Bills vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 6 Predictions

Bills vs. Chiefs Week 6 matchup preview and current betting lines

There should not be a bigger game in the regular season this year than Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs. These are the top two teams in Super Bowl 57 odds, and Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the top two favorites for the MVP award this season.

They also just played one of the most exciting, dramatic playoff games of all time with the Chiefs winning 42-36 in overtime. The last three matchups between Allen and Mahomes have all gone over 57.5 points, and the quarterbacks were the leading rushers for their teams in both 2021 meetings.

Mahomes is 7-0-1 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career, and this is the first time he is a home underdog. The NFL Week 6 odds have the Bills as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 53.5 points.

Is this finally the year for the Bills to make sure the playoffs run through Buffalo? This is the game you bring in a Von Miller for. This is the game where the Chiefs miss a Tyreek Hill, who had over 150 yards in both playoff wins over Buffalo the last two seasons. We will find out if Mahomes is someone you should never bet against as an underdog, because on paper, the Bills are the better team and should have swept the Chiefs in their building last year if not for going braindead for 13 seconds and getting the raw end of an overtime coin flip.

Players to watch in the Bills vs. Chiefs game

Buffalo Bills

Gabriel Davis: You think the Chiefs might know the name Gabriel Davis after he had 201 yards and four touchdowns in that playoff game? Davis looked healthy in Week 5 against Pittsburgh and had 171 yards with two touchdowns. He should be ready to produce a big game for Buffalo as the Chiefs have struggled with guarding bigger wide receivers this season (Mike Williams, Michael Pittman, Mike Evans, Davante Adams).

Kansas City Chiefs

Marquez Valdes-Scantling: New to this growing rivalry, Valdes-Scantling has come on the last two games with 153 yards. He may be emerging as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver and is still the best deep threat even if he hasn’t connected on a bomb with Mahomes yet. He’s also seeking his first touchdown of the season after Travis Kelce gobbled up four on Monday night.

Bills vs. Chiefs prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Bills vs. Chiefs game

We have two NFL Week 6 predictions for this epic matchup for the lead in the AFC and the MVP race.

Bills vs. Chiefs Point Spread Pick: Bills -2.5 (-118)

The Bills vs. Chiefs spread opened with the Bills as 1.5-point road favorites, but it has moved up to Buffalo -2.5 or even Buffalo -3 at some sportsbooks.

Since 2011, in regular-season games between teams that would make the playoffs that year, home underdogs of 2.5-to-3 points are an impressive 19-9 SU and 19-8-1 ATS. But it is safe to say none of those games were as anticipated as this one.

Mahomes has lost only one home game by more than eight points, and that was last year’s 38-20 blowout by the Bills in Week 5. If the Bills just make one smart play in the last 13 seconds of the playoffs, or won the coin toss in overtime, they would have swept the Chiefs in Arrowhead. They have only upgraded the roster since while the Chiefs are leaning a bit more on Mahomes right now to make magic happen without Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs have also allowed their last 10 opponents to score at least 20 points, including 60 points over the last two games to the Buccaneers and Raiders.

The Bills have a lot of the right ingredients to beat the Chiefs that most NFL teams lack:

  • Allen is a leading MVP candidate playing his best ball, and he vastly improved his performance against the Kansas City defense from 2020 to 2021.
  • The Bills have 11 takeaways and 16 sacks on defense despite being 31st in blitz rate as they have the talent to get pressure with standard rushes, a key factor in defending Mahomes well.
  • The Bills have no fear of playing in that building after past success.
  • Both offenses are converting over 50% of the time on third down, but the Bills are No. 1 at 55.7%.

This is Buffalo’s chance to overtake the Chiefs for the inside track to the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. Mahomes has never had to play a road playoff game. If the Bills are a legitimate Super Bowl team this year, they win this game. The Chiefs were down 17-0 to the Raiders on Monday night before coming back with an emotionally-draining effort. Let’s see the Bills pounce on that extra day of rest early and take control of this one to deliver the biggest regular-season win in the Allen era. Take the Bills -2.5.

Always be sure to check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

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Total: Over 53.5 Points (-115)

The last time these teams met, they scored 31 points after the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter. It was quite the spectacle, but it is not unexpected with these quarterbacks and teams. They played a 38-20 game at Arrowhead a year ago, and the 2020 AFC Championship Game was 38-24.

These are the only two teams scoring over 30 points per game in what so far has been the lowest-scoring NFL season in over a decade. There are also these facts:

  • Since 2020, the Bills (24-18-1, 57.1%) rank fourth in games where the over hit and the Chiefs (24-20, 54.6%) rank seventh.
  • Since 2020, the over is 20-9-1 (69.0%) in games after a Buffalo win.
  • Since 2020, the over is 12-7-1 (63.2%) in Buffalo’s road games, the second-highest over rate in the NFL.
  • Since 2018, the over is 8-2 (80%) when the Chiefs are underdogs in the Mahomes era.

These teams are too good to play a defensive slugfest. They make Commanders-Bears or Colts-Broncos look like a different sport. Trust the over hitting as a top NFL bet of the week.

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Frequently asked questions about the Bills vs. Chiefs game in week 6

The game is being played at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

Frickin’ unbelievable is what it is. As an underdog, Mahomes is 6-2 SU,7-0-1 ATS, and he averages 8.98 yards per pass attempt with 28 touchdowns, eight interceptions, and a 116.2 passer rating.

Be sure to check out our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.