NFL Win Totals Team by Team Breakdown for the 2022-23 NFL Season
Here is a look at the challenges faced by all 32 NFL teams halfway through the 2022-23 season. All NFL projected win totals are from FanDuel prior to Week 1.
Arizona Cardinals (O/U 8.5 wins)
The Cardinals have not won consecutive games in 11 months. At 3-6, the team ranks No. 16 in scoring offense and No. 31 in scoring defense. Kyler Murray is having the worst season of his career with lows in QBR, yards per attempt, passer rating, touchdown rate, and more. With HBO following this team for in-season Hard Knocks, we may be seeing the documentation of the final games of Kliff Kingsbury’s time in Arizona.
Atlanta Falcons (O/U 4.5 wins)
The Falcons (4-4) are just one win away from hitting the over in wins while leading the NFC South. Marcus Mariota is ranked No. 6 in QBR in leading the No. 6 scoring offense with a run-heavy approach despite Cordarrelle Patterson missing most of the season. This has been one of the season’s biggest surprises, and just imagine how good things could be without that bogus roughing the passer penalty on Tom Brady in Week 5. Still, it’s Atlanta leading the NFC South as we enter November.
Baltimore Ravens (O/U 10.5 wins)
The Ravens have held a double-digit lead in every game this season just like the Eagles have. The only difference is the Eagles haven’t trailed in the second half while the Ravens have blown three double-digit leads. But the Ravens are an improving team and still tough to beat behind John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. They could be a dark horse to go the distance, especially with the Chiefs and Bills looking vulnerable.
Buffalo Bills (O/U 11.5 wins)
Aside from a slip up in Miami, the Bills (5-1) have done everything they’ve needed to do going into the bye. Josh Allen is the MVP front-runner and just had a masterful game in Kansas City, ending the team’s fourth-quarter comeback drought with a signature drive. Von Miller had two sacks of Patrick Mahomes and has been worth every penny. The Bills have the inside track to home-field advantage and are the best team in the NFL. They can only lose to injuries and hurting themselves at this point.
Carolina Panthers (O/U 6.5 wins)
After losing 13-3in Baltimore, the 3-8 Panthers are turning to their third quarterback of the season in Sam Darnold, the starter to begin the 2021 season. This could be another final chance for Darnold in Carolina, and if it doesn’t work out, the Panthers should be all in on finding a new quarterback for 2023. Baker Mayfield, P.J. Walker, and Darnold are not the long-term solutions, especially for a team that will be hiring a new head coach as well.
Chicago Bears (O/U 5.5 wins)
The Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose four straight games after rushing for at least 160 yards. But that streak may end this week one way or the other with the team taking on the Jets. Running back Khalil Herbert is already on injured reserve, and now quarterback Justin Fields has a shoulder injury that could limit his running, but it is at least to his non-throwing arm. Still, we need to see Fields close a game out after the Bears could not get into field goal range late in the game for the third week in a row.
Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 9.5 wins)
The Bengals (6-4) are hot on offense with 30 points in four of their last five games. Joe Burrow already has as many wins (three) against the Steelers as Andy Dalton had in nine seasons. Now Burrow leads the Bengals into Tennessee, the site of their big road playoff upset. It would be huge if wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase (hip) and running back Joe Mixon (concussion) could play. It would be even bigger if they didn’t and Burrow still found a way to get the win.
Cleveland Browns (O/U 8.5 wins)
The Browns are quickly losing relevance after turning the ball over four times in a 38-15 home loss to the Patriots. Cleveland has blown three fourth-quarter leads, the most in the NFL. But the troubling fact is the Browns are going to be underdogs in the next five games too. By the time Deshaun Watson can come back in Week 13, this team might only be 2-9 or 3-8. It may be too late at that point.
Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5 wins)
Dak Prescott’s return from thumb surgery was rougher than the 24-6 final suggests against Detroit, but he looked a lot better than he did in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. The defense continues to be one of the best in the NFL. If that can keep up while the offense finds its way, then Dallas can be one of the top NFC teams this year.
Denver Broncos (O/U 9.5 wins)
After Week 3, the Broncos were No. 31 in scoring offense and No. 2 in scoring defense. After Week 10, the Broncos are No. 32 in scoring offense and No. 1 in scoring defense. Instead of improving on offense, things have arguably gotten worse. The injuries are not helpful, but this is still on Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett to figure out. It is hard to remember a more disappointing quarterback-coach duo than this one as far as a first year together with expectations goes.
Detroit Lions (O/U 6.5 wins)
We wanted to like the Lions this year, but the fact is they enter November with the worst record in the NFL (1-6) and the worst defense. The defense literally does nothing well, and the offense has been a complete no show in 10 of the last 12 quarters after a strong start to the season. It is hard to think Jared Goff is the long-term answer at quarterback here, and if this continues, it might not be long for Dan Campbell as head coach either. He is 4-19-1 (.188) with Detroit.
Green Bay Packers (O/U 10.5 wins)
We have reached the point of the season where Aaron Rodgers is calling out some of his teammates to be benched while pointing out he received his highest grade of the season in Sunday’s ugly loss to Washington. What a time for this 3-4 team to go to Buffalo on Sunday night. In past years, you would have assumed Rodgers would figure things out and lead an upset win, but this feels like a blowout in the making as things deteriorate in Green Bay.
Houston Texans (O/U 4.5 wins)
At 1-8-1, the Texans have benched quarterback Davis Mills for Kyle Allen. Mills ranks 30th, or next to last, in QBR (29.3) this season, more than 10 points below where he was as a rookie (41.2). Houston has scored more than 20 points just once this season, and Mills threw a pick-six early in the Washington loss on Sunday. Allen is not the long-term answer either, so look for someone like Bryce Young (Alabama) to be the quarterback in Houston next season. Look for a new head coach too.
Indianapolis Colts (O/U 9.5 wins)
In what has become the strangest Colts season in quite some time, former center Jeff Saturday is now the interim head coach after the team fired Frank Reich following an ugly 26-3 loss to the Patriots. See, they should have just stuck with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Things still would have been bad, but not 26-3 bad. Still, it is incredible to see a former player with no relevant coaching experience go from talking ball on ESPN to coaching his former team halfway through the season. This is either going to be an unlikely success story or a total disaster.
Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 6.5 wins)
If the Jaguars can’t beat the Raiders this week, they could be looking at a 2-9 start heading into Detroit when December starts. It is safe to say the 2-1 start was fool’s gold, taking advantage of the team’s usual voodoo at home against the Colts and Justin Herbert’s rib injury in Los Angeles. The Jaguars have been bad on both sides of the ball since Week 4, and Trevor Lawrence cannot buy a close win for this team. The Jaguars have also lost 40 straight games when allowing at least 21 points.
Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 10.5 wins)
The Chiefs lost to Buffalo in the Game of the Year, but it was another close, competitive one that could have gone either way. Still, you would have big concerns about a rematch, which will likely be in Buffalo now. This defense has allowed Josh Allen to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in all three meetings since 2021. The defense is also getting shredded weekly by No. 1 wide receivers. San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel is up next as the 49ers look for revenge for Super Bowl LIV. There is no Tyreek Hill on third-and-15 this time around.
Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 8.5 wins)
The Raiders have lost four games by 14 points and blown two leads of at least 17 points to take a 1-4 record into the bye week. It has been a very disappointing start for Josh McDaniels, but at least the offense is heating up the last two games. Now if only the defense can deliver and this team can stop playing one good half, one terrible half. At least the upcoming schedule looks doable for this team to get back into the wild card race.
Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 10 wins)
Has there been a more significant play this NFL season than the drive where Justin Herbert threw the pick-six to his fatigued tight end (Gerald Everett) in Kansas City? The Chargers might have won that game and escaped a rib injury for Herbert, who hasn’t looked that great in recent weeks. The Chargers are still tied for the second-best AFC record at 4-2, but this team does not look like it would stand a chance with the Bills in a playoff game right now.
Los Angeles Rams (O/U 10.5 wins)
After potentially suffering a second concussion in two weeks, Matthew Stafford’s season is in jeopardy of being over. At 3-7, the Rams’ title defense is effectively over too, and it will be in the running for the worst Super Bowl defense of all time. That title may belong to the 1999 Broncos, who finished 6-10, but at least they could argue John Elway retired and Terrell Davis was injured. These Rams have disappointed since opening night.
Miami Dolphins (O/U 8.5 wins)
The Dolphins are lighting it up on offense, but we’ll get a much better litmus test for this team when they’re not playing the likes of the Bears, Lions, and Browns. The schedule is going to get tough again, and if Miami is still winning and scoring a lot in those games, then we can say we have a legit contender for the Super Bowl here. But let’s not go overboard with the praise for beating the teams they have since Tua Tagovailoa returned.
Minnesota Vikings (O/U 9.5 wins)
The Vikings are 8-1 but they are doing it by being 7-0 in close games. None were more improbable than the win in Buffalo. The Vikings are the only known defense in NFL history to take the field in the final 50 seconds while trailing and still win the game. Josh Allen had no business fumbling that quarterback sneak for a touchdown. But the Vikings made the Bills pay in overtime to earn the win. Still, it is hard to trust this team, because you know the other shoe is going to drop on that close-game luck.
New England Patriots (O/U 8.5 wins)
Bill Belichick has a full-blown quarterback mess on his hands as neither Mac Jones nor Bailey Zappe may be good enough to start right now. Are we about to see them alternate quarters in what may be a lost season? The defense also looked stumped against what was one of the worst offenses in the league from Chicago. The Patriots (3-4) sit at the bottom of the AFC East, and if they are not careful, this could last for some time.
New Orleans Saints (O/U 8.5 wins)
Kudos to the Saints for competing hard every week despite a mountain of injuries to key players. Andy Dalton has earned the starting nod over Jameis Winston, but even after a 24-0 win over the Raiders to get to 3-5, it is still hard to see Dalton and head coach Dennis Allen being part of the long-term plans for the Saints. This team needs a hard reboot, though Alvin Kamara is still fun to watch when he’s scoring touchdowns like he finally did in Week 8.
New York Giants (O/U 7.5 wins)
We said before the season that the schedule was going to be very favorable for the Giants, but who imagined a 4-1 start with a win over the Packers in London? Even if the Giants falter against the Ravens, the upcoming schedule means this team could be 8-2 going into the rematch with Dallas in Week 12. New York is bucking most recent trends by leaning on a running back (Saquon Barkley) instead of the passing game and blitzing heavily on defense. We’ll see how long it lasts.
New York Jets (O/U 5.5 wins)
Is the Zach Wilson era in New York over? Not likely, but the team is benching the second-year quarterback after he was widely criticized for not taking any accountability in the team’s 10-3 loss to the Patriots, the second loss in three games to New England for the Jets. Wilson led the offense to a single field goal, had multiple interceptions dropped, and simply commented “No” when asked if he felt he let the defense down. Clearly, head coach Robert Saleh has seen enough and will start Mike White, who engineered the team’s greatest win last season in a comeback against the Bengals.
Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 9.5 wins)
At least we can squash the undefeated talk early. But the Eagles did not have an alarming performance in the loss to Washington. They doubled their season giveaway count, which can happen when you’ve been avoiding those unfortunate bounces all season. These were flukier turnovers than bad decisions or design. The Eagles should be fine but watch out for the run defense when it faces teams with better blocking and runners than what Washington had. This team does not look invincible by any means.
Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 7.5 wins)
Mike Tomlin’s timing of giving rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett his first start on the road against the Super Bowl favorites (Bills) was questionable to say the least. The result was Pittsburgh was a 14-point underdog for the first time since 1970, and even that wasn’t high enough. The Bills won 38-3 with Josh Allen throwing for nearly 350 yards by halftime. It was the first time Pittsburgh lost by 35 points since the 1989 season. Better days will be coming, but this team should not be trusted on the road against a halfway decent offense. Especially without T.J. Watt on defense.
San Francisco 49ers (O/U 9.5 wins)
The 49ers head into the bye at 4-4 with a sweep of the Rams in hand. It was a perfect game to showcase why the Christian McCaffrey trade was huge for this team, especially if it meant the Bills or Rams couldn’t get him first. McCaffrey was amazing on Sunday and the 49ers don’t win without him. This team could very well be in the Super Bowl again if it plays its cards right in the playoffs and avoids further significant injuries.
Seattle Seahawks (O/U 5.5 wins)
Who saw Geno Smith leading the NFL in completion percentage and having a team with two more wins than Tom Brady’s Buccaneers going into this Germany meeting in Week 10? It could be the story of the season as the Seahawks have won four games in a row by double digits. That happened once in the entire Russell Wilson era (seven games in 2014). This is getting very interesting, and it is increasingly harder to deny that Smith is a legitimately good quarterback given this opportunity.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 11.5 wins)
Did Tom Brady really come out of retirement and risk his family to lose a division race to Marcus Mariota and the Falcons? It would seem like the Falcons are in for a rude awakening this Sunday in Tampa, but the Buccaneers need to start playing better football. The offense had its best game against the Chiefs after playing poorly to start the season, but then the defense allowed more points in one half than it did in three games. Todd Bowles needs to right the ship down there.
Tennessee Titans (O/U 9.5 wins)
At 7-3, the Titans are thriving with a run defense that has held seven straight opponents under 80 yards, tied for the fourth-longest streak since 1970. The passing game has also gone over 250 yards in consecutive games, and we know Derrick Henry is always a beast. But we’ll see if the Titans can avenge their playoff loss to the Bengals this week in another big AFC game. Tennessee’s only loss in the last eight games was in overtime to the Chiefs.
Washington Commanders (O/U 8.5 wins)
Washington’s recipe for upsetting the 8-0 Eagles was not something other teams could copy, unless you think you can start 12-of-15 on third down and force three turnovers, including a fumble that had a missed face mask penalty. But Washington pulled it off and is still alive at 5-5. One thing is clear: the team responds better to Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Carson Wentz needs to stay on the bench no matter if he’s healthy. There is no way he pulls out that win in Philadelphia on Monday night.
Our Experts Best Win Totals Predictions for the 2022-23 NFL Season
Here are our best NFL picks for win totals odds this season. Note that these lines were set prior to Week 1.
Indianapolis Colts: Over 9.5 wins (-160 at FanDuel)
Last season, the Colts finished 9-8 despite:
- Starting Carson Wentz at quarterback
- Blowing four fourth-quarter leads (tied for most in NFL)
- Blowing three double-digit leads (most in NFL)
- Getting an MVP-caliber season out of rushing leader Jonathan Taylor
- Forcing 33 takeaways (second in NFL)
- Having the No. 2 average starting field position
- Losing by 15 points in Jacksonville as a 15-point favorite with the playoffs on the line
The Colts were 1-8 when they allowed more than 18 points last season. Having to be absolutely dominant on that side of the ball and hide your quarterback in big games is no way to succeed in this league.
Even if Taylor is less dominant and the defense does not recover so many fumbles, Matt Ryan is not going to blow this opportunity. Like Philip Rivers in 2020, Ryan will enjoy head coach Frank Reich taking advantage of his strengths and putting him in a position to succeed after he had his worst season with Atlanta. This is also going to be the best offensive line he’s had in years, led by All-Pro guard Quenton Nelson. This should be the best defense he’s had in years, led by All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard.
Ryan is past his prime, but he still has enough to win at least 10 games with this team and its favorable schedule. The Colts get four games against the Jaguars and Texans, and they should get back to beating the Titans. They also play arguably the weakest NFC conference (East).
Ryan is not going to Indy and instantly winning a Super Bowl like Tom Brady (Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (Rams) the last two years, but he is going to win the division and hit the over.
Seattle Seahawks: Under 5.5 wins (+115 at FanDuel)
I had to check these NFL win total odds twice, because it seemed too good to be true. While head coach Pete Carroll has had a good run, it is hard to imagine this rebuild year won’t be the worst of his coaching career.
The only time Carroll won fewer than seven games was his 6-10 season as a rookie head coach with the Jets way back in 1994. But after the Seahawks finished 7-10 last year with Russell Wilson starting 14 games, how do they expect to only decline one game with a quarterback room of Geno Smith and Drew Lock?
Smith won the competition in the preseason, but nothing about his career inspires that he’ll be good this season even if he gets to play with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf was a big disappointment last season, failing to break 1,000 yards. Lockett will miss the precision of Wilson’s passes, especially deep. The defense is also without linebacker Bobby Wagner (Rams) and basically everyone that made it a good unit years ago.
But the big reason to fade Seattle is the 2022 schedule. The Seahawks have to play 10 games against the loaded NFC West and AFC West. While they probably won’t go 0-10 in those games, it should surprise no one if they did. Road trips to New Orleans and Tampa Bay won’t be kind either.
That means the Seahawks would have to clean house in the most winnable games: Falcons, Lions, Giants, Panthers, and Jets. That gets you to five wins, but you know this team will slip up somewhere there.
It was a good run while it lasted, but this should be the year where Seattle finishes no better than 5-12, and the team can do something about the quarterback in April’s draft.
Miami Dolphins: Over 8.5 wins (-135 at FanDuel)
The Dolphins have had a winning record the last two seasons and still missed the playoffs both times. That hasn’t happened in the NFL since the Dolphins did it in 2002-03. It is time for that to change as Mike McDaniel takes over as the new head coach from San Francisco. He has followed Kyle Shanahan around since 2006 and should be able to implement a YAC-based passing game and zone run system that will help this team take off on offense even if Tua Tagovailoa is not a superstar quarterback in his third season.
This system has a long history of inflating quarterback stats for passers not deemed to be uniquely talented, including Matt Schaub, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo. In San Francisco, Garoppolo had the highest yards per pass attempt (8.4) of any quarterback born after WWII. Yet, no one traded for him this offseason.
Not only can McDaniel bring this system to Miami, but he is bringing serious speed and talent with Tyreek Hill and Cedrick Wilson Jr. joining Jaylen Waddle in the receiving corps. This passing game is going to open up after two years of Tua forcing throws into tightly covered receivers who couldn’t separate.
If Miami could win nine games the last two years, it can do it again (and more) with these improvements in place. McDaniel is a good pick for Coach of the Year too as he is going to earn much of the credit if this team makes the playoffs.
Always check back for more daily NFL predictions before making your bets.