Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors NBA Playoff Odds & Predictions: Game 5

The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the NBA’s Western Conference Finals this Thursday evening. Golden State still leads the series 3-1, but the Mavericks avoided the sweep with an impressive 119-109 win in Game 4. Can the Mavericks get the series back to Dallas for Game 6?

In Game 4, the Dallas roof was leaking from rain, and the desperate Mavericks were raining threes. A short weather delay did not dampen the Mavericks’ spirits as they hit 11 threes in the first half and nine more in the second half for their best shooting performance of the series.

Luka Doncic was one assist shy of a 30-point triple-double, but he has had better shooting games in this series. Doncic was just 3-for-11 from three. The story of the night was Dallas’ supporting cast:

• Reggie Bullock shook off his scoreless Game 3 with six threes and 18 points in Game 4.
• Dorian Finney-Smith was averaging 6.8 points per game since he made eight threes against Phoenix in Game 4, but he stepped up with 23 points as he apparently loves Game 4.
• Spencer Dinwiddie dished out eight assists and made two threes.
• Maxi Kleber made two threes after he was 1-for-11 on wide-open threes to begin this series.
• Jalen Brunson (15 points) was Doncic’s third teammate to score at least 15 points while Steph Curry had just one other teammate (Jonathan Kuminga) score that much for the Warriors.

Even after the Golden State bench, led by Kuminga’s 17 points, cut a 29-point deficit down to eight, the Mavericks made sure it never got closer and closed out the game. Now the Mavericks have the difficult task of taking their strategy on the road, but Dallas did lead by 19 points in Game 2 before losing that one.

With the NBA’s Conference Finals nearing the finish line, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Game 5 Info

Date/Time: Thursday, May 26, 2022, 9:00 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, California

For all the details on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Odds Analysis

The Warriors are a 7-point home favorite in Game 5, the largest spread yet in this series. All eight games between these teams this season have been decided by more than five points, and the Mavericks lost each of the first three playoff games by at least nine points. But on the season, Dallas is 7-1 ATS as an underdog of at least 6.5 points.

All four games in this series have been decided by at least nine points. Every NBA Conference Finals since 1972 has had at least one game decided by fewer than nine points. The only time it never happened was in 1971, the first year of the Western Conference Finals.

The total for this game is 215.5 points. The over has hit in a league-low 39.2% of Dallas games this season, the only team under 40%. Golden State has the sixth-lowest over rate at 46.3% and the third-lowest over rate in home games (40.4%).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

Dallas +7 (-110 at FanDuel)

This series continues to be a fascinating difference in styles. The Warriors have five games this season with fewer than 30 attempted threes, and four of them are against Dallas. Meanwhile, the Dallas strategy in this series has been clear: shoot the three. The Mavericks are the second team in NBA history to shoot at least 43 threes in four consecutive playoff games. The difference between Game 2 and Game 4 was that the Mavericks did not go ice cold in the second half and blow a big lead.

Dallas has been getting open threes all series, but it was in Game 4 where they delivered with the supporting cast coming through for Doncic. According to NBA.com, this is how Dallas has shot on wide-open threes in this series:

• Game 1: 8-for-28 (28.6%)
• Game 2: 11-for-24 (45.8%)
• Game 3: 8-for-28 (28.6%)
• Game 4: 12-for-21 (57.1%)

By comparison, the Warriors were 2-for-12 on wide-open threes in Game 4, their worst game this series. There likely will be regression in Game 5, but the Mavericks can get better shooting out of their stud, Doncic, who has been prolific when facing elimination in his career. While Bullock and Finney-Smith may cool down for Game 5, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie have room for improvement to pick up the slack.

The other key difference in Game 4 was that the Mavericks won the rebound battle, 45-42, after losing it by at least 13 boards in the first three games. The Warriors are going to have to get back to rebounding better, especially on the offensive glass with Kevon Looney.

The Warriors are also still looking to get Klay Thompson going as he has not scored 20 points in any game this series. Andrew Wiggins was a star in Game 3 but was quiet in Game 4. Steph Curry had just 20 points in Game 4 after a stellar start to the series. The starters did not contribute to the comeback attempt in the fourth quarter.

The Mavericks are going to live or die by the three. The Warriors can get easier offense than that, but they’ll need better effort than they showed in Game 4 against a team that was playing for its season. However, in NBA playoff series where a team returns home for Game 5 with a 3-1 lead after failing to get the sweep, that team is 36-12 in Game 5. So, only 25% of these series get to a Game 6.

We had the stat earlier where every NBA Conference Finals but the first one since 1971 has had a game decided by fewer than eight points. We are long overdue for a legitimate close finish in this series. Dallas may very well go down in defeat, but let’s take the underdog with the points for this one.

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Over 215.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

In the semifinals against Memphis, the Warriors alternated between the over and under for all six games that series, even with the Ja Morant injury changing that number significantly. It is happening again in this series with the under and over alternating in all four games despite the total staying steady in the range of 216-to-217 points.

Game 4 was 12 points over the projected total, but that hardly guarantees that Game 5 will fall under. The Warriors had an off night in Game 4 and can shoot much better at home.

The Mavericks have not been on such an over/under rollercoaster like the Warriors this postseason. They’ve had streaks of the under hitting three times in a row against Utah and four times in a row against Phoenix. The under is so successful in Dallas games because the team plays at the slowest tempo in the league. That has not changed in this series, and the Warriors have finished with 81-to-84 field goal attempts in all four games against Dallas.

But look for Doncic and Curry to score big in this game and lead a charge towards another over.

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Bonus Player Prop Pick: Klay Thompson Over 2.5 Made Threes (-146 at FanDuel)

For a prop pick on FanDuel, look at Klay Thompson’s three-point field goals. His betting line has usually been 3.5 threes, but after making one three in Game 4 and shooting 29.2% from three in this series, that line has dropped to 2.5. This just presents a good opportunity for a bounce-back game at home as Thompson is still seeking his first 20-point game in this series. Thompson shoots the three 2.5 percentage points higher at home this season, and his career split is 2.4 percentage points higher at home. Trust Thompson to deliver in front of the home crowd in Game 5 by taking his over in threes.

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