Minnesota to cover (+3) vs Dallas Alternate Spread
Justin Jefferson over 96.5 rec yards Player Prop
By Lawrence Smelser
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings Week 11 matchup preview and current betting lines
Dallas will head to U.S. Bank Stadium to face off against one of the top-ranked teams in the NFC — Minnesota. Kickoff is slated for 4:25 ET and the contest can be viewed on Fox.
At 8-1, the Vikings are tied for the best record in the NFL with Philadelphia. Last week, Kevin O’Connell’s team defeated a strong Bills team, 33-30, in the game of the season thus far.
The contest featured everything, including a one-handed catch on 4th and 18 by Justin Jefferson to keep the game alive. There was also a goal line fumble by the Bills that led to a Vikings touchdown.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON CATCH OF THE CENTURY. pic.twitter.com/Cos6v0yPIC
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) November 13, 2022
Greg Joseph kicked a 33-yard field goal in overtime to hand Minnesota the lead with 3:42 remaining. Josh Allen marched the Bills down the field into the red zone but was picked off at the 20-yard-line by Patrick Peterson, which sealed the victory for the purple and white.
Minnesota and Philly will now battle for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC which provides a first-round bye during the playoffs. The Eagles hold the tiebreaker since they won head to head in week 2, 24-7.
The week 2 loss to the Eagles is the last time the Vikings were defeated. They are currently on a 7-game winning streak (longest in the NFL).
The Cowboys are coming off an overtime loss of their own (31-28 to Green Bay). Dallas blew a 14-point fourth quarter lead for the first time in its history (previously 195-0).
Oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook are favoring the Cowboys by 1.5 points. On the moneyline, Dallas is -125 and Minnesota is +125. The public has put 52% of their bets on the Vikings to cover and 88% of the money is on Dallas to win straight up.
Players to watch in the Cowboys vs. Vikings contest
Dak Prescott: Dallas’ quarterback has played three healthy games this season (four total) and is 2-2 as a starter. Prescott’s two wins came against mediocre opposition in Detroit and Chicago. The 29-year-old will look to bounce back after throwing two picks last week against Green Bay. Prescott has thrown six touchdowns and four picks this season.
TJ Hockenson: The Vikings traded a second and third-round pick for the dynamic tight end to provide Kirk Cousins with another weapon. Since he first suited up in a Minnesota uniform two weeks ago, Hockenson has been targeted 19 times and has 16 receptions for 115 yards. The 2019 No. 8 overall pick will try and find the end zone for the first time as a Viking this Sunday. Hockenson has three touchdowns this season with Detroit.
Our NFL bet of the week for the Cowboys vs. Vikings
ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.
Dallas vs. Minnesota Alternate Spread: Minnesota +3 @ -142 (DraftKings)
Kirk Cousins and the Vikings certainly have haters around the league. Some analysts are labeling them the “worst 8-1 team in the league” and have said luck has played a large role in the team’s success.
That notion is completely false. Over the last four games, they’ve beaten a strong Dolphins team and the current betting favorite to win the Super Bowl (Buffalo).
Minnesota doesn’t pop out on the stats sheet in terms of offense or defense, but O’Connell has found ways to win in close games. Every win during the seven-game streak has come by one-score or less.
On offense the Vikings rank eight in points per game (25.1) and 11th in yards per game (355.8). On the other side of the ball, they showcase the definition of a “bend don’t break” defense. The unit is 29th in total defense (surrendering 381.2 YPG) but is limiting opponents to 21.2 points per contest (14th).
Dallas boasts a scary defensive front led by linebacker Micah Parsons. The unit leads the league in sacks (35) and is fifth in scoring defense (giving up just 18.2 PPG). The Cowboys are 12th in total defense (324.8 YPG). Dak Prescott and the offense are scoring 23.4 points per game (11th) and posting 331 yards per outing (20th).
The Vikings are 4-4 against the spread this season. They are 7-2 ATS against the Cowboys in their last nine home games. America’s team is 6-3 ATS in 2022-2023 and 3-10 ATS in its previous 13 games vs. Minnesota.
At ESTNN, we believe this game will come down to the wire. Our pick is take the Vikings to cover an alternate three-point spread. DraftKings is offering -142 odds for the bet.
Cowboys vs. Vikings odds: Justin Jefferson over 96.5 receiving yards @ -117 (Caesars)
Justin Jefferson has been on an absolute tear this season. The former LSU Tiger has racked up 69 receptions (4th) for 1,060 yards (2nd) and four touchdowns.
In the last six games, he’s shredded secondaries and has been a nightmare for opposing cornerbacks. The stats below show how well he’s played.
Justin Jefferson Stats (last six weeks)
@Buffalo: 10 rec for 193 yards
@Washington: 7 rec for 115 yards
Arizona: 6 rec for 98 yards
@Miami: 6 rec for 108 yards
Chicago: 12 rec for 154 yards
New Orleans: 10 rec for 147 yards
The Pro Bowler has eclipsed the 96.5 rec yards prop in all six contests. For the entire season, Jefferson is averaging 117.5 receiving yards per game.
Cousins is feeding his WR1 this season. Jefferson has 100 targets on the season with an average of 11.1 per game. The 23-year-old has beaten the receiving yards over number in 11 of his last 17 contests.
The 2020 first-round pick will face a Dallas secondary that allowed rookie Christian Watson to burn them for 108 yards and three touchdowns last week on just four receptions. Trevon Diggs is a Pro Bowl corner and a ball hawk, but he’s been notorious for allowing big plays and is by no means considered a lockdown corner.
Our selection is to take the over 96.5 receiving yards prop on Caesars. The Sportsbook is offering -117 odds for the selection.
If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 11, read our NFL player props page.
Frequently asked questions regarding Dallas vs. Minnesota in week 11
Troy Aikman is the last Dallas signal caller to appear in the big game. Aikman won three out of three Super Bowls in 1992, 1993 and 1995.
If you’re interested in seeing other game lines, read our NFL Odds for this week page for more information.
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