Bengals vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Preview: NFL Week 5 Predictions

Bengals vs. Ravens Week 5 matchup preview and current betting lines

After starting 0-2, the Bengals are right back in the thick of things with two straight wins over the Jets and 3-0 Dolphins. But they will face the best quarterback they have seen all season in Lamar Jackson, who should be leading his own undefeated Baltimore team at this point.

Unfortunately, the Ravens have blown two three-score leads in their last two home games: 21 points in the fourth quarter to Miami and 17 points in the second quarter to Buffalo. While the defense played the worst quarter of any defense this season against Miami, the offense was more to blame for the Buffalo loss. The Ravens failed to score on their last five drives and Jackson threw two interceptions in the fourth quarter, including one in the end zone in the final minutes with a go-ahead field goal in the team’s back pocket.

The Ravens have blown more 17-point leads in the last month than they have in the previous 24 seasons combined (1998-2021). Now they get to face Joe Burrow, a quarterback who set NFL records with two 400-yard games and 941 total passing yards in two games against this defense in 2021. Burrow basically got defensive coordinator Wink Martindale fired last year in Baltimore. Time for the Ravens to show this year is different as they try to take the division lead.

The NFL Week 5 odds have the Ravens as a 3.5-point home favorite. Can they close out a game at home?

Players to watch in the Bengals vs. Ravens game

Cincinnati Bengals

Ja’Marr Chase: He had 201 and 125 yards in the two matchups with the Ravens last year, but Tee Higgins has really caught fire as the other receiver in Cincinnati, producing numbers on par or better than Chase since December. Higgins had 194 yards and two touchdowns in the last Baltimore game, so it will be fun to watch how the Ravens defend both.

Baltimore Ravens

Marlon Humphrey: The Pro Bowl corner only needs one more pick this season to already tie his season high with three, but he was burned last year for 227 yards and two touchdowns when covering these Bengals. He did not play in the rematch in Cincinnati and had never allowed more than 32 yards in any game against the Bengals from 2018-2020. But this is a new rivalry with Burrow and company providing a different challenge.
Bengals vs. Ravens prediction

Our Best NFL Bets for the Bengals vs. Ravens game

We have two NFL Week 5 predictions for this matchup of division rivals seeking the lead in the AFC North.

Bengals vs. Ravens Point Spread Pick: Ravens -3.5 (+100)

The Bengals vs. Ravens spread opened with the Ravens as a 1-point home favorite, but the line has gone up to 3.5 at many places.

There will be a lot of attention on Burrow after last year, but this is really a case of the Ravens not blowing coverages and tackling better. The Bengals are not generating many big plays this season, especially on completed deep balls. Limit the YAC by making sure tackles and they have a chance to keep this offense in check. The Bengals won’t score 41 points again like they did in both meetings in 2021, including one in December where the Ravens were flattened by injuries.

But this needs to be the Lamar Jackson show. He slid in the MVP odds this week after that bad finish against Buffalo, a superior defense to the Bengals. He usually controls games against Cincinnati with his legs, and he has been throwing the ball very well this season until Sunday’s rain messed with both offenses. Look for Jackson and tight end Mark Andrews to bounce back in a big way in this matchup and get the Ravens the cover and win.

Also, the Bengals are not a big comeback team. Head coach Zac Taylor is 1-26 when going into the fourth quarter with a deficit of more than three points.

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Joe Burrow Prop: Over 273.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Unlike last week’s wet conditions against Buffalo, the field should be in good shape Sunday night with temperatures in the 50s and minimal wind. Let the ball rip as Burrow likely will in this matchup.

Burrow has passed for at least 275 yards in three of the four games this season, and we know all too well about the huge games he had last season against Baltimore. Most game scripts favor Burrow going over, whether it’s him trying to repeat last year’s success with big plays against this suspect defense, or him having to keep pace in a shootout with Jackson as the Bengals cannot expect to slam Joe Mixon into the defense to accomplish that.

To play devil’s advocate, there is an interesting split emerging now that Burrow has started 30 regular-season games, including 15 on the road and 15 at home. He is much more comfortable at throwing a lot at home than he is on the road:

  • Home: 70.9% completions, 8.49 YPA, 316.9 passing yards per game
  • Road: 64.0% completions, 7.01 YPA, 242.9 passing yards per game

That is a pretty huge gap in both per-play efficiency and gross average. Among 252 NFL quarterbacks with at least 30 starts, Burrow’s increase of 74.0 passing yards per game at home in his first 30 starts is the largest in NFL history.

In 2021, Burrow went over 273.5 yards in eight games and only one of those games was on the road. Fortunately, it was the 416-yard game, which he basically achieved in three quarters of throwing, in Baltimore last year.

The smart move is to not go overboard and expect Burrow to throw for 400 or 500 yards again, but over 273.5 should be an NFL bet of the week in this matchup.

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Frequently asked questions about the Bengals vs. Ravens game in week 5

The game is being played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland.

Lamar Jackson is 5-1 as a starter against the Bengals with four wins by at least six points. He has rushed for at least 88 yards in four of those six starts. He has thrown nine touchdowns to three interceptions with a 94.5 passer rating and 7.48 yards per pass attempt. The Bengals sacked him five times last season in only the third game of his regular-season career with at least five sacks taken.

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