Colts vs. Broncos Week 5 matchup preview and current betting lines
The NFL schedule makers knew what they were doing when they lined up a Week 5 prime-time game between the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos as the new teams for Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, two quarterbacks you would have had on a path to the Hall of Fame. They both may still get there, but the first four games of 2022 have been anything but a smashing success.
Safe to say we have been spoiled by how well things worked out quickly when past prolific quarterbacks changed teams, including Brett Favre (2009 Vikings), Peyton Manning (2012 Broncos), Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers), and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams).
Under Ryan and Wilson, the Colts and Broncos have been two of the most disappointing offenses this season, and look at how they stack up after four games compared to those four quarterbacks when they switched teams:
- 2009 Favre: 4-0 record, 29.5 PPG, 8 TD, 1 INT, 6.7 YPA, 104.6 passer rating
- 2012 Manning: 2-2 record, 28.5 PPG, 8 TD, 3 INT, 7.6 YPA, 96.9 passer rating
- 2020 Brady: 3-1 record, 30.0 PPG, 11 TD, 4 INT, 7.2 YPA, 99.4 passer rating
- 2021 Stafford: 3-1 record, 28.8 PPG, 11 TD, 2 INT, 9.1 YPA, 117.6 passer rating
- 2022 Ryan: 1-2-1 record, 14.3 PPG, 5 TD, 5 INT, 7.3 YPA, 85.0 passer rating
- 2022 Wilson: 2-2 record, 16.5 PPG, 4 TD, 1 INT, 7.5 YPA, 91.1 passer rating
The lack of scoring production for the Colts and Broncos is what has been stunning so far. But the NFL Week 5 odds have the Colts as a 3.5-point road underdog with a total of 43.5 points in this matchup.
Players to watch in the Colts vs. Broncos game
Indianapolis Colts
Yannick Ngakoue: He is one of five players since 1982 to have at least eight sacks in each of his first six seasons, but Ngakoue has 1.0 sack in four games for the Colts, and his snap count is shrinking each week. He needs to step up in this matchup against Russell Wilson, a quarterback known to take some sacks.
Denver Broncos
Bradley Chubb: With Randy Gregory injured, this is a game for Bradley Chubb to hunt at defensive end. Matt Ryan has been getting crushed on sacks in recent weeks, and Chubb leads Denver with 3.0 sacks. He needs to force a fumble in this game, which figures to be close and low scoring.
Our Best NFL Bets for the Colts vs. Broncos game
We have two NFL Week 5 predictions we feel good about for this game as these offenses try to get on track.
Colts vs. Broncos Point Spread Pick: Broncos -3.5 (-110)
The Colts vs. Broncos spread opened with the Broncos as 3-point home favorites, but it is already moving up to 3.5 as the injury news does not look promising for the Colts. Running back Jonathan Taylor will be questionable to play, and linebacker Shaquille Leonard is already ruled out with a concussion after just making his season debut on Sunday.
The Colts have trailed by at least 17 points in all three games except for the upset win over the Chiefs, which is likely going to look stranger as the season rolls on. But Ryan has tried to rally the team against the Texans and Titans before ultimately coming up short of a win.
As for Denver, Wilson may have had his best half of the season in Vegas on Sunday, but the offense was marred by Melvin Gordon’s fumble for a touchdown. Then a no-show third quarter and bad field position to start the fourth led to a two-score deficit with Denver running out of time to catch up.
The Broncos have disappointed, but at least they pulled out two wins against the Texans and 49ers at home. The offense and defense have both generally been better than what the Colts have done in four games. I would take the Broncos to cover in this one.
Be sure to check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.
bet on NFL with betmgmTotal Points: Under 43.5 (-110)
This feels like a trap where we bet under, then watch Wilson and Ryan throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns each like it was 2016 again. But let’s face the facts in this matchup:
- Colts average a league-low 14.3 points per game.
- Colts have yet to score more than 20 points or allow more than 24 points in any game.
- No Indianapolis game has yet to have more than 41 points.
- Broncos (66 points) have only scored more points than the Bears (64) and Colts (57) this season.
- Broncos are 3-for-10 (30%) in the red zone at scoring touchdowns, the worst conversion rate in the league.
- Broncos are only allowing 17 points per game, and Sunday’s 32-23 loss to the Raiders was the first time Denver allowed more than 270 yards or 17 points in a game this season.
We know Denver’s best running back, Javonte Williams, is out for the season with a torn ACL. We might not see Indy’s best back, Jonathan Taylor, in this game after he injured his ankle, and this is a short week.
Even with those backs, these teams rank 30th and 31st in rushing expected points added according to Pro Football Reference. So, a lot of the offense falls on these quarterbacks who are not performing up to their standards on new teams. Both also rank in the bottom seven in sack rate.
A 23-20 game would be a monumental achievement for these offenses on a short week. But even that would still satisfy the under, which should be your NFL bet of the week in this one.
Bet on NFL with caesars >Frequently asked questions about the Colts vs. Broncos game in week 5
The game is being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado.
In Week 1 of the 2021 season when he was with Seattle, Russell Wilson was 18-of-23 for 254 yards and four touchdowns in Indianapolis in a 28-16 win. His 152.3 passer rating is the highest of his career in any game with at least 20 pass attempts.
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