Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions and Odds: Game 1

The top-seeded Miami Heat will start their playoff run at home against the Atlanta Hawks, who needed two wins in the play-in tournament to secure the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference. Can Trae Young lead another first-round upset for Atlanta?

The Hawks were just 43-39 this season, the No. 9 seed in the regular season, but they finished strong (7-2 record) before winning both play-in tournament games to reach this series in Miami. Trae Young shook off a slow start with a dominant second half to lead a comeback win in Cleveland on Friday night to avoid elimination.

But the Hawks are going to have to show more on the road. Overall, Atlanta is a disappointing 39-45 ATS this season, but on the road the Hawks are 15-27 ATS, the third-worst record in the NBA.

While the Eastern Conference was deeper than usual this year, the Miami Heat still claimed the best record (53-29). Miami is also tied for the fourth-best spread record at 46-35-1. The over has hit in 59.3% of Miami games, the second-highest rate in the NBA.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, April 17, 2022, 1:00 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Location: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Odds Analysis

The Miami Heat are a 6.5-point home favorite in this game. Miami is the superior, more rested team and is 3-1 (SU and ATS) against the Hawks this season.

The total for this game is 215.5 points. Miami scores an average number of points, but the Heat are an efficient offense, ranked 10th in Offensive Rating. The offensive-minded Hawks finished sixth in points per game, second in Offensive Rating, and 26th in Defensive Rating.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions

Miami Heat -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

The Hawks have a few streaky shooters, but so much of the team’s success relies on Trae Young to score and create at an elite level. Miami’s tough defense has done a respectable job in four meetings with Young this season. Against the Heat, Young averages 25.5 points, 7.3 assists, and shoots 43.9% from the field. Young has come out with really slow starts in both play-in tournament games.

The Hawks suffered a big blow in their win in Cleveland on Friday night when center Clint Capela injured his knee. This could sideline the top two rebounders for the Hawks with John Collins (finger/foot) already inactive. The Hawks are plus-3.9 points better with Capela on the court this season, and he has the team’s best Defensive Rating.

Expectations are that Bam Adebayo (health and safety protocols) will return in time for Game 1 for Miami, a big boost in this matchup. Jimmy Butler and the Heat were a big disappointment in last year’s playoffs, getting swept by the Bucks in the first round, but they were a success in the bubble the year before, reaching the NBA Finals before losing to the Lakers.

Young is going to have to play some real hero bal to steal wins in this series, but look for Miami to make a statement at home in Game 1 with a cover. The Hawks are an NBA-worst 6-18 ATS as a road underdog this season.

Over 215.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

The last three meetings between these teams exceeded this total, including Miami’s 113-109 win on April 8. Miami’s last five games have gone over 215.5 points. Before Friday night’s 107-101 comeback in Cleveland, the Hawks played 22 straight games at over 215.5 points.

The Capela injury comes at a brutal time for Atlanta as he is the anchor of the defense, the team’s best rebounder, and the Hawks are already missing John Collins to injury. Look for Miami to take advantage in a meeting between two top 10 offenses that should hit the over.