Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 11 Predictions

By Lawrence Smelser

Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans Week 11 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Commanders will travel to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET and FOX is broadcasting the matchup.

Washington (5-5) is on a heat streak and has won four of the last five games. Ron Rivera’s squad knocked off the last undefeated team, the 8-0 Eagles, 32-21 on primetime last Monday.

It appeared as if it might be a rough not on the road in Philadelphia after the Eagles opened up the scoring 7-0 off of a strip sack. The Commanders responded and went on to dominate the time of possession, (40:24-19:36) total yards (330-264) and first downs (25-18). 

The four wins (aside from over Philly) have come against Green Bay, Chicago and Indianapolis. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke started in three of those contests except against the Bears.

Houston (1-7-1) has the worst record in the league and is on pace for the No. 1 pick in the draft. Many analysts are speculating the organization will select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young (2021 Heisman Trophy winner).

Houston is on a four-game losing streak with losses at the hands of Las Vegas, Tennessee, Philadelphia and New York (Giants). The schedule will only get tougher as the team will face four teams with a winning record down the stretch.

Oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook are favoring the Commanders by three points. On the moneyline, Washington is -170 and Philadelphia is +140. The public has put 59% of their bets on the Commanders to cover and 86% of the money is on them to win straight up.

Players to watch in the Commanders vs. Texans contest

Washington

Terry McLaurin: The WR1 in Washington’s offense is on pace for a third-consecutive 1,000-yard season. The former Buckeye has recorded 46 receptions for 737 yards and two touchdowns. McLaurin’s 16 yards per catch is seventh-best in the league.

Houston

Nico Collins: The 2021 3rd-rounder has posted 23 receptions for 354 yards (sixth) and a touchdown. His 15.4 yards per catch is ninth-best in the NFL. The 6-foot-4, 215 pound outside receiver had 10 targets last week against the Giants and broke the plane for the first time this year.  

Our NFL bet of the week for the Commanders vs. Texans

ESTNN is providing bettors with two free selections for this game.

Washington vs. Texans Spread: Washington -3 @ -107

This matchup features two teams in very different situations. The Commanders sit at half a game back of the 49ers for the No. 7 seed in the NFC playoff picture while Houston is in dead last in the entire AFC.

Washington has finally found its identity and leader on offense, Heinicke. The Old Dominion product has won over the locker room hearts and is 3-1 as a starter this season compared to Carson Wentz (2-4). Heinicke has already won more games in two fewer starts. The one loss came narrowly 20-17, to the 8-1 Vikings.

The 29-year-old is now 10-9 as a starter in Washington. Since 2018, the Commanders have played 10 others who combined for a 19-37 record. On the team’s win on the way back from Philly, each player put their chain on Heinicke to have a little fun and celebrate.

Taylor Heinicke, drinking a Busch Light, is currently wearing every defensive player's chain on the flight home from Philly. pic.twitter.com/D8ByYg0hGg

— Chad Ryan (@ChadwikoTWW) November 15, 2022

“Riverboat” Ron named Heinicke the starting quarterback on Tuesday. He stated that he would discuss with the players which quarterback should start. Wentz is signed through 2024 and is making $28 million this season.

Five weeks ago, Rivera publicly called out Wentz for the team’s struggles. He was scrutinized by many for the move and eventually apologized. Now, the team has no QB controversy and is rolling. A win over Houston would move the team over .500 for the first time in 2022.

Heinicke has played better than the former No. 2 overall pick and sports a higher quarterback rating, passer rating, completion percentage and average yards per pass attempt. 

The 29-year-old has thrown for 840 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions this season. His quarterback rating of 47.2 would rank him at 21st in the league. Wentz’ 32.4 put him at third-worst in the NFL.

The Commanders rank in the middle of the pack statistically on defense. They are 11th in the league for total defense (surrendering 324 yards per game) and 15th in points allowed (21.3). Offensively, the unit has been putrid and is scoring just 19.1 points per game (24th) The total offense is putting up 324.1 YPG (25th). 

With Heinicke under center, the offense has looked better and is averaging 22.3 points per game. This would rank 16th among the 32 teams in the league. 

The Texans rank fourth and fifth-worst in terms of total (301.2 YPG) and scoring offense (16.6 PPG). They’re actually ranked worse at 30th for total defense allowing nearly 400 yards per game (394.7). Houston is allowing opponents to score 23 points per game (21st).

Houston has run successful plays on only 34.5% of pass attempts on their opponent’s side of the field in 2022 — 31st in the league. Washington has allowed positive plays on only 41.2% of pass attempts in their territory this year — third in the NFL.

The Commanders are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five games. They are also 5-1 ATS in their previous six matchups versus AFC South opposition. The Texans are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.

Washington is clearly better on both sides of the ball and will be bolstered by the return of dynamic defensive end Chase Young (missed the first nine weeks recovering from an ACL tear). Our pick at ESTNN is to take Washington to cover the 3-point spread (-107) on PointsBet sportsbook.

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Commanders vs. Texans odds: Dameon Pierce over 79.5 rushing yards @ -115

The Texans drafted their workhouse during the fourth round of last year’s draft. He’s answered the call so far this year. Pierce is fifth in the NFL with 772 rushing yards and third in attempts (165). The 22-year-old is averaging 4.7 yards per carry.

Below is Pierce’s game log for 2022-2023:

Week 1 vs. Indianapolis: 11 attempts for 33 yards
Week 2 at Denver: 15 attempts for 69 yards
Week 3 at Chicago: 20 attempts for 80 yards
Week 4 vs. Los Angeles (Chargers): 14 attempts for 131 yards
Week 5 at Jacksonville: 26 attempts for 99 yards
Week 6 BYE
Week 7 at Las Vegas: 20 attempts for 92 yards
Week 8 vs Tennessee: 15 attempts for 35 yards
Week 9 vs Philadelphia: 27 attempts for 139 yards
Week 10 at New York (Giants): 17 attempts for 94 yards

Pierce has gone over the 79.5 rushing yard mark in six of his last seven contests. Pierce is averaging 85.8 rushing yards per game despite barely playing in week 1.

Lovie Smith is going to put the ball in his workhorse’s hands no matter the game script. In the last five weeks, the Florida product is averaging 21 touches per outing.

Our pick is to take the over 79.5 rushing yards prop on BetMGM. The sportsbook is offering -115 odds for the bet.

If you’re interested in learning about more prop bets for week 11, read our NFL player props page.

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