Chiefs vs. Colts Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 3 Predictions

Chiefs vs. Colts Week 3 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Kansas City Chiefs can improve to 3-0 while dropping the Indianapolis Colts to 0-3 in the AFC playoff race. These teams last met in 2019, which was Colts coach Frank Reich’s biggest upset win of his career. As a 10.5-point underdog, the Colts won 19-13 in Kansas City on a Sunday night.

The NFL Week 3 odds have the Chiefs as a 5.5-point road favorite in this matchup. But in honor of that 2019 upset, here is a summary of why that 19-13 game (Patrick Mahomes’ 24th start) is such an outlier in a career that is now 76 starts long:

• It is the only loss in Mahomes’ career to an opponent that scored fewer than 26 points (45-1 record).
• It was the first time in 24 starts that Mahomes did not lead the Chiefs to at least 26 points.
• It is the only game in Mahomes’ first 50 starts where the Chiefs did not score at least 22 points.
• It is the only loss in Mahomes’ career to a team with fewer than eight wins (2019 Colts finished 7-9).
• It is the only loss in Mahomes’ career to a team with under 340 yards of offense (28-1 record).
• It is the only loss in Mahomes’ career when a team blitzes him at least 12 times (12-1 record).
• Mahomes is 28-2 SU as a favorite of more than 7 points and 19-13 was the first loss.

Mahomes did not have Tyreek Hill in that game, which is the case this week too. But he also does not have an ankle injury, and the Colts are coming off an embarrassing 24-0 loss in Jacksonville and could still be without two of their most important players.

Players to watch in the Chiefs vs. Colts game

Kansas City Chiefs

Chris Jones: After feasting on Justin Herbert for his first two sacks of the season, Chris Jones can set his sights on Matt Ryan. The Colts are supposed to have one of the best offensive lines in the league, but Ryan took five sacks in Jacksonville and currently has an 8% sack rate, which would be the highest season of his career. Jones needs to be in attack mode on the road.

Indianapolis Colts

Shaquille Leonard: The All-Pro linebacker who led the NFL with eight forced fumbles has yet to make his 2022 debut because of injury. While he is getting practice time in, he is not a guarantee to play on Sunday. He would be a big help as the Chiefs love to offer up the obligatory fumble every week, and Leonard is the best at punching the ball out now.

Our Best NFL Bets for the Chiefs vs. Colts game

We have two NFL Week 3 predictions we like to share for this game as the Colts desperately try to avoid an 0-3 start for the second year in a row.

Chiefs vs. Colts Point Spread Pick: Colts -5.5 (-110)

The Chiefs vs. Colts spread opened with the Chiefs as a 2.5-point road favorite, but that line has been up to 6.5 and is settling in closer to 5.5 going into Friday.

Obviously, the Colts are waiting on big injury news regarding their best (and only?) wide receiver in Michael Pittman and their best defender in Shaquille Leonard, who has yet to play in 2022. Those two can be a difference maker, because Leonard is the best player on the team at creating turnovers and Pittman seems to be the only receiver Matt Ryan can trust. Without Pittman in Week 2, Ryan could not move the ball in Jacksonville, took five sacks, and the Colts were shut out 24-0.

If Pittman (quad), who has been limited in practice so far, can play on Sunday, then he can have the impact Mike Williams had for the Chargers against Kansas City in Week 2 with over 100 yards. But even with that game we saw the Chiefs did a good job of containing the other receivers, not allowing Austin Ekeler to do much, and the Chargers were missing Keenan Allen.

Well, the Colts do not have a Keenan Allen, and they don’t even have a Mike Williams if Pittman is out again. If the Colts get their guys back then it could be interesting with the team desperately trying to avoid going into another 0-3 hole, but the Chiefs are simply the better team right now. It would be the most “NFL Randomness” thing for a team to struggle with the Texans and Jaguars before beating a top team like the Chiefs, but the Colts cannot be trusted right now. Take the Chiefs to cover.

Be sure to check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

Patrick Mahomes Prop: Over 299.5 Passing Yards (+115)

Many would say Patrick Mahomes did not have his ‘A’ game against the Chargers last week, but he still managed to throw two touchdown passes few quarterbacks could, and he got the win over the Chargers.

With a few extra days to prepare, look for Mahomes to come out sharp on the road where he has consistently been more dynamic in his career:

• Home (31 games): 282.9 pass yards, 66 TD, 18 INT, 7.72 YPA, 100.9 PR
• Road (34 games): 318.1 pass yards, 92 TD, 19 INT, 8.43 YPA, 111.4 PR
• Eleven of Mahomes’ 13 regular-season games with 375+ passing yards have come on the road
• Nine of Mahomes’ 13 games with under 250 passing yards have been at home, excluding the 2019 game in Denver when he dislocated his kneecap early

Maybe he gets a little too comfortable at home, tries riskier passes, and does more to manipulate the snap count to get free plays. But on the road, he has been dialed in for his career. I would take the alternate line and bet on Mahomes to throw for 300-plus yards in Indy for an NFL bet of the week.