Bills vs. Lions Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 12 Predictions

Bills vs. Lions Week 12 matchup preview and current betting lines

The Buffalo Bills (7-3) are making a home out of Detroit as they return to Ford Field for their second game in five days to take on the Lions (4-6) on Thanksgiving. The Bills escaped their blizzard to beat the Browns 31-23 in Detroit on Sunday to snap a two-game losing streak and for Josh Allen to snap a three-game streak of multiple interceptions.

The run defense looked great in holding Nick Chubb to the worst rushing game of his NFL career (14 carries for 19 yards). Meanwhile, the Bills rushed for over 170 yards for a second week in a row, and this was even with minimal contributions from Allen. Rookie James Cook had 86 yards in his best game yet.

The Bills could use that kind of ground dominance in this one as the Lions have been winning lately with Jared Goff limiting his mistakes behind a strong run game and opportunistic defense. The Lions have seven takeaways during their three-game winning streak after producing six turnovers when the team was 1-6.

The NFL Week 12 odds have the Bills as a 9.5-point road favorite with a total of 54.5 points. The Lions have only lost two games by double digits this season, and one of those was a Dallas game where they never trailed by more than four points until the final three minutes. Can they put up another respectable effort at home, if not an upset on the holiday?

Players to watch in the Bills vs. Lions game

Buffalo Bills

Stefon Diggs: Expectations were high for Diggs to tear it up indoors on Sunday, but he barely saw any balls early in the game, leading to visible frustration on the sideline. But he did catch a short touchdown and the team got the win without passing for 200 yards. With the Lions having a bottom-ranked pass defense and top corner Jeff Okudah likely out with a concussion, look for Diggs to shine in this matchup with a huge game. Likely over 100 yards and a touchdown.

Detroit Lions

Jamaal Williams: Maybe an afterthought with D’Andre Swift there, Williams leads the NFL with 12 touchdowns after scoring three more last week against the Giants. He has seven 1-yard touchdown runs this year, so he has been almost automatic in short yardage for this offense. He’ll try to crack a tough Buffalo defense that just shut down Nick Chubb.

Bills vs. Lions prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Bills vs. Lions game

We have two NFL Week 12 predictions for this first matchup on Thanksgiving.

Bills vs. Lions Point Spread Pick: Lions +9.5 (-110)

The Bills vs. Lions spread opened with the Bills as a 9.5-point road favorite. The Bills have the largest margin of victory (10.7) in the NFL this season, but Green Bay is the only team the Bills have been able to beat by double digits over the last five games.

We have already seen the Bills blow a 17-point home lead to the Vikings in a stunning loss, and that was a week after they blew an 11-point lead to Zach Wilson and the Jets. Given what Wilson usually looks like, that is an ugly loss.

Even on Sunday against Cleveland, the Bills did not bring their A game, led 28-10 at one point, but Cleveland was nearly an onside kick recovery away from making it interesting in the final minute.

The Bills may still be the best team in football, but they are not playing at such a ridiculously high level on both sides of the ball that they are a lock to cover 9.5 anymore. The Lions have been tough in just about every game except the ugly 29-0 loss in New England, and they have come back from 17 down to make a game of it with the Eagles in Week 1.

We know the Lions can score after putting up 31 points in the last two games and still ranking No. 8 on the season in scoring. The offense also has just one giveaway in the last four games, so they have been taking care of the ball (better than Buffalo even).

The Bills should get this win, but the Lions come in playing well, and we know the backdoor is always open for a cover in a game like this. I would take the Lions with the points.

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Bills Prop: Gabriel Davis Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-120)

Davis drops too many balls and needs to be more consistent as the No. 2 receiver behind Stefon Diggs, but this is a great matchup for him. The Lions allow a league-worst 8.1 yards per pass attempt, and teams have been going deep on them all year. The average pass thrown against Detroit travels 9.3 yards, the deepest in the league according to Pro Football Reference.

Even though Josh Allen did not pass for 200 yards against the Browns, Davis still had 68 yards on five catches. He had 93 yards against the Vikings the week before.

This is a low total for him to go over, and he could even do it in one or two big catches. The Lions won’t have corner Jeff Okudah (concussion), and even if he would have taken on Stefon Diggs more than Davis, it leaves the Lions short a starting corner.

This should be an easy over in a game where the Bills should attack through the air more than they did on Sunday in their first trip to Detroit this week. Take the Davis over and possibly even an anytime touchdown scorer for your NFL bet of the week.

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Frequently asked questions about the Bills vs. Lions game in Week 12

The game is being played at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

A holiday tradition, there was a time where the Lions were terrible in these games, going 0-8 SU and 0-8 ATS in 2004-2011. But since 2012, the Lions are 4-6 SU and 7-3 ATS on Thanksgiving. They have lost the last five years, but the games were usually close in the end. Detroit has only lost by double digits once in the last 10 Thanksgiving games.

Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 8-3 ATS as a home underdog, one of the best records in the league over that time.

You can always check out our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.