Buccaneers vs. Steelers Week 6 matchup preview and current betting lines
The Pittsburgh Steelers are dead last in the AFC with a 1-4 record following their biggest loss (35 points) since 1989. Pittsburgh has trailed by at least 28 points in five of its last 13 games, though all of those were on the road. This will be rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett’s first home start, so his first road start was against the Super Bowl favorites (Bills), and his first home start is against Tom Brady. Tough draw.
Tampa Bay (3-2) ended a losing skid with a 21-15 win over the Falcons to remain in first place in the NFC South. The offense had its first game without a turnover this year, and the receiving corps is getting healthier. The defense has been fantastic outside of that Kansas City domination in Week 4.
Pittsburgh’s defense just allowed Josh Allen to pass for a career-high 424 yards with most of the damage coming before halftime. This could be another tough outing without T.J. Watt, and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick has yet to practice with a knee injury.
The NFL Week 6 odds have the Buccaneers as an 8.5-point road favorite with a total of 45 points in this matchup. Can the Steelers keep it closer this time?
Players to watch in the Buccaneers vs. Steelers game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chris Godwin: It has been a slow start for Godwin after his torn ACL. He was limited to 52% of the snaps against Atlanta, but he still had six catches for 61 yards. He has caught 16-of-19 targets this season and could be a good touchdown scorer prop bet as he seeks his first score of 2022. The Pittsburgh secondary is really banged up now with injuries to safety Minkah Fitzpatrick (knee) and corner Levi Wallace (concussion).
Jaylen Warren: By the week, running back Najee Harris looks like a disappointing first-round pick. The Steelers seem to get a boost out of backup Jaylen Warren, who is averaging 4.9 yards per carry to 3.2 for Harris. He also has been more effective as a receiver. Look for Warren’s snaps to grow if this continues.
Our Best NFL Bets for the Buccaneers vs. Steelers game
We have two NFL Week 6 predictions for this matchup between the Steelers and an old nemesis at quarterback.
Buccaneers vs. Steelers Point Spread Pick: Buccaneers -8.5 (-110)
The Buccaneers vs. Steelers spread opened with the Buccaneers as 3.5-point road favorites, but it has quickly gone up to 8.5 with 84% of the money coming on the Steelers’ line.
It has been over a year since the Steelers lost a home game by more than one possession, but this team is playing bad football right now. Losing a Hall of Fame quarterback and dominant defender (Watt) would hurt a lot of teams, but the Steelers were struggling at times last year with those players in place too.
Kenny Pickett looked comfortable and poised for a rookie in Buffalo, but he gets very little help from his running game and play calling. The Steelers have a league-low two touchdown passes and are averaging 15.4 points per game. Tampa Bay has held four of five opponents to 15 points or less this season.
Meanwhile, Brady has a long history of spreading the Steelers out and picking them apart. The receivers are healthy and ready to give the Steelers problems. Pittsburgh is worse off in the injury department between Fitzpatrick’s knee and three players battling a concussion (safety Terrell Edmunds, tight end Pat Freiermuth, and corner Levi Wallace). Not to mention no Watt again for the Steelers.
Even if the Buccaneers only score 24 points in this game, it is hard to see the Steelers doing much better against Todd Bowles’ blitz-happy defense that can create turnovers. This could very well be a 27-17 game, so you should take Tampa Bay to cover.
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Player Prop: Tom Brady Over 25.5 Pass Completions (-115)
This sounds hard to believe, but despite playing in nearly 370 games, Tom Brady has completed more than 30 passes three games in a row for the first time in his career. Brady had 35 completions against Atlanta despite the Buccaneers leading 21-0 in the fourth quarter. Brady had 39 completions against Kansas City in a game where his team trailed by double digits for most of the way. Brady had 31 completions in a 14-12 loss to the Packers, an odd low-scoring game where his top three wideouts were out.
So, it has not been a streak dominated by the game script. The Buccaneers are throwing the ball a ton because that’s what they do best with this revamped line not opening many holes on the ground for Leonard Fournette. Now Fournette may find more success against Pittsburgh’s leaky run defense, but this is still a game where Brady is going to air it out frequently. If Pickett can do some scoring against this defense as well, that should only implore Brady to keep throwing late into the game. But no quarterback in NFL history has been more comfortable with throwing with a three or four-score lead in the fourth quarter than Brady.
Take his over 25.5 completions as your NFL bet of the week.bet on NFL with betmgm
Frequently asked questions about the Buccaneers vs. Steelers game in week 6
The game is being played at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Tom Brady is 12-3 against the Steelers with 69.2% completions, 4,450 yards, 8.4 yards per attempt, 34 touchdowns, five interceptions, and a 112.2 passer rating. All of those numbers are better than his career averages.
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