The Most Likely Lines To Move Over The Week
Check out this piece of insight from our experts.
Clemson (-7.5) at North Carolina
Dabo Swinney will continue to ride with QB D.J. Uiagalelei despite clearly not being good enough to lead the way for such a strong program and throwing a massive dud vs. the SC Gamecocks. That makes the Clemson Tigers a potential fade candidate as they face an explosive offense like the North Carolina Tar Heels.
Once again, Clemson continues to be overvalued by the betting markets, so some rookie gamblers will blind-bet on Clemson. So, if you’re looking to bet on them for whatever reason, go ahead and do it now. If not, just wait until kickoff and ride with the Tar Heels at the +8 or +8.5 range.
North Texas (+8.5) at UTSA
For the second year in a row, the UTSA Roadrunners will be in the Conference-USA championship game and will face a rival they know more than well. Their regular-season matchup with the North Texas Mean Green was one for the ages, with a Roadrunners 31-27 win thanks to one of the most exciting matchups of the season.
The Mean Green isn’t known for its defensive expertise and allows more than 30 points per game, but they also know the Roadrunners quite well, so this could go either way. So, if you’re tempted to back up UTSA, we highly encourage you to wait until kick-off, as we believe this line will drop by at least half a point by then.
LSU (o/u 51) at Georgia
The Louisiana State University Tigers were one of the most disappointing teams last season. They failed to make a statement in a game that could’ve sent him to the College Football Playoffs by allowing more than 400 yards and 38 points to one of the worst teams in the SEC in Texas A&M, so there’s that. There’s not much you could say about their defense.
So, 51 points for the over/under against one of the most explosive teams in the nation seems quite feasible at this point. Some could be tempted to ride with the under, considering the Bulldog’s suffocating defense. But we believe they could be in for a field day against the Tigers’ non-existent defense. This line is going up, so jump on it now if you like the over.
How To Benefit From Line Moves?
As it happens in the NFL, college football betting odds and NCAA football lines vary drastically throughout the week, both for future bets or for the games of that week alone. That gives bettors a potential edge if they follow the games they like for a long period.
Let’s say, for instance, that your NCAA predictions and handicapping have the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as six-point favorites over the Texas Longhorns, yet the college football odds open with them as 4-point favorites. You know the line is likely to move up towards the Fighting Irish, so you could get better value by betting that game earlier in the week rather than waiting for the day of the game.
On the flip side, imagine you believe the Texas Longhorns should be 10-point underdogs vs. the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, yet the NCAA football lines have them as six-point dogs. In that case, it would be better to wait until the day of the game to make the most of the line movement once bettors start putting money on their rivals.
What Causes Lines To Move?
It’s already been established that college football odds aren’t static and are subject to multiple changes throughout the week. But what causes college football betting odds to change? Moreover, what should we look out for when assessing NCAAF odds?
Injuries
Teams undergo multiple practices throughout the week. A star player could get hurt in practice, thus having a big impact on the line. Imagine, for example, that a team’s starting quarterback injures his shoulder in practice.
That could make NCAA football odds for his team to go way down as most NCAAF picks would lean towards their rivals. Conversely, a player suiting up after reports of potentially sitting out can also affect college football betting odds.
Sharp Bettors
Most experts will argue that sharp bettors are what truly make NCAA football odds move. We’re talking about guys who’ve been doing this for a living for a long time, who have inside information, are great handicappers, and overall successful bettors.
Needless to say, sharps don’t always follow public money. They constantly fade the public, especially when they are major line movements. They follow trends, value, and one should always look out when there’s sharp action on NCAA football odds.
Public Money
On the flip side, public money has been a controversial subject for years now. Some believe it has no effect whatsoever on college football betting odds, while others believe Vegas often adjusts depending on how much public money is on a side.
This should not be confused with huge bets placed on one side or the other. Sometimes, most of the money is placed on one side, while most of the public’s NCAAF predictions lean towards the other. Still, whether it affects college football odds or not will continue to be a matter of debate.
Wrong Lines
It rarely happens, but it does. Oddsmakers also make mistakes from time to time, and sometimes a line seems way too good to be true. They’re prompt to correct, especially after a lot of action on any given side, but NCAAF odds have also been affected by wrong lines.
Sometimes, oddsmakers believe a team should be favored when the other has a big edge over that. Needless to say, sharp bettors don’t need a lot of time to make the most of those mistakes, thus prompting a big change in NCAA football odds.
Middling: What Is It And How Rare Is It?
As you could guess by its name, middling is trying to find value in the middle. But what does that have to do with college football odds or NCAAF picks? Well, more experienced bettors could find middling opportunities depending on line movement.
Middling is a popular strategy among veteran football gamblers. Most new bettors are unfamiliar with this strategy because it requires them to bet on both teams, which is something that may not make sense for those who’re just entering this world.
Obviously, that also means risking twice as much money on your NCAAF predictions, although it could also minimize risk and reduce losses depending on how much NCAA Football lines move throughout the week.
Let’s take, for instance, that the Ohio State Buckeyes open the week as a 7-point favorite over the Michigan Wolverines. As a bettor, you believe there’s value in Ohio State depending on the NCAAF odds and your handicapping, so you bet on them.
Let’s say that multiple factors make NCAA football lines move for this game, so the Buckeyes become 10-point favorites for the same game. Then, you may feel there’s value on the other side, so you place a wager on the Wolverines at +10.
So, now that you’ve made two NCAAF picks, there’s a chance you cash in on both wagers, lose one of the wagers, and still win, etcetera. You can win both bets if the Buckeyes win by 8 o 9 points, win one wager if the Wolverines lose by six or fewer points or the Buckeyes win by at least 11, or push both bets if the Buckeyes win by exactly 7 or 10 points.
FAQs About College Football Betting
What’s A Push In College Football?
Point spreads and total bets can end in a push. That means that the team won or lost by the same exact number you betted on, or that they combined for exactly the amount of points that was projected by oddsmakers before the game.
Take, for instance, that you bet on the Texas A&M Aggies -6, and they win by exactly six points. In that case, your bet pushes and you’ll get your money back. That would also happen if you bet on the Michigan State Spartans +6, and they lose by exactly six points.
Bets on a total push when both teams combine for the same number of the total. For example, let’s say the over/under for the Texas A&M vs. Michigan State game is set at 65 points, and the game ends 35-30. Then, the bet pushes, regardless if you bet the over or the under.
What’s The Number Next To The Teams?
Unlike other sports, college teams are ranked by the Associated Press every week. That means the top-25 teams in the nation will have a number next to their name, which indicates their position on the said ranking. Therefore, a team with (1) next to it will be considered the best team in NCAA Football entering that week.
Of course, ranked teams can match up vs. non-ranked teams, and that’s usually the way it goes. The ranking changes throughout the season depending on the teams’ performances, records, the strength of schedule, and multiple factors, so non-ranked teams could also be ranked at some point.
How Do Prop Bets Work?
We already know how point spread and total bets work, but college football also allows us to focus on an individual player or team performance rather than looking at the game’s outcome. How does that work? Well, it’s rather simple.
Player props focus solely on the said player’s performance. Passing/rushing touchdowns, anytime touchdown scorers, over/under passing yards, or even whether he’ll win an award. It doesn’t matter if his team losses; your wager still cashes if he cracks the number you betted on.
That also goes for team props. You can bet on whether a team will score over/under X points or if the team will record a sack, an interception, or it’ll get a safety at any point in the game. Once again, it doesn’t matter if they win or lose, as long as they do what you said they’d do.
If you want to get the best college football odds, get into middling, or, just want to learn how to bet on college football, don’t hesitate to visit our page for that.