The Golden State Warriors host the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 of the NBA’s Western Conference Finals this Wednesday evening. The Mavericks and Warriors ousted the top-seeded Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies in stunning fashion in the semifinals. This is the sixth Western Conference Finals for the Warriors in the Steph Curry era and the first for the Mavericks since the 2011 championship season.
Golden State -5 @ -112
Over 214.5 Points @ -110
The Golden State Warriors took advantage of an injury to Ja Morant to beat the Memphis Grizzlies in six games. Golden State shook off an embarrassing 39-point loss in Game 5 to win Game 6 at home behind a stunning 23-7 run to end what was a close game for three-and-a-half quarters.
But in typical Golden State fashion, the parade of threes overwhelmed the Grizzlies and the Warriors won 110-96. In the process, the Warriors showed off their unique abilities with a historic feat in Game 6, becoming the first team in NBA history to hit 20 threes and collect 70 rebounds in a single game. The 25 offensive rebounds are tied for the most in a playoff game by any NBA team since 1995.
Not to be outdone, the Dallas Mavericks came back from a 2-0 series deficit against a Phoenix Suns team that was the best in the league all year. Even after trailing the series 3-2, the Mavericks won the final two games by 60 points, including a Game 7 road win that can make a case for the most shocking in NBA history after the home team won each of the series’ first six games.
Home teams win Game 7 over 75% of the time in the NBA, but the Mavericks led wire-to-wire and by as many as 46 points before winning 123-90. Luka Doncic had as many points at halftime (27) as the entire Phoenix team. The Mavericks shot 56.8% from the field despite only having 14 assists. No other team in the NBA shot better than 49% with fewer than 15 assists in a game this season. But the three-point shots continued to fall for Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie while the Suns were embarrassingly poor on the offensive end.
This sets up a Western Conference Finals between the No. 4 Mavericks and No. 3 Warriors. It is the first time since 2011, the year Dallas won the championship, that the Western Conference Finals does not feature a top two seed.
With the NBA’s Conference Finals getting under way, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Game 1 Info
Date/Time: Wednesday, May 18, 2022, 9:00 p.m. ET
Location: Chase Center, San Francisco, California
For all the information on where you can watch this game, see our streaming guide.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Odds Analysis
The Warriors are a 5-point home favorite in Game 1. All four meetings between these teams this season were decided by more than five points, though the Mavericks won three out of four. Dallas (62.2%) and Golden State (60.0%) are two of the three teams in the NBA to cover the spread in at least 60% of their home games this season. Dallas is 9-4 ATS this postseason while Golden State is 5-6 ATS.
The total for this game is 214.5 points. The over has hit in a league-low 38.7% of Dallas games this season, the only team under 40%. Golden State has the sixth-lowest over rate at 46.2% and the third-lowest home over rate (40%). Two of the meetings between these teams this season went over 214.5 points while the other two did not. In Golden State games with a total under 215 points, the over is 4-8.
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions
Golden State -5 (-112 at FanDuel)
Dallas has had legitimate success in going 3-1 against the Warriors this season, though it is worth pointing out that in none of those games did the Warriors have Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green together like they are now. This has been the core trio that has led the team to its sixth Western Conference Finals appearance.
The Warriors are 16-1 this season when they shoot at least 52% from the field, but that one loss was the last meeting in Dallas in March. Doncic was an assist shy of a 41-point triple-double that day.
In the first meeting in January in Dallas, the Warriors scored a season-low 82 points and attempted a season-low 28 threes. They also attempted just 30 threes in the other game in Dallas, so the Warriors were not aggressive on the road either time. Golden State also has not been able to get to the free throw line for more than 20 attempts in any of the four games against Dallas, a team that is also much better than the Warriors at not turning the ball over this season.
But the Warriors have done some impressive things against Dallas as well. The Warriors twice held Dallas under 38% shooting, something that’s only happened four other times this season. The Warriors are also one of only two teams to score 130 points on the Mavericks this year.
Dallas is relying heavily on the three-point shot this postseason. A league-high 49.8% of Dallas’ field goal attempts and 43.9% of its points this postseason are from three. Doncic usually can get his, but the Dallas gameplan largely revolves around one or two of Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock, or Spencer Dinwiddie having a hot hand. It is not the greatest supporting cast, and it will have to outdo the likes of Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins as the new additions to the old reliable core in Golden State.
The other good news for Warriors is the return of head coach Steve Kerr from the COVID protocol. He missed the last three games of the Memphis series, and the offense was out of sorts without him.
The Mavericks have one of the best players in the world who should push this series to six or seven games, but for Game 1, let’s go with the home team to deliver and get the cover. The Warriors are not going to implode like Phoenix did in Game 7.Get the Fanduel NBA Playoffs Promos >
Over 214.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)
Dallas plays at the slowest pace in the league, so it is not that surprising to see the Mavericks lead the NBA in games where the under hits. It is a little surprising to see the Warriors near the bottom in overs hitting, but they play at an average pace and did not get many full games with the core trio of Curry, Thompson, and Green together.
The under is very tempting in a matchup between the No. 2 and No. 3 teams in points allowed per game. But Game 1 usually feels like a good spot for an over as the teams will make defensive adjustments as the series wears on. The Warriors are always more threatening to score at home while the Mavericks have had their three highest-scoring playoff games this year come on the road. With Dallas having Doncic and firing away on threes this postseason, let’s go with the over in Game 1.Bet With BetMGM >
Bonus Player Prop Pick: Steph Curry Over 5.5 Assists (-130 at FanDuel)
For a prop pick on FanDuel, look at the advanced data from NBA.com on Curry’s four games against Dallas this year. He played the role of passer with 31 assists and 50 potential assists, a higher figure than his averages in the regular season against Denver and Memphis. Curry had assist totals of five, seven, nine, and 10 against the Mavericks. His line is only 5.5 assists in this game, and that is a mark he has cleared in 43 out of 75 games (57.3%) this season, including the playoffs.Get the Fanduel NBA Playoffs Promos >
For more daily NBA parlay picks, see here.
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