NFL Super Bowl 57 Winner Pick and Odds
Here is where every team stands in the odds to win Super Bowl 57 going into Week 13 of the 2022 season. NFL futures and Super Bowl odds are from FanDuel.
It took until Week 13, but the Bills are no longer the Super Bowl 57 favorites. The Chiefs (+430) are just barely ahead of Buffalo just as they are barely ahead in the AFC race for the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage. But this also has a lot to do with seeing Von Miller carted off with injury in Detroit. It is not a season-ending injury, but Miller’s return is up in the air, and he was someone they specifically brought in to get over the hump for a Super Bowl. Hopefully he can still be back for the playoffs.
There is also the fact that the Chiefs have really one “hard” game left and that is in Cincinnati this week. The Bengals moved up more than any team in the top 12 this week (+2500 to +1800), and they have a shot to shoot up more next week if they can win that game, but it will be tough even if Ja’Marr Chase returns.
The Eagles’ gap over the 49ers and Cowboys is shrinking again, but at least we saw the Eagles score 40 points for the first time in Week 12. They remain the favorites in the NFC to win it all.
Realistically, any team outside of the top 10 is probably not going to win the Super Bowl this year, so you should focus your picks on the top 10 teams only. Even the Buccaneers are a big stretch, but that division is going to gift them a home playoff game and someone in this revamped NFC will have to deal with Tom Brady’s voodoo luck in January.
Team to Make the Playoffs Top Pick
Here is where every team stands in the odds to make the playoffs in the 2022-23 season as we head into Week 13. NFL futures odds from FanDuel.
- This week we moved the five teams who are mortal locks at this point to the top of the chart despite them not having a betting line available, and two of the most hopeless teams (Rams and Texans) who do not have betting lines available at the bottom.
- Essentially, the teams ranked No. 1-12 are fighting for the last nine spots, and the 49ers are all but a lock now as they finally lead the NFC West outright.
- The Giants are nearly in a must-win game as a home underdog against Washington as the Commanders now have the better playoff odds.
- The Chargers (-178) do not feel very safe at their odds, so they cannot afford a loss to the Raiders this week.
- Seattle somehow has gone from -220 at 6-3 to -355 after losing the last two games. Some of this is the decline of the Giants and having the head-to-head tiebreaker over that team.
- A sneaky big game is Tampa Bay hosting the Saints as New Orleans is only one back in the win column. We’d normally say the Saints have no chance, but they have won 38-3 and 9-0 in Tampa Bay in prime time the last two seasons. Now the teams meet this Monday night.
Breakdown by Team
Here is the playoff or Super Bowl outlook for all 32 NFL teams heading into Week 12 of the 2022-23 season.
If the Cardinals struggled this much to start 3-5, what’s going to happen when baseball season ends, and Kyler Murray has his hands on a new Call of Duty game? This team notoriously fades after October, but things have already been rough on both sides of the ball.
The Falcons possibly losing tight end Kyle Pitts for the season (MCL) should be a big deal, but they really have not used him the way they should this year. Pitts was only third on the team in receiving yards (356) and he caught just 47.5% of his targets this year. As a rookie, Pitts averaged 60.4 yards per game and caught 61.8% of his targets from Matt Ryan. The Falcons are barely getting by at 5-6 but they have a tough game coming up against a confident Washington team.
The Ravens nearly blew another 10-point lead at home to the Bengals, but Lamar Jackson was able to set up Justin Tucker for the game-winning field goal in a big win. The defense did a fine job of limiting the big plays for Joe Burrow that plagued them in 2021. Baltimore is in solid shape for winning the division, but it still needs to start playing better defense and more consistent passing offense if the Ravens are going to compete in January with Buffalo and Kansas City.
The Bills had lost 12 games in a row when they trailed in the fourth quarter, but Josh Allen ended that streak and improved his odds of winning the MVP with a signature game-winning drive in Kansas City. He has thrown for over 300 yards and three touchdowns the last three times he’s faced Kansas City. The Bills have arguably the best offense, the MVP at quarterback, and the best defense in the league as they head into the bye week at 5-1. They are doing everything they needed to to make 2022 their season so far.
Sam Darnold is back as Carolina’s starting quarterback after Baker Mayfield managed just one field goal in a 13-3 loss to Baltimore that the defense played well enough to win. But Darnold has not started a game this season, and he was 4-7 as Carolina’s starter in 2021 with nine touchdowns to 13 interceptions. It is unlikely to expect him to deliver in this latest starting stint, but the Panthers could still end up with a high enough draft pick to get the second-best quarterback in this draft as the Texans seem on lockdown for the No. 1 pick.
Chicago can become the first team in NFL history to rush for at least 230 yards in five consecutive games. Drawing the Detroit defense should be a big help to keeping that streak alive, but we have to give props to Justin Fields for turning things around after a horrific start to this season with his new coaching staff. The Bears are actually starting to get fun to watch on offense.
The Bengals believe if they run the ball like they did against Carolina (over 200 yards and Joe Mixon had five touchdowns), then no one is beating this team. They probably are right, but it seems unlikely the running game is going to eat up after it was ranked No. 30 coming into Week 9. The Bengals need to focus on getting Ja’Marr Chase back immediately, because this remaining schedule might be the toughest in the league.
The Browns had a rough game in Detroit taking on the Bills as Nick Chubb was held to 19 yards on 14 carries. It was the first time in his starting career that Chubb was held under 2.0 yards per carry, and that game may have ruined his chances at his first rushing title. It was one of the last things the Browns had to look forward to as they are now 3-7 with a game against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers up next.
Are the Cowboys the new “it” team in the NFC after demolishing Minnesota 40-3 on the road? We need to see the Cowboys follow it up on Thanksgiving where they are 1-10 ATS since 2011. The Giants are a division foe that is not as incompetent this year as usual, so we’ll see how Dallas fares now that the expectations are growing, and the team is trying to woo injured wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. to come ring chasing with them. But the defense is very good and Tony Pollard makes the offense more fun to watch.
At least we know who the worst team in the AFC West is now. The Raiders have more games where they blew a 17-point lead (three) this year than the Broncos have game where they scored 17 points (two). This offense is so bad at scoring under Russell Wilson that it’s producing 17 points at a rate on par with Jimmy Clausen’s 2010 Panthers and Blaine Gabbert’s 2011 Jaguars. Keep in mind those were rookie quarterbacks on bad teams. Wilson and coach Nathaniel Hackett continue to waste an excellent defensive performance from Denver.
Just when the Lions were getting notice for their incredible No. 1 scoring offense trying to cover up for the No. 32 scoring defense, they laid an egg in New England, losing 29-0 to fall to 1-4. Jared Goff has played better than expected, but more games like the one on Sunday, more losses because of this terrible defense, and the Lions may go for a quarterback with a very high pick in 2023 after all.
Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers’ first significant NFL game was against Dallas in 2007. His two most clutch playoff moments were in wins against the Cowboys in 2014 and 2016. He had one of his best game-winning touchdown passes and drives in Dallas in 2017. This is a team that has got the best out of him, but now the Cowboys are seeing him at his team’s worst. Can Rodgers conjure up one more great performance at Lambeau Field to welcome back head coach Mike McCarthy with the Cowboys? We’ll see.
If the Texans only manage a tie with the Colts and some wins in the division against the likes of Jacksonville and those Colts again, then it may be hard to justify bringing head coach Lovie Smith back for 2023. This team hung in there with the Eagles better than expected, but the limitations of the roster were clear as day. It also is not that attractive a job for incoming head coaches.
If you like chaos, root for Jeff Saturday to go 2-0 and hand the Eagles their second loss in a row this year. A lot of the NFL’s coaching network was riled up about the way Saturday was hired as Indy’s interim coach without any experience coaching in the NCAA or NFL. But he won his first game against the Raiders, and he showed that leadership and knowledge of winning football can go a long way. You don’t have to be working 100 hours a week and sleeping in your office every night to be a good coach in the NFL. Saturday’s tenure could bust a lot of myths about what it takes to be qualified for these jobs. Root for him to continue doing well, but it also wasn’t rocket science to go back to Matt Ryan instead of Sam Ehlinger at quarterback. That move never made sense by Frank Reich, especially the way he announced it would be for the rest of the season. Now he’s unemployed and Ehlinger is back on the bench where he belongs.
The Jaguars are an improved team this year, but at 2-5, the wins are still not coming, and it’s usually the same story each week. The Jaguars have lost 39 games in a row when they allow more than 20 points. The Jaguars are also 1-10 when trailing by one score in the fourth quarter with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. They came up literally inches short of pulling out the Giants game on Sunday, but it just seems like this team always loses those types of games.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has two home games in his career where he threw multiple interceptions and was held under 24 points. Both are against Buffalo the last two years. The Chiefs are still the second-best team in the AFC and maybe the whole NFL, but if they meet the Bills again in the playoffs, Buffalo is likely going to be favored in that game. And it will likely be played in Buffalo, the first true road playoff game for Mahomes.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders (2-4) have disappointed, but if they could have stopped Kyler Murray on one of the many critical fourth downs or two-point conversions in Week 2, and if Davante Adams cleanly catches a pass down the sideline against the Chiefs, this team could be 4-2 and leading the AFC West right now. That is how thin the margins are in this league. But the schedule softening up and Josh Jacobs on fire at running back could lead to a strong second half for the Raiders.
Los Angeles Chargers
In their last seven games, the Chargers have four game-winning drives engineered by Justin Herbert, and they blew two fourth-quarter leads against the 49ers and Chiefs. Almost every game comes down to the final minutes, and that is expected again in Las Vegas this week. These teams played a 35-32 overtime thriller to end the regular season last year, which is what sent the Chargers home and the Raiders to the playoffs. The Chargers really cannot afford to lose this game with the whole AFC East trying to make the playoffs as well as the Ravens and Bengals both ranked ahead.
Los Angeles Rams
If the Rams cannot find their mojo against a Tampa Bay team they have beaten three times in a row, they may be finished this year after getting swept by the 49ers. The division is looking harder to win by the week, and the Rams did not execute any blockbuster trades before Tuesday’s deadline like they did a year ago on their way to winning a Super Bowl.
It sounds crazy that Tua Tagovailoa is the first quarterback in Dolphins history to throw for 300 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in consecutive games. But then you remember that Dan Marino did not play defenses as bad as the 2022 Lions and Bears in consecutive games in his career. Still, it’s a good sign that this offense is consistently producing and not just resting on the laurels of that 28-point fourth quarter in Baltimore. This offense is lighting it up now with the best wide receiver duo in the league.
You like that? If we want to like the Vikings as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, then they need to go on the road and beat the Bills. If the Jets can beat these Bills, then why not Minnesota? The Vikings always fold in these spots, and the loss in Philadelphia in Week 2 is the latest example of that. However, the Vikings could catch a break here if Josh Allen’s elbow injury keeps him out. But don’t discount Case Keenum, a former Vikings quarterback, starting for Allen and still leading the Bills to a win. This game is Minnesota’s chance to show us things really are different this year.
New England Patriots
The Patriots (6-4) have allowed six points in the last eight quarters as Bill Belichick has helped the Colts fire their head coach (Frank Reich) and the Jets bench their starting quarterback (Zach Wilson). Does he have a dominant game plan ready for Kirk Cousins on Thanksgiving night? Cousins is 0-2 against Belichick and only scored 10 points in both games. Mac Jones is still struggling for New England, but this defense has a chance to lead this team into the playoffs again.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints lost 13-0 in San Francisco, the team’s first shutout loss since it lost 38-0 to the 49ers in 2001. But the Saints also have two of the NFL’s last five shutout wins, including a 9-0 win in Tampa Bay last year. Believe it or not, this 4-8 team is still in the hunt for a division title. If Andy Dalton can outplay Tom Brady, which sounds more plausible than ever before, then we may still have a race that goes down to the wire as it doesn’t look like Tampa Bay is figuring things out either.
New York Giants
Hard to be mad with the Giants going 6-2 before the bye, but this team’s reliance on close wins is going to catch up with them. Fortunately, the schedule continues handing out gifts with the Lions and Texans up next. They still have two games with the Commanders as well, though despite the difference in record, it is hard to say much separates the Giants from 4-4 teams right now. But Brian Daboll deserves to be right in the mix for Coach of the Year.
New York Jets
We’ll know if Mike White is a folk hero if he is still playing this well when the team travels to take on the Vikings and Bills the next two weeks. The decision by Robert Saleh to bench Zach Wilson for White may have just saved the Jets’ season, but time will tell. After White’s big game against Cincinnati last year, he was soon injured in his next game against the Colts. Let’s hope he stays healthy this time and we get a fair assessment of him. White is the first Jets quarterback since Ken O’Brien (drafted in 1983) to have multiple games with 300 yards and three touchdown passes.
The Eagles piled up 40 points and 500 yards of offense against the Packers. It was the most dynamic the offense has looked all season, and it is the type of performance we were waiting to see from this team that is expected to compete with the Cowboys and 49ers as the cream of the crop in the NFC playoffs. Jalen Hurts’ answer to losing tight end Dallas Goedert has been to run more often, but that may be something he wants to save for the biggest games.
The Steelers are all over the map after going from a 38-3 blowout in Buffalo to upsetting Tampa Bay 20-18 at home for the season’s first win by a double-digit underdog. The Steelers are a 7-point underdog again this week in Miami. You have to go back to 2000 to find the last time the Steelers were a 7-point underdog in three consecutive games. They went 2-1 SU that time. Can they do it again?
Is it finally going to happen? With a win over the Cardinals on Monday night, Kyle Shanahan will finally be above .500 for the first time in his career. The 49ers grinded out a tough win over the Chargers in prime time. Now we’ll see if they can get the job done on the road against a division rival.
Seattle heads into the bye after a disappointing loss in Germany, but you can’t argue with a 6-4 start when most people did not expect this team to win six games all season. Geno Smith has blown away expectations in what is technically only his third season as a full-time starter. It will be very interesting to see if this team finishes strong to make the playoffs as they are favored to do.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers enter the bye week at 5-5 and averaging 18.3 points per game. But the defense is No. 3 in scoring and just shut down Seattle’s running game in Germany. Given how shaky this NFC field looks with Philadelphia, Minnesota, Dallas, and San Francisco among the top competition, are you really going to count out Tom Brady and this team in the playoffs? We know they’re getting there by default given how bad the NFC South is.
It would be a big win for the Titans to come through in Green Bay as the No. 1 seed is still within reach for the second year in a row for this team. However, the lack of passing offense is likely to doom them in matchups like this just as it did against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Titans still have not scored more than 24 points in any game this season.
It has been some years since a Washington-Giants game was as big as the one in Week 13. The Commanders could really take a leap forward in the playoff standings with a win here. The Lions are the only team to score more than 25 points on Washington this season, and the offense just has a lot more confidence with Taylor Heinicke than it did with Carson Wentz.
What Are NFL Futures?
NFL Futures are bets you can make that will not be determined until later in the season, usually at the conclusion of the regular season or Super Bowl. There are multiple types available, and the NFL futures odds can be quite profitable if you make a correct wager.
Super Bowl Futures
You can bet on which NFL team will win the Super Bowl, and some sportsbooks will also let you bet on which two teams will be in the matchup. Betting on each conference winner is also available.
NFL Division Futures
You can bet on which teams will win the eight divisions in the NFL this upcoming season. Some sportsbooks will also have markets where you can bet on the exact order of the division race finish, or which team will finish second, third, or fourth in each division.
NFL Win Totals
You can bet on an over/under for total wins for each team in the upcoming regular season. Some alternate lines are available as well.
You can bet on whether or not each team will qualify for the NFL playoffs in the upcoming season.
Finally, some of the most popular NFL futures are betting on individual award winners. You can bet on who will win regular season MVP, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Coach of the Year, and Comeback Player of the Year. Some markets will even have an early Super Bowl MVP option.