterback play, diminishing the historical edges the Patriots had for two decades.

Teddy Bridgewater is 33-32 as a starter in his NFL career. Bridgewater is 25-6 when his team allows fewer than 20 points in his starts.

You will find more at our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.