Chiefs vs. Eagles Predictions: NFL Super Bowl Picks

Chiefs vs. Eagles Predictions for Super Bowl Matchup

The 2022 NFL season comes down to one game between the two No. 1 seeds with 16-3 records as the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.

The Chiefs vs. Eagles odds see the Eagles as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 50.5 points. This would make it the ninth Super Bowl to have a spread under 3 points, and so far only half of those games have been decided by fewer than 10 points.

The Chiefs have already made a 10-point fourth-quarter comeback in Super Bowl LIV by beating the 49ers 31-20, but then they lost the following year in a 31-9 rout by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV.

The Eagles are trying to win their second Super Bowl in six seasons, but they would be just the second team to ever do that with a new head coach and quarterback from the last time as Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts are already here in their second season together.

It is the No. 1 offense and likely MVP quarterback in Patrick Mahomes against the No. 1 defense with 70 sacks, which would be the most ever for a Super Bowl winner if Philadelphia wins. The Eagles have allowed just 14 points this postseason and allowed 0.28 fewer points per drive in the regular season than the Chiefs. Since 1993, Super Bowl matchups where one team allowed at least 0.28 fewer points per drive have gone 9-1 in favor of the better defensive team.

But the Chiefs are battle tested and have played a tougher schedule than the breeze the Eagles have had, which saw five of their nine wins against winning teams come against teams with a negative scoring differential for the season. The Eagles also beat the Cowboys (Cooper Rush) and 49ers (Brock Purdy) with backup quarterbacks, and Purdy’s elbow lasted three throws before that game was ruined by injury.

In 37 career starts, we have basically never seen the Eagles with Hurts at quarterback beat a good team with a good quarterback. Now is their chance against the best player in the game in the biggest game of the year.

Players to watch in the Chiefs vs. Eagles game

No Chiefs vs Eagles prediction can be complete without pinpoining the jey players to watch.

Kansas City Chiefs

Travis Kelce: All eyes on Travis Kelce as he is the engine of this receiving corps without Tyreek Hill this year. Last season, the Eagles held Kelce to just 23 yards while Hill exploded for 186 yards and three touchdowns. No Hill this year, and the Chiefs have some wide receiver injuries with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney not 100%. This puts more pressure on Kelce to deliver, but he has eight straight playoff games with at leas 75 receiving yards, a playoff record. He could become the first tight end to win Super Bowl MVP, but it is going to take a huge effort against maybe the best defense he has seen this year.

Philadelphia Eagles

Haason Reddick: Just as A.J. Brown has been a dominant addition to the offense, Reddick has been dominant on the defense with a team-high 16 sacks and 3.5 more sacks in the playoffs, including the play that injured Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship Game. With a couple of edge pressures, Reddick could dramatically shift this game in Philly’s favor and is a nice value bet for Super Bowl MVP.

Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Chiefs vs. Eagles game

We have two Super Bowl predictions for this epic matchup on Sunday.

Chiefs vs. Eagles Point Spread Pick: Eagles -1.5 (-110)

The Chiefs vs. Eagles prediction that we have on the spread is as follows:

It opened with the Chiefs as a 1-point favorite and it quickly moved to Eagles -2.5, but it has been holding strong for days on Eagles -1.5 as we get closer to Sunday.

This should not be a blowout, but if the Eagles win they are likely going to cover the small spread, so I would not pick Chiefs to cover when you can just pick moneyline or go a step further and bet on Mahomes for Super Bowl MVP (+135) since it is unlikely anyone else on the Chiefs would win it.

But this will be a tough matchup for both teams as this is one of the best defenses the Chiefs will see, and this is by far the best offense the Eagles will have seen this season.

For the Chiefs, it comes down to protecting Mahomes against this great pass rush and getting the ball out of his hands quickly while still being efficient. Last year, Mahomes got the ball out faster against the Eagles than he has in any other game of his career, but Tyreek Hill was the big receiver that day and no one else on the Chiefs had 25 yards. These receivers not named Kelce are going to have to step up big time, and that is not looking great with the matchup against two great corners in Darius Slay and James Bradberry. It could be Kelce or bust for this offense.

That is the premiere matchup, but the other side of the ball could be the crucial one depending on which version of Jalen Hurts shows up. He has not been sharp since the shoulder injury in Week 15, but the Eagles are still running the ball well and playing great defense to win games. If Hurts plays well, the Eagles almost certainly win. But if he averages 4.84 yards per pass like he did against the 49ers, then this is going to be a struggle. The Chiefs are not exceptionally weak at the run or the pass, so it is hard to predict if the Eagles will try to target them through the air, on the ground with the backs, or a mixture with Hurts running a lot himself. He has not broken 40 yards on the ground in three straight games.

It is a close call, but historically, the Eagles are the kind of team who wins this matchup. You take the great pass rush over the team with the MVP quarterback. In fact, no one has won MVP and the Super Bowl in the same season since Kurt Warner on the 1999 Rams. That was also the last time the first-team All Pro quarterback won the Super Bowl as the others are 0-8 in the big game since 2001.

Time and time again, football shows us that games are won in the trenches and defense does win championships. The Chiefs had an incredible comeback against the 49ers three years ago, but even in that game Mahomes had two interceptions and was down 20-10 nearly midway through the fourth quarter before converting a third-and-15 to Tyreek Hill. That’s the second time we mention Hill, who destroyed the Eagles last year. The Chiefs have done a great job to get to this game without him, and the offense is better without him this year, but against this particular defense with the health issues the Chiefs have going in, it is enough to take the Eagles to win this Super Bowl.

It also does not help that Carl Cheffers is the referee and he has a history of making excessive penalty calls, especially in games involving the Chiefs. He was the official in Super Bowl LV where two phantom defensive pass interference (DPI) penalties were called on Kansas City before halftime to blow the game open for the Buccaneers. Guess which defense leads the NFL in DPI calls this year with 15 and which offense has benefitted the least with three flags? The Chiefs. That is just another reason to take the Eagles for your NFL bet of the week.

Be sure to visit our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

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Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+100)

No matter if he is playing well or not, scoring a rushing touchdown is something Jalen Hurts is great at doing. He has 15 of them this year including the playoffs, and that is a new quarterback record for a single season. The Eagles had 32 rushing touchdowns to lead the league this year, and Hurts has made a killing on the quarterback sneak with the way the Eagles push him forward, which is still legal for now.

Hurts has not thrown a touchdown in three of his last four games, but he still has five rushing touchdowns in those games. He has scored a rushing touchdown in 11 games this year, so he has been as reliable a touchdown scorer as you could possibly be from the quarterback position.

Look for Hurts to add on to his record total with at least one rushing touchdown in this game. It also helps that the Chiefs allow a red zone touchdown on 67.3% of trips this year, second worst in the NFL. Not a bad sign for our Chiefs vs. Eagles predictions list.

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Frequently asked questions about the Chiefs vs. Eagles game in Super Bowl LVII

The game is being played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Under Nick Sirianni since 2021, the Eagles are 18-18-1 ATS.

In 2021, the Chiefs beat the Eagles 42-30 and Patrick Mahomes threw his average pass in 2.32 seconds, the fastest game in his 93-game career. He is 46-4 in his career when getting the ball out in under 2.9 seconds according to Next Gen Stats.

You can find more at our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.