Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat NBA Playoff Picks, Predictions and Odds: Game 2

The Miami Heat began their playoff run with a dominant performance in Sunday’s 115-91 win over the Atlanta Hawks. Can Trae Young and the Hawks beat the odds to get back on track after one of their most disappointing performances of the season?

In Game 1, Miami led 23-17 after a low-scoring first quarter, but that ended up being as good as it got for the Hawks. Atlanta trailed by as many as 32 points on its way to a blowout loss. While the loss of center Clint Capela (knee) was significant, the Hawks simply had no answers for the shooting of reserve Duncan Robinson, who made eight threes off the bench to set a franchise playoff record.

Atlanta’s offense, ranked No. 2 in Offensive Rating, was also a complete dud. Trae Young scored a season-low eight points after going 1-for-12 from the field and 0-for-7 from three. The Hawks as a team shot 38.7% from the field. Atlanta is 1-13 when shooting under 41% this season. This was also the third time this season the Hawks shot under 29% from three against the Heat, a top five defense.

The Heat are now 28-1 when shooting at least 49% from the field this season. This team simply does not waste strong shooting performances. In addition to Robinson’s hot afternoon, P.J. Tucker returned to the lineup and made all four of his threes. Miami’s 35 assists were its second most in a game this season.

In addition to our predictions for Hawks vs. Heat, make sure to check out the rest of our NBA daily expert picks.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Game Info

Date/Time: Tuesday, April 19, 2022, 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: TNT

Location: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida

For information on where to watch this game, see our streaming guide.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Odds Analysis

The Miami Heat are a 7.5-point home favorite in this game, which is one point higher than the spread for Game 1 after Miami’s dominant win. Miami is now 4-1 (SU and ATS) against the Hawks this season.

The total for this game is 217.5 points, which is up two points from Game 1. Atlanta’s 91 points in Game 1 was the team’s lowest total in the last 45 games since the Hawks scored 91 points against the Heat on January 12.

Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat Predictions

Miami Heat -7.5 (-112 at FanDuel)

Last postseason, the Hawks were 3-0 on the road in Game 1. No such luck this postseason, but on the bright side, Young and the Hawks cannot play any worse than they did on Sunday, especially on offense.

Young is going to do better than eight points this time, but there is something fishy about his road woes this season. Young averages almost four points fewer per game on the road compared to home, and he shoots 41.4% from three at home compared to 35.0% on the road. Last season, no such split existed. In fact, Young averaged one more point on the road vs. home, and he shot almost identically from three no matter the venue (34.4% at home, 34.1% on the road).

The good news is John Collins played his first game in over a month, and the Hawks are going to need all the help they can get with Capela out for the time being. But while Miami got such a scorching game from Robinson, the fact is the Heat won easily while getting very little from Tyler Herro (3-for-11 for six points) and Bam Adebayo (six points on a season-low five shot attempts).

Adebayo was playing after a week in the COVID protocol, so the Heat may have been easing him back into shape. But while Robinson is going to cool down, the Heat can still get much more out of Herro and Adebayo while also having advantages with Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry.

Simply put, there is little reason to believe the Hawks are going to get a win in Miami when they are an NBA-worst 6-19 ATS as a road underdog this season. Go with the Heat to cover again.

Over 217.5 Points (-110 at BetMGM)

While the Hawks had played 22 straight games that went over 216 points, neither of their last two games have done so. There should still be some value in the over in this matchup. Miami is an efficient offense that has played well against Atlanta’s 26th-ranked defense, and the Hawks should inevitably score more than 91 points.

But it sure is interesting that the only two times in the last 46 games that Atlanta was held to 91 points, it was games against Miami. However, take note of that 115-91 Atlanta loss on January 12. The teams met again two days later in Miami, and the Hawks lost 124-118 in a higher scoring, more competitive game.

This time should be the same, though I still like the Heat to cover while the over hits as well.