Bengals vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 11 Predictions

Bengals vs. Steelers Week 11 matchup preview and current betting lines

It will either be payback time for the Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) or sweeping time for the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-6) after this one. The teams met in arguably Week 1’s wildest game when the Bengals could not stop allowing sacks and turning the ball over to Pittsburgh before losing the game because they could not execute an extra point or 29-yard field goal. The game showed the important of long snappers as an injury forced the kicking operation to be off the mark when it came time to win the game for Cincinnati, which lost 23-20 in overtime.

We’ll see just how costly that loss proves to be with the Bengals currently sitting at No. 9 in the AFC playoff race. The Steelers finally got back in the win column last week at home against the Saints after T.J. Watt played in his first game since Week 1 in Cincinnati.

This could be the healthiest the Pittsburgh defense has been all season as they look to get Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, and safety Damontae Kazee on the field together for the first time in 2022. Fitzpatrick missed last week’s game for an appendectomy and Kazee had an interception in his team debut in Week 10. If you’ll recall, Fitzpatrick got this season started with a pick-six against Joe Burrow, who will not have Ja’Marr Chase (hip) in this game even after the bye week.

The NFL Week 11 odds have the Bengals as a 3.5-point road favorite with a total of 40.5 points. Will the Bengals get a split, or does Mike Tomlin win another game as a home underdog?

Players to watch in the Bengals vs. Steelers game

Cincinnati Bengals

Tee Higgins: He left Week 1’s meeting in the first half with a concussion, but Ja’Marr Chase was still there for a big game with over 100 yards and a touchdown. Now it will be up to Higgins to serve as a No. 1 option. He has the talent, but there is no denying this offense is more lethal when defenses have to deal with both Higgins and Chase. The Bengals are not going to have that luxury against Pittsburgh this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Minkah Fitzpatrick: The star safety is expected to return after having an appendectomy last week. In Week 1, he had a pick-six against Burrow and was the one who blocked the extra point at the end of regulation that would have won the game for Cincinnati. Fitzpatrick is a ball magnet, and this will only be the second time he gets to take the field with T.J. Watt this season. The two together play a role in almost every takeaway this defense generates.
Bengals vs. Steelers prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Bengals vs. Steelers game

We have two NFL Week 11 predictions for this AFC North rematch with a lot on the line for the Bengals.

Bengals vs. Steelers Point Spread Pick: Steelers +4 (-110)

The Bengals vs. Steelers spread opened with the Bengals as a 5.5-point road favorite before moving down to 3.5 as money is coming in on the Steelers. But you can get the Steelers as a 4-point underdog at DraftKings.

This is an interesting matchup since the Bengals looked so good against Pittsburgh in 2021, but they were embarrassed at home in Week 1 this year. Burrow became the first quarterback since 1998 to throw four picks and take seven sacks in a game. He has just two picks in the weeks since, but that Pittsburgh pass rush could win big in this game as the Cincinnati offensive line is still a liability.

But both teams are going to see if their dominant rushing performance in the last game was something to build on or fool’s gold. The Bengals got five touchdowns out of Joe Mixon against Carolina before the bye. The Steelers rushed for 217 yards against the Saints last week, their first 200-yard rushing game since 2016. Kenny Pickett also had his first game-winning drive and his first full game without throwing an interception.

The Bengals may win this game, but there is good value to the spread for the Steelers given the key pieces back on defense while Chase, the biggest difference maker in Cincinnati’s offense, is still out. It would be a different pick if this was a game with Chase and without Watt, but it’s the opposite and that should be bad news for Cincinnati.

Mike Tomlin is also outstanding as a home underdog, posting a 9-1 ATS record since 2018. The Steelers do some of their best work when the odds are against them. Take Pittsburgh to cover for your NFL bet of the week.

Be sure to check out our NFL picks page for more betting tips.

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Total: Over 40.5 Points (-110)

While three of Pittsburgh’s last four games have gone under 38.5 points, there is real potential here for another 23-20 or 24-21 type of game here between these rivals.

Both teams rushed for over 200 yards in their last game, so it is possible one or both have more rushing success in this game. The Bengals had a season-high 32 first downs against the Steelers in Week 1 and 30 more first downs in their last game against Carolina (without Chase too). The Steelers just had 28 first downs against the Saints, their most first downs in a regular-season game since Week 2 of the 2018 season.

Most game scripts would seem to favor the over in this one. The Steelers could finally find their offensive footing and score more points than usual to compete with the Bengals. Maybe the Steelers just score their usual 14-to-17 points but the Bengals come through with 24-to-27 points in a solid road performance.

But the over is a bet I would take. Over 40.5 points has hit in 5-of-9 Pittsburgh games this year and in 6-of-9 Cincinnati games, including four straight for the Bengals. Let’s make it five straight.

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Frequently asked questions about the Bengals vs. Steelers game in Week 11

The game is being played at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Since 2007 when Mike Tomlin was hired, the Steelers are 15-3-3 ATS, the NFL’s best record over that time as no other team is above 69%.

You should check out our player prop picks and daily NFL predictions.