Chiefs vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 7 Predictions

Chiefs vs. 49ers Week 7 matchup preview and current betting lines

In Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs were able to extract some revenge for their Super Bowl loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Now, the San Francisco 49ers can do the same in the first rematch of Super Bowl LIV.

The coaches and quarterbacks are the same from three years ago, but the player who made the key play of the game, Tyreek Hill, is gone. It was Hill’s 44-yard reception on a third-and-15 with the Chiefs down 20-10 in the fourth quarter that turned the game in favor of the Chiefs, who went on to score the last three touchdowns in a 31-20 win.

There have not been many 40-yard completions for the Chiefs this year without Hill, and for only the third time in his career, Patrick Mahomes lost a game when an opponent scored fewer than 27 points. He is 45-3 now when that happens with a two-game losing streak after the Chiefs fell 24-20 to the Bills.

The 49ers also lost on Sunday, a surprise 28-14 defeat in Atlanta that saw more defenders go down with injury. But there is some optimism that the 49ers can get some of their best players back for Sunday, including star pass rusher Nick Bosa, star left tackle Trent Williams, and starting safety Jimmie Ward.

The NFL Week 7 odds have the Chiefs as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 48.5 points in this matchup. Can the Chiefs avoid a losing streak?

Players to watch in the Chiefs vs. 49ers game

Kansas City Chiefs

L’Jarius Sneed: If he’s not going to cover receivers tightly, then the Chiefs might as well blitz him. Sneed is tied for the team lead with 3.0 sacks despite being a corner. He has already blitzed 23 times and created seven pressures in six games after having 47 blitzes and seven pressures in all of 2021.

San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Wilson: He was having a very nice season until Sunday’s disastrous outing where Wilson rushed for 25 yards and lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. Prior to that, Wilson rushed for at least 74 yards in the previous four games. The Chiefs have given up good runs to Devin Singletary (Bills) and Josh Jacobs (Raiders) the last two weeks.
Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Chiefs vs. 49ers game

We have two NFL Week 7 predictions for this Super Bowl rematch.

Chiefs vs. 49ers Point Spread Pick: Chiefs -2.5 (-118)

The Chiefs vs. 49ers spread opened with the Chiefs as a 1-point road favorite and it has only trended upward from there.

Kansas City has had a fourth-quarter lead or tie in 19 consecutive games (15-4 record). This team is hard to beat, and Mahomes even has better statistics on the road in his career than he does at home. The Chiefs also rarely lose two in a row.

San Francisco’s defense is very good and coordinator DeMeco Ryans will be a head coach soon, but after getting pushed around by the Falcons on Sunday, we can put the historic talk to rest. As it turns out, doing well against Justin Fields, Geno Smith, the Denver version of Russell Wilson, the 2022 version of the Rams, Baker Mayfield (and his fired coach Matt Rhule) does not guarantee success against a legitimate offense.

The injury bug has bit the San Francisco defense, but that is going around to a lot of teams this year. This may not be a matchup for the Chiefs to light up the scoreboard, but Mahomes has a strong history against top-ranked defenses.

Much like in Super Bowl LIV, it comes down to trust. It is still easier to trust Mahomes and Andy Reid to figure it out than it is to trust Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Mahomes is 16-5-1 ATS and 15-7 SU when the spread is no more than three points, or he is an underdog. Five of the seven losses have been to teams with Josh Allen or Tom Brady at quarterback. The 49ers could have a chance in this one, but trust the Chiefs to cover.

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Total Points: Under 48.5 (-110)

In case you have not noticed, scoring is down around the NFL this season. Teams are averaging 21.6 points per game, which would be the lowest season since 2009 and we haven’t even got into the bad weather and more backups starting due to injury part of the season yet.

The over is 1-5 in San Francisco games, and the team’s only game that surpassed 42 points was the 37-15 win in Carolina. Even that game was poised to end at 30-15 (with a pick-six included) until a turnover on downs set the 49ers up for a 3-yard touchdown drive in the last four minutes.

The Chiefs have been in some high-scoring games, but they and their opponents each have only three touchdowns that have been scored outside of the red zone. The big plays and quick scores are hard to come by against this team. This could be a game where you see a lot of long drives and third-down stops and forced field goal attempts to keep the total down.

Even the Super Bowl between these teams was floundering at 20-10 in the fourth quarter until “Jet Chip Wasp” was called and Hill hauled in a 44-yard bomb on third-and-down. Then after the Chiefs led 24-20 late, they added a garbage time touchdown they didn’t really need to end the game at 31-20, beating the 49ers for the Super Bowl.

In fact, it would not be surprising to see the Chiefs in a 24-20 game for the second week in a row, but this time they come out on top for the win. Take the under for your NFL bet of the week.

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Frequently asked questions about the Chiefs vs. 49ers game in week 7

The game is being played at Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco, California.

Mahomes is 10-0 ATS and SU when he is not favored to win by more than three points and the game has a total under 54 points. This game would qualify with a spread of Chiefs -2.5 and a total of 48.5 points.

You can find more at our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.